The Recession Is Over

Check out the Dow chart from 1937-1939. It looks somewhat like the current market.

Kass over at the TSCM has a rational view about where the market is heading. This rally will continue up to 1000 on the S&P but will likely trade sideways for years until the balance sheet of the consumer is worked down.

Of course there are economists from the Party of the Dumb like Mankiw who suggest negative interest rates to force people to spend. So expect the unexpected.
 
Quote from Roman Candle:

Now your thinking like a winner.

Why does it matter what he thinks?
He's been DEAD wrong about the S&P for the last 220 handles.
 
Quote from Roman Candle:

Here is what I see in my crystal ball.

I agree with that with two differences:

1. Pullback from the inverse H&S only to 825.

2. We don't last above 1000 for long or even fully get there - too much pent up selling waiting from scared 201k investors looking to get out of equities that they were long and wrong. Much mutual fund selling/repositioning to go into cash/moneymarkets/treasury funds. Will work out well actually replacing lost FDI into Treas.

But otherwise we're pretty close in agreement.
 
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