The real reason trading is difficult

tom123 · Jun 2, 2008

Since I'm new to ET...and I dont yet fully know who is an expert and who is a fake expert....(but I'm learning)..... why dont folks stop slamming each other for kicks and ....put your mind to test and let the results speak for themselves..... lets try the coming day's high and low.....
My analysis (remember I'm a newbie).is that PA for the euro/usd..... will top (if its lucky) at 1.5595...and then gradual slide to 1.55 area.....with a strong possibility of plunging to 1.5462...maybe even to 1.5418 and then back up to the 1.55 area.....and then to settle around 1.55 37 area for the next new moon (june 5/6 ?) ....and while I'm at it ,I see the next few weeks setting the tone for summer......down...... euro down toward the 1.50 area. next critical moment in Time is the new moon (june 5) around 1.5537

dandxg · Jun 2, 2008

IMHO the reason trading is so difficult is mainly due to the fact that we as traders make it difficult as was originally stated.

A decent trade plan with good MM and and consistent disciplined trader will make money.

How many are consistent and disciplined? Not many from the blow out rate.

shortie · Jun 2, 2008

Quote from Spydertrader:

Five years this month - started full time - with Equities and Two years ago switched to trading the ES. If you are going to flame somebody, you should try to do so with some degree of accuracy. Mandelbrot (formerly known as JimmyJam) doesn't trade full time - he told me so in NYC. Whereas, I do trade full time. Hopefully, you now understand the difference between shit you make up in your head, and actual facts.

- Spydertrader

Credit where due ... nice short call today.

spyder,
congrats on your five year milestone!
how much do you actually squeeze out from an intraday equity trade on average, in %?

piezoe · Jun 2, 2008

Quote from tom123:

As a new trader ,still studying and learning ,(4 months) ..... with only natural aptitude for data analysis,and intuitive vision....I can say with a fresh mind..... trading Is difficult if you dont have ALL the knowledge you need....if you havent yet developed the right knowledge skills....which is very complex, involves emotion and psychological skills as well as technical skills. I suspect it will be difficult Until all the skills are sufficiently developed.

.....and then....at that point.....it could be relatively 'easy' to trade correctly.

So far,I can see the game involves a deep understanding about Time.....and timing....and yes, doing what the market allows you to do.......I sense the Key is knowing the timing of When a price moves .....and in what way........and to understand Why it happens like that.... probably has to do with news events alot.... which is also part of the vast knowledge needed....
I'm not able to clarify much more...but that I also see the trendline picture shows clear directions if you know how to read it correctly. and there is an intuitive element to the vision.

Tom, you've got it (or will have it). You are very, very intelligent. That's obvious. Not so much news, be careful there. But you've got it. I can tell you've got it. Be persistent, it will take a while (actually a long while!). But you do have it. Don't get too complicated. Pay attention to both price and volume. Congratulations. Maybe read "the way of the turtles" if you haven't already. (Oh, and lots and lots of screen time.)

Ansare · Jun 2, 2008

Quote from dandxg:

IMHO the reason trading is so difficult is mainly due to the fact that we as traders make it difficult as was originally stated.

A decent trade plan with good MM and and consistent disciplined trader will make money.

How many are consistent and disciplined? Not many from the blow out rate.

Could not agree more. Getting out of our own way should be the goal.

limau2 · Jun 2, 2008

Quote from dandxg:

IMHO the reason trading is so difficult is mainly due to the fact that we as traders make it difficult as was originally stated.

A decent trade plan with good MM and and consistent disciplined trader will make money.

How many are consistent and disciplined? Not many from the blow out rate.

IMHO - also depending on market, some market is difficult than others so require diff. technique

Spydertrader · Jun 2, 2008

Quote from shortie:

congrats on your five year milestone!

Thanks. I only wish I had started the journey earlier in life. I might have then skipped the Masters in Biology.

Quote from shortie:

how much do you actually squeeze out from an intraday equity trade on average, in %?

I don't trade Equities Intra-Day - only the ES. However, my goal with Equities is to take a portion of the expected Price Movement. Since I only trade Equities which move 20% or more a minimum 5 times in six months (with the 20% or more Price move occuring over 1 - 8 days), my goal is to grab at least 10% by entering late and exiting early. In my first full year (documented in Journal I), I had 113% ROI. Others have since exceeded those numbers (haroki attained 130% last year).

As to an 'average' amount per trade, I have no idea, but you can find all the trades I made back then at the end of Journal I. The file contains actual dollar amounts earned or lost for each trade.

Good trading to you.

- Spydertrader

Mvic · Jun 2, 2008

Learning to trade is like trying to ascend from Dante's 9th circle of hell, most people never make it out, some are stuck forever in purgatory, and the lucky industrious happy few make it to heaven.

Trading is difficult for each individual for their own reasons.

Slave2Market · Jun 2, 2008

The real reason that trading is difficult is that very few traders have a clearly defined method or system. It usually takes a huge amount of time, effort and experience to develop a profitable trading method that can be objectively followed. The method does not have to be so rigid that it can be automated, but it needs to be rigid enough that a trader can go through a check list and confirm that the entry and exit criteria are valid. The most profitable stock trading method that I currently implement cannot be automated because it requires that the trader check the news and earnings release date before entering the trade, but all of the other criteria are explicitly defined. Most traders think that their method or system is objective, but it is usually very subjective which inevitably results in failure.

jem · Jun 3, 2008

O.k. my explanation was lost on a few of you. Maybe you are all disciplined.

I have taken thousands of trades and traded millions of shares and thosands of contracts. I was a daytrader who made 20-50 trades a day for 5 years and I daytraded for years after that at lower levels.

I would say they 95% of the trades I took when I first pulled up chart went right against me. probably hundreds and hundreds of trades.

Why?

Was I that unlucky on my impulsive trades? Was I unlucky on my signaled trades. I know from speaking with other traders- they have experienced the same thing.

On an intraday basis -

If the market is going to move in your favor - quickly - it will be tough to get the entry. As price will not be there very long.

However, if the market is going to move against you - you will plenty of time to get in and plenty of shares available.

Lets say you are a systems trader who sometimes interferes with your system.

Because the good trades are harder to get you are bound to get all of your bad trades but only some of your good trades.

If you have a short term system in which you get the signal and then have to make the trade - you may still run into the same problem.

I realize this is probably too deep for the people who have participated in the thread.

but if you have enough experience taking discretionary trades you probably understand.

For instance if you are buying into support and it is good support it is frequently hard to get filled and a good trade spot on lasts a fraction of your trading time frame. Where as if support is going to fail you will probably have all day to choose to get in.