The real reason for the extreme tough trading in the FX?

Quote from kxvid:

Some reasons that make FX very upredictable and very hard to trade:

The FX market isn't controlled by just speculators; institutional bank hedging of fx risk creates unpredictable swings in the market.

The is no "right" exchange rate for currencies. It is much easier to value stocks and bonds than it is to value exchange rates. Methods such as P/E, economic strength and expected inflation rates can be used to value stocks and bonds. Valuing relative cross rates is not as straightforward; investors must use much more sophisticated analysis to value currencies.

Manipulation. This is large amounts of manipulation of fx cross rates going on daily by central banks, hedge funds and others. Since the FX market is unregulated, this is entirely legal which only creates more incentive for more manipulation. The long term trend is hard/impossible to manipulate, but many, many intraday moves are pure manipulation.

Market participant positioning. In stocks for instance, the majority of participants are long. Which stocks go up, some participants will sell to lock in gains. This is why it is very rare to see a 500 point up day in the DOW for instance. In FX, there is no majority position. Participants are both long and short. An sharp swing upwards in the euro may continue rising as more participants have to cover their short positions. Speculators often see when this is happening and drive the prices much higher.
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Thanks kxvid!
Even after slowing down to 4-hr bars, I knew I had been trying to trade NOISE but I didn't know why.
 
Quote from livermoreorless:

I have been debating whether to diversify my trading into forex in addition to stocks and futures but I've read and heard from many other experienced traders that currency is actually one of the hardest trading instruments.

I looked at some of the EUR and GBP charts and must admit that pound-for-pound, it does look a lot faster/volatile.

I calculated some potential trades and the profits/loss would have been near 3x DJIA futures and almost 8x stocks.

Can anyone provide a reason for this large discrepancy?

Much appreciated
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this is the 1.post: he doesnt ask about leverage; everyone knows how that works.
He speaks about volatility and that you can make more money on EURUSD WITH THE SAME STARTING AMOUNT OF MONEY then on ES ;
simply because there are more swings during the day (or moves or cycles or whatever you call them)

that sayed, i speak only about EURUSD (or the EUR future) making the 500 pips, and yes, you have to catch most moves :-)
 
startetd 45 min ago on EUR:

70 ticks for now....

so now i have left 13hrs and 15 min for the last 430 ticks


thats about 30 ticks/hr...

should be possible


:-))
 
ScapGF, without commenting on whether it's "easy" or "hard" to trade FX, watch EUR/USD during the day and observe:

Up 10 pips, down 20, up 10 pips, down 20, up 10, down 10, up 30, down 10, up 40, down 10, up 10, down 10... and so on. If you're looking at 30 min bars then yes the movement isn't there but if you're a scalper looking at tick charts - well, there's easily 500 pips movement.

Now, whether it's easy or not to capture parts of the movement is a whole other matter.
 
right...
i use as my main chart the 700 Volume chart on the EUR
entrys and exits on the 234 Volume chart

works nice most of the time
 
now is 11.30 here in europe

trading only big moves, 180 ticks for now
trading smaller moves more :-)
and the real moving market on EUR starts with the US opening...
 
Quote from cocaineaddict:

I also think that the fx brokers are fighting with central banks for profit?

Someone pls correct me if i am wrong
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Central banks aren't out looking for profit. My understanding is that they are often the biggest givers of profit.
 
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