The reality of "over-trading"

[Teycir]

If 90% is noise you should start to develop a real trading system, because you apparently see a lot of noise that is not noise at all. You classify it as noise because you don't understand it.
If you trade ES based on a strechted RSI 14, you can hardly speak about a trading system. You should try to build a real system.


Virtu financial's result for the first quarter of 2015 are: net profits $87.9 million. That is on average $11 per second, which means that with a assumed average profit of $11 per trade, it is about 100,000 times less than even 1 miion trades per second. And you speak about millionS of trades. Even if you take the 5 biggest HFT firms together you will never reach the numbers you speak about.



Very simple logic but, and because of that, you forgot a small part in your statement: profit per winning trade and loss per losing trade. If profit to loss is 2:1, your statemant is completely wrong.

I will not join this discussion any further because I notice that more and more discussions on ET have the same charateristics:

1. a lot of nonsense or at least uncomplete statements.
2. too many bashing.
3. too many discussion end in a fight to prove that the other person is an idiot.
4. the same subjects come back over and over again without any interesting result.
5. .......

I already have a trading system that is working and I'm living off of it. Your post is the most ridiculous piece of garbage I read for a long time. You are certainly losing $ in case you are not playing monopoly $ out of your mum's basement.
Concerning the " 51win/49loss" it is obviously an oversimplification for you simple minds so you can grasp my statement, I've written after 'positive expectancy'. Concerning millions of trades per seconds by HFT, I persist and I sign, HFT algos make even billions of trades in less than half a second each day in current markets and they are profitable. You are believing that only some specialized shops that do some HFT. Big banks do market making with HFT, arbitrageurs do HFT...etc. HFT is >=70% of the liquidity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading
The most ridiculous thing in your post is that you think simple strategies do not work, because they are simple (mean reversion system with few parameters).

 

[i am nobody]

I already have a trading system that is working and I'm living off of it. Your post is the most ridiculous piece of garbage I read for a long time. You are certainly losing $ in case you are not playing monopoly $ out of your mum's basement.
Concerning the " 51win/49loss" it is obviously an oversimplification for you simple minds so you can grasp, I've written after 'positive expectancy'. Concerning millions of trades per seconds by HFT, I persist and I sign, HFT algos make even billions of trades in less than half a second each day in current markets and they are profitable. You are believing that only some specialized shops that do some HFT. Big banks do market market making with HFT, arbitrageurs do HFT, HFT is 80% if the liquidity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading

Thank you, you confirmed my points.
I am impressed that you use wikipedia as your source. That shows how professional you are.
I will leave this thread to you now, for me this is irrelevant and my ego does not need this thread.
I don't speak about my profits, only dreamers and wannabees tell how "good" they are. Your reaction confirmed that too and shows what you really are.

 

[Teycir]

Thank you, you confirmed my points.
I am impressed that you use wikipedia as your source. That shows how professional you are.
I will leave this thread to you now, for me this is irrelevant and my ego does not need this thread.
I don't speak about my profits, only dreamers and wannabees tell how "good" they are. Your reaction confirmed that too and shows what you really are.

Wikipedia is too 'popular for you' LOL ? If I give you academic studies on HFT it would equal giving caviar to pigs : a waste. PnL on my ES mean reversion 'simple' strategy account http://postimg.org/image/7jgiwqnvj/ ES itself made +2.2% YTD with a lot of chop. I'll update in this thread my PnL by end of this year as I'm expecting more volatility to come, which benefits my strategy.

 

[globalarbtrader]

Having an edge doesn't have anything to do with arbitrary time frame settings. The longer you hold, the more you're entering into the world of "buy and hold". If your strategy produces returns that are not in excess of a buy and hold, or reduce risk exposure, you are wasting your time trading.

What does personal conviction have to do with possessing a mathematical advantage?

I disagree that edge and time frame are unrelated. HFT and long term traders are totally different skill sets.

Mathematically you will have a higher theoretical profit for a given edge if you trade more frequently, and there is likely to be a strong correlation between holding period and frequency of trading, except for some weird corner cases (like someone who does a 5 minute long trader once per year).

I'm assuming that 'high conviction' means 'higher edge', since thats what most people mean when they say that.