You know it's been a dull day in the markets when a 15 point drop into the Close feels like a crash. 
The recent drop in volatility / VIX.
- Thread starter Laissez Faire
- Start date
You know it's been a dull day in the markets when a 15 point drop into the Close feels like a crash.
did u capture any of that 15 points move at the end of the day? you traded futes today? how did u do?
Captured a small piece of it.
Mostly long all day waiting for the pop that never came, so after that final failure to push higher I finally took the cue knowing very well that range expansion lower was likely.
You get the feeling that it's only NDX that's holding up this market.
so u green or red for today? if green, any green day is a good day i guess. i've only made $447 trading some es and crude oil today.
VIX still low, but ranges and the moves have been picking up a bit since I started this thread.
Lately, you've been overly negative about markets. Surely Calhoun is enough of a cautionary tale here to discourage such behavior. We are now seeing the prospect of the recession that has been talked about forever by traders and media may not even happen. Even if it does it will be a big nothing burger market wise. As I said last year, 2023 will be the year of changing narratives. The doom and gloom was way oversold and markets priced a lot of downside into the lows last year
I guessed a 10% up year in US indexes this year. That may end up being low, but most posting on here seemed to be suggesting 20-50% downside in 2023. Calhoun still thinks the SPX is going to drop 2000++ points any day now.
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Really? Where do you see that?
I don’t have my trade data open right now, but I generally play the long side more than the short side by a considerable margin. Including today.
Laz Ferrie is long only. The only time he put on a short trade, he shat his britches and covered for a tick loss.
Although I know to never argue with the charts, I do spend quite a bit of time watching videos, and I really like this guy, Jeff Snider.
https://www.youtube.com/@eurodollaruniversity/videos
His thesis, based on simply economic data, is that the highly inverted yield curves are saying rates will be dropping, and fast, and the only reason for this will be major turmoil. On top of this, he looks at how even with oil output cuts, the demand is falling faster than the supply cuts, and hence why oil came down quite a bit, even after the surprise OPEC output cuts. Everyone was calling for $100, and especially because there is no new supply coming on board, but even with this supply constraint, its not enough to elevate price since the demand bust will far outweigh the supply cuts.
He says over many videos that the China demand hasn't materialized, and the China re-opening isn't going to save the world economy. The numbers out of Germany are apparently quite bad as well. So while everyone is talking inflation, he says the markets are all saying deflation is coming because of an economic bust.
The shit hits the fan when the curves actually un-invert, so everyone is looking for that. On top of this, the Fed keeps saying how low unemployment is, but all previous recessions, based on his presented charts, show that recessions start when inflation is high, so unemployment isn't a leading indicator.
On top of this, he looks at all the notes from Fed meetings prior to the 2008 crisis, and those officials were saying all the same things. They were just as dumb then as they are now. He also points out that in 2008, it took months for things to go from bad to worse, all while the Fed was saying everything was contained. Basically, the few banks failures we had is simply the first act, and then we have a few months of silence before the next shoe falls.
LOL. Inaccurate, though. I even posted a short trade in this very thread. I'm long mostly, though. I don't see any problems with that. Even during the last two years there have been more points offered to the up side than the down side.