what’s wrong with only trading from the long side.
The recent drop in volatility / VIX.
- Thread starter Laissez Faire
- Start date
what’s wrong with only trading from the long side.
The last two years, if you don't count 2022.
World Oil demand in March was at an all time high. The US govt has sold 300M more then half the SPR in the last year. There is no "demand bust" and everyone is not calling for $100 Oil; most Oil bulls say $70-90 range.
Like most of these forecasts we can look objectively end of year plus see how they are doing. I've noticed a lot of these guys have zero accountability and show no shame regurgitating their guesses over and over again. Look at Ken Calhoun and his many crash forecasts on here since March 2020. His forecasts are objectively horrible; he claims they are good. At some point the truth matters even in this bizarro world in the US in recent years that Trump inspired.
Would love to see that quote.
The only thing I'm fearful about as a day trader is volatility going down and staying down.
I would welcome a market decline as it would mean opportunity, but it's not something I'm predicting or expecting as that's out of my lane. I just take it day by day.
Ok, I wasn't aware you were day trading.
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As a day trader I concern myself with statistics and probabilities. Market crashes are by definition very rare, so I don't go around expecting the very rare. I'll take that if/when it happens.
Most days by far are just the regular up or down - and I would never let my fundamental views or concerns (if any) influence my short term trading.
I have been trying for a few minutes to verify your claim and the best I can come up with is this chart. All it shows is a projection for 2023.
Jeff talks about that contango issue, which is way over my head, but apparently the curves for the different contract months are showing lower prices in the future because of this contango, but like I say, I'm no expert.
Also, I am in no way comparing Jeff to Ken. Heck, I don't even read Ken's comments as I have him on ignore as I find none of his comments useful.
If we look at the CL price chart, every since the high in March 2202, it certainly does look like a down trend. I added in the blue arrow to show the gap up after the surprise OPEC cuts, and sure enough, that wasn't enough to stimulate price as it filled the gap and continued to drop.
Of course oil can stay in the 70-90 range, but it looks like only because they keep dropping production and refuse to add any more capacity, which is what is happening I believe. But this doesn't mean there is growing demand. I think we can safely say that even if a major recession happens, oil demand will not fall off a cliff. Look at the chart above. In 2022 where the whole world shut down for at least a few months, we still only saw maybe a 5% reduction in demand??? For most of 2022 after March, many countries weren't open with restaurant shut and travel pretty much gone. And yet, its only a small drop in demand. The point is that if Covid caused a 5% drop in 2022, then clearly 5% is a huge number. So it seems to me like a small reduction in demand can easily point to major economic turmoil.
This is my source; take it for what it is. The point is all the narratives about falling demand are mostly projections in a big recession a theory I don't subscribe to. Airlines are fairly busy, in Canada the earnings numbers remain really good most sectors.
https://www.ief.org/news/global-oil-demand-climbs-to-a-record-high-in-march-jodi-data
If you look at actual worldwide inventories, factoring in the SPR, they have been dropping for ages.
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