Second 1, 25 x 0.30 matches my estimate pretty damn closely.
The Reddit geek who raked in $100,000 with 2 trades is 'taking a small break'
- Thread starter trader99
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Second 1, 25 x 0.30 matches my estimate pretty damn closely.
Isn't that cherry picking an optimum scenario out of a billion possibilities, I.E., it is most likely never going to happen?
Definitely. Just some people didn’t believe it was possible at all, or possibly received inheritance and are looking for ways to multiply their wealth.
I mentioned earlier you get better odds at roulette that pays 36:1.
Comparing your typical noobs on Wall street bets using options like lottery tickets to legendary traders is a hoot. The crowd on the site considers their trading style to be for degenerates with a YOLO philosophy - betting the whole farm on on trade since you only live once.
The best traders do swing at fat pitches - they have the experience and capital to aggressively size up while at the same time properly manage their risk on those not so common trades with high asymmetrical reward-to-risk at extremes.
Ex. - A highly skilled trader that may avg risking 60 basis points (0.60%), on the few fat pitch trades they take they may increase this to about 200 bps (2%). They aggressively leverage their profits without increasing their initial 200 bps of risk. A far cry from betting the whole farm on a trade.
This is the $34M trade made by CIS (trader in Japan) , he already had a very large acct made as a long time successful trader. Note how he starts small and leans into it, having a 1,700 contract short position on the Nikkei.
The best traders do swing at fat pitches - they have the experience and capital to aggressively size up while at the same time properly manage their risk on those not so common trades with high asymmetrical reward-to-risk at extremes.
Ex. - A highly skilled trader that may avg risking 60 basis points (0.60%), on the few fat pitch trades they take they may increase this to about 200 bps (2%). They aggressively leverage their profits without increasing their initial 200 bps of risk. A far cry from betting the whole farm on a trade.
This is the $34M trade made by CIS (trader in Japan) , he already had a very large acct made as a long time successful trader. Note how he starts small and leans into it, having a 1,700 contract short position on the Nikkei.
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What's the saying... I'd rather be lucky than smart.
In my book, he's smarter than 99% of the people, who just don't listen when you tell them, don't sell teenies!!! That's the real lesson here. The asshole on the other side that sold them to him thinking it was free money - or maybe he wasn't a stupid asshole, maybe he just got 'unlucky.'
"Eddie Choi turned less than $800 into nearly $108,000 by purchasing puts on Roku stock and SPY — the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund — then profiting enormously when they fell, Bloomberg reported. He learned how to trade options on WallStreetBets, a subreddit with the tagline "Like 4chan found a Bloomberg terminal."
Well if he only risk $800 for each trade, his one time profit can give him another 135 chances to win.
13.50 chances, not 135, and odds this stacked against you you'll get through that in no time.
@Turveyd, you might want to check your math. Rough cross-check: even if it was $1k per chance, that would give him 108 chances.