the REAL holy grail

[mind]

Quote from Handle123:

So reading about threads on this subject is a waste of time, my opinion.

(including this thread.)

 

[Shaqi]

Quote from Jerry030:

I'm not interested in your method but what kind of performance do you define as success?

In Forex mine are:

Win/Loss Ratio in $ > 80%
PF > 3
Total account doubling time < 3 months

mmmm - I can easily double a $5k in 3 days

mmmm - Doubling a $500k account can take 2 years -

the point is doubling an account is relative and not indicative of long term profitablility which is a more important matter

 

[Jerry030]

Quote from mind:

grats. we are right now going to launch our first system
on forex. we found that fx is special ... our other systems
don't test well on these ...

Is your system mechanical or model based?

I agree Forex is different. For reasons I haven't been able to determine Forex models much better than Futures.

Possible reasons might include: lack of central exchange and global distribution of major players, high transastion vol., or others I haven't thought of yet.

 

[Jerry030]

Quote from Shaqi:

mmmm - I can easily double a $5k in 3 days

mmmm - Doubling a $500k account can take 2 years -

the point is doubling an account is relative and not indicative of long term profitablility which is a more important matter

What are you trading that limits $500K to 2 years?

 

[swtrader]

Quote from mind:

1.) stop believing there is one.
2.) start digging.
3.) don't fool yourself. neither be too critical, nor too positive.
4.) get back to 2.

after having spend years and years in this game, that
is my conclusion. everything else is an illusion. this is
a job that is tough and these four points describe it.

one is missing:
5.) start ignoring holy grail threads ...

it takes a while until the 2.) to 4.) loop lets you out to
jump to 5.), ... and you can stay there only for a little
while, then it is back to 2.) ...

5) dont start new threads, when you really have nothing new to say, it wastes your time

move this to chit chat, please

 

[mind]

i do not distinguish between "mechanic" and "model",
it is not static, if this is what you mean. but it is not a
very black box either.

it is supposed to deliver a sharpe around 2. for the time
being trading EUR/USD only. want to see some data on
slippage and generally see how it is doing.

 

[mind]

Quote from swtrader:

5) dont start new threads, when you really have nothing new to say, it wastes your time

i know. just fall over these holy grail threads once in a
while and thought it is about time to state what i think
about all of them ... i already half regret having started
this one ... it is really a distraction ...

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from Jerry030:

What are you trading that limits $500K to 2 years?

This is because he is violating all sorts of money management rules with the 5 k account. And then people would ask the question, "Why do most traders fail?" or "Who makes up the statistics that show 95 percent of traders failing?" Once again, and finally, thank you for your time.

 

[Jerry030]

Quote from mind:

i do not distinguish between "mechanic" and "model",
it is not static, if this is what you mean. but it is not a
very black box either.

it is supposed to deliver a sharpe around 2. for the time
being trading EUR/USD only. want to see some data on
slippage and generally see how it is doing.

What do you do with the account statements you collect...sell the scrap paper to a recycler to offset your trading losses?

When is your therapist getting back in town...soon we hope.

The terms are somewhat unclear but in my usage a mechanical system uses linear rules to automatically trade. Things like:

1) If Hibert Phase >180 AND
2) if close of bar > MACD x AND
3) no Doji Star in last 7 bars

then buy

A model refers to a non-linear and/or complex stastical processes usually using neural networks, SOM, PCA or similar approaches. In these cases the modeling application generates it's own rules for when to trade automatically, The system developer avoids all that work in trying to find the "right" 8 indicators and how they interact to create a trading system. Also the accuracy is vastly better than linear crisp rule logic.

Slippage…who is your broker? I’m with IB on IdealPro. They look pretty good.

 

[Jerry030]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

This is because he is violating all sorts of money management rules with the 5 k account. And then people would ask the question, "Why do most traders fail?" or "Who makes up the statistics that show 95 percent of traders failing?" Once again, and finally, thank you for your time.

Yes, that and he may also be talking about stocks which has it's limitations in terms of making serious money.