The reason I dont use any indicators

ironchef said:
No I don't. But as a mom and pop small trader, this is my understanding:


2. Unlike gambling, the edge and odds are moving targets and so the Kelly fraction is also a moving target.

3. In gaming, one can achieve terminal value with a large enough number of bets quickly. No so in investing/trading where your number of trades are usually not large enough to achieve statistical terminal value, or provide the correct Kelly fraction computation.



5...... most traders use 1/4 Kelly or less to further avoid the risk of ruin.

A further comment on Buffett and Soros: Their bets tended to be one off, so, as in the Bank of England bet, if the edge/odds are considered overwhelming (approaching 1) then an all in bet is not unreasonable.

Don't know if I make any sense.
More...
%%
Good points/sense. Trading is also unlike gambling/gaming also; in that some so called gambling winners get executed by the house/fellow players.

NOT all gamblers get shot in a casino concert, by a gambler, as over 555 did recently- i never got shot gambling- playing pool-gambling. Dont think Buffet ever did an all in position-maybe you know something i did not?? Carl Ichan did , for decades,well. + sold his casino, but dont know why he sold it; he sold CHK also@ a loss:caution::caution:
 
JigsawTrading said:
I am biased against indicators.

My thoughts are along the lines of - if one of those indicators actually worked - why on earth did they create another 5000 of them....
More...
Prefer 50 more than 500 ;
delayed edit , i meant 50 day moving average. I dont really consider a grid an indicator; its a measuring helper:thumbsup::caution:
 
Last edited:
murray t turtle said:
%%
Good points/sense. Trading is also unlike gambling/gaming also; in that some so called gambling winners get executed by the house/fellow players.

NOT all gamblers get shot in a casino concert, by a gambler, as over 555 did recently- i never got shot gambling- playing pool-gambling. Dont think Buffet ever did an all in position-maybe you know something i did not?? Carl Ichan did , for decades,well. + sold his casino, but dont know why he sold it; he sold CHK also@ a loss:caution::caution:
More...
You are right, unlike Soros on BOE, Buffett never went all in but swinging for the fence instead of bunting had always been his way when he saw a fat pitch.
 
speedo said:
It's a matter of having a trade plan with clearly defined signals and trade management rules. If you can't recognize a signal within a second or two, it's too complicated IMO. For a day trader, there should be no analyzing....there is a signal or there isn't....if there is, take it and manage the trade according to the trade plan.
More...
%%
I read faster than average, but it takes me much longer than 15 minutes to get a signal.All mine are entered in daytime; but my plan does require me to move by end of day, if the signal is triggered . I do think late @ night, but not near as fast, in the dark .LOL:cool: I tried MoMo indicator but it gets me out of trend way to fast:caution:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top