The reality in New York City and the economy...

Quote from marketsurfer:

i live in a direct water front suburb of manhattan, so close that if you go down 57th st and don't stop for the river you will be in my livingroom. I am in manhattan several times a week, i note some changes but things are still chugging along. i don't see these sub 2k one bedrooms in doorman luxury buildings, etc. i did get 75% discounts on several dream watches recently but that comes with the overall slowing. there has not been any decrease in tunnel or bridge traffic. manhattan is still alive and well as far as i can tell....

on a positive note, the cipriani platinum bull has RETURNED!! this can only mean one thing.... but note the 90% off window across the street---interesting

surf


16azhoi.jpg
More...



The city is still alive and kicking, but there are signs of a slowdown. There are a lot more vacancies in both commercial and residential. And the job market is very slow and declining which isn't going to help.

There are a few sub 2K one bedrooms in doorman luxury buildings downtown, but not many. Here's one: http://www.nybits.com/apartmentlistings/3ccbe827e1b046e7aa87006a017eb19b.html

Some people might say Gateway isn't luxury, but it's close enough!

http://robparis.blogspot.com/
 
Quote from robparis:

The city is still alive and kicking, but there are signs of a slowdown. There are a lot more vacancies in both commercial and residential. And the job market is very slow and declining which isn't going to help.

There are a few sub 2K one bedrooms in doorman luxury buildings downtown, but not many. Here's one: http://www.nybits.com/apartmentlistings/3ccbe827e1b046e7aa87006a017eb19b.html

Some people might say Gateway isn't luxury, but it's close enough!


http://robparis.blogspot.com/
More...

Whats funny is that when I was looking for places to live in 95" that was one of them and it was about the same price ...
 
Quote from robparis:

I do know what happened in NYC over the last few years. I've been living in it. I've watched at the price of apartments increased and I moved in with a roommate because of it. You can't blame this on greedy landlords. How can you explain why all of the sudden landlords turned greedy? Why didn't they do this 10 years ago?
More...

It's the new breed of landlords, the hot shot developers, hence the new cheaply built "luxury" buildings with "market" prices. Bloomberg's policies favored these guys, because you know, buying & selling appreciating real estate is considered economic growth & progress in this country.
If that is what you like to see, then you should enjoy the "progress" NYC will make in the next few years.


If the prices fall enough, as they should, people will move back into the buildings.
More...

Prices can't fall enough, those wonderful new luxury buildings have high maintenance costs & are highly overleveraged. They are unsustainable. The owners of the rental buildings won't carry the building at a loss, especially when leveraged (which 99%+ of them are). The real rent drops are from condo owners who are deluding themselves that it makes sense to carry their "investment" while they struggle to make ends meet.
It's the same thing that is happening in Florida, condo & rental buildings standing empty. It's not as simple as a stock price dropping due to an oversupply of selling.

It's time to pay the piper and it's not going to be pretty.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

but note the 90% off window across the street---interesting
More...

When those signs turn to "FOR RENT" or "FOR SALE" do you think it's going to be more or less interesting?

By the way, in case the middle aged B&T and euro wanna bees don't tip you off, cirpriani's is essentially a tourist trap. But maybe you have unique taste, I guess some people do like crappy pasta for $60 a plate.
 
Quote from Anaconda:


Prices can't fall enough, those wonderful new luxury buildings have high maintenance costs & are highly overleveraged. They are unsustainable. The owners of the rental buildings won't carry the building at a loss, especially when leveraged (which 99%+ of them are). The real rent drops are from condo owners who are deluding themselves that it makes sense to carry their "investment" while they struggle to make ends meet.
It's the same thing that is happening in Florida, condo & rental buildings standing empty. It's not as simple as a stock price dropping due to an oversupply of selling.

It's time to pay the piper and it's not going to be pretty.
More...



If the buildings are as unsustainable as you say, and the owners won't carry them as a loss, the owners will either try to unload them or go bankrupt. Either way, the building would go back on the market somewhere neat its actual value. Once the fixed costs drop, the rents will drop with it.

Let's assume that doesn't happen and that the rental buildings stand empty. That would mean that there are the same number of people competing for fewer rentable apartments. That should cause the rents to level off and the remaining buildings will become sustainable again. Either way, the market eventually levels off at a sustainable price.

I agree with you that it won't be pretty in the short term. (Well it will for me, I rent.) But soon enough the market will stabilize and land values in the city will start increasing again.


http://robparis.blogspot.com/
 
In the late 80's and early 90's prior to the tech boom commercial real estate and apartment buildings were going into chapter 11 at a pretty good clip in New York. The workouts went smoothly and there are still experienced players in that market. The problem as I see it is back then there were deep pockets to finance the bankruptcies with Chapter 11 financing .... this time around the downturn is not confined to just the US so the dollars to finance this will be difficult to come by and hence the cycle may last longer.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top