The reason I dont use any indicators

[Grantx]

Well now you see thats the key. Im not interested in individual candles, volatility patterns, volume profiling , orderflow pulling/stacking/icebergs ... the list is endless. All that stuff is just the same thing over and over but in different conbinations. One gets stuck seeing a lot of trees but no forest.

I believe the true power of technical analysis lies in market structure. Its really very simple. There is accumulation, mark down, and then distribution. Vice versa for the markup phase. This, for me, was a very powerful breakthrough in my understanding of market phases. It automatically cuts out a lot of superflous noise and allows you to stand back a bit to see the footrpints left behind by the large institutions. It is impossible for them to hide their true intentions. Once you determine where their interest lies your next challenge is finding the best place to enter in line with the overall plan. Thats a bit more tricky and sometimes it takes a few goes to get in.

 

[DTB2]

You can't turn negative probability into a positive one with money management , this is a fact and frankly to argue otherwise is just plain stupid .

Don't care about probabilities, it's positive expectancy that pays the bills.

 

[DTB2]

1K or 2k a year in profits from random entries doesn't exactly count as the positive expectancy or winning trades most of us are talking about. Can you make a good living trading random entries? That's what counts!

Can you make a living with it? Sure, with size.

 

[henry76]

Don't care about probabilities, it's positive expectancy that pays the bills.

I think we're talking semantics here , since there is probably no definitive definition of either we may well be talking of the same thing , I'm not sure what positive expectancy means , but I do know that in the long term(number of wins *size must be greater than number of losers *size) cannot be achieved through money management however prudent and carefull it is , for example when you play roulette probability is against you, play an infinite number of times and the probability of coming out ahead is also infinitely small .
As to the previous post above this by DTB2 , I think that says it all , random means random , yes you can make money from random markets the same way you can make money playing the lottery.

 

[DTB2]

I think we're talking semantics here , since there is probably no definitive definition of either we may well be talking of the same thing , I'm not sure what positive expectancy means , but I do know that in the long term(number of wins *size must be greater than number of losers *size) cannot be achieved through money management however prudent and carefull it is , for example when you play roulette probability is against you, play an infinite number of times and the probability of coming out ahead is also infinitely small .
As to the previous post above this by DTB2 , I think that says it all , random means random , yes you can make money from random markets the same way you can make money playing the lottery.

Citation needed.

 

[Xela]

Citation needed.

Not by me: even a skepchick like me will accept the contention as self-evident from first principles (though he should perhaps, strictly speaking, have said "... cannot be achieved by money management alone ...", but that was clearly his intended meaning, anyway).

 

[henry76]

Sorry DTB but
1K or 2k a year in profits from random entries doesn't exactly count as the positive expectancy or winning trades most of us are talking about. Can you make a good living trading random entries? That's what counts!

your reply "Can you make a living with it? Sure, with size."
If you believe this your no where as a trader. Not trying to offend you , but it really is ridiculous.

 

[henry76]

Criticism accepted Xena , I try not get competitive here , just a discussion of truth , though I do have those instincts , I try to keep away from it.I'm just trying to nail some hard truths , to me , if your going to make it trading you have to get away from any reliance on chance , there are so many traps chance can lay for you in this game.

 

[DTB2]

There are no secret great entries. Period.
Money management as in size control and letting winners run is all there is. Period.

Good luck to all. Not trying to convince anyone, just a statement of fact.

 

[henry76]

Letting winners run in a random mkt doesn't win on average , because random means random , if you believe that direction has some small amount of ongoing momentum , that;s something else , but it isn't then random .