copied from www.sfomag.com article October 2005 issue
DAY TRADING: IS TIME RUNNING OUT?
by: Philip Gotthelf
OK, weâve all heard about the day trader who shot his broker for lack of performance. However, this is not exactly a challenge of day trading as much as it may be the theme for a television drama. The question for the new age of market volatility is whether day trading really provides the returns commensurate with the thrills â depending upon oneâs definition of thrill. If you believe in the efficient market theory and agree that a growing number of investors have access to the analysis and execution platforms for this exacting investment practice, you may conclude that the clock has been ticking and time may be running out.
Thanks to the Information Age, most investors understand the concept of day tradingâto capture profits from small intraday price movements in everything from stocks and bonds to commodities. But before computerized trading platforms, the physical effort and time required to day trade prevented most individuals from doing it in the first place. Requirements to write an order ticket, time-stamp it, call it to the trading desk, have it wired to the floor, get an execution and receive the fill frequently consumed the very moments when the best profit opportunities came and went. This is not to say day trading was not done, but it was a trading specialty limited to the âdownstairs crowd,â or the floor traders. Needless to say, mechanized trading processes have revolutionized day-trading culture and spurred growth in the number of day traders.
Still, a computer cannot erase every set of pitfalls a day trader faces. In fact, the historical inadequacies associated with order processing parallel todayâs drawbacks. Despite lightening-fast trading platforms and electronic markets, one must still physically enter the order. An exception to this rule might be the fully automated trading system that permits a computer model to execute and monitor day trades as well as spot them. Such programs are rare even as computers and software models become more sophisticated.
More common is the workstation that the day trader attends to himself, where he selects trades based on a technical computer model, intuition or both. Once identified, the strategist must enter the trade, monitor progress and execute an exit. Of course, there are multiple ways to do this.
Day-Trading Methodologies
At first glance, day trading can appear to be relatively simple, particularly if the decision model is not too complex. Common methods include ratio-to-open, swing trading, five-minute bar charts or some other time increment, random market simulation and momentum riding. Letâs take a brief look at each one of these methods.
The ratio-to-open approach presumes a market will move a certain distance in either direction from the open. This is a truism, of course, because prices inevitably move up or down from the open; the key is to statistically determine the size and probability of the move. Ratio traders usually use historical data to create statistical profiles of price behavior called âhistograms.â These data representations provide special statistical measurements that give the probability of each move in accordance with its distance in much the same way a statistical model can predict the chance of a poker hand turning up as a royal flush.
Using the histogram, ratio traders enter buy or sell orders at the open with a predetermined exit based on the ratio from the open that yields the highest statistically determined payout. Often a risk-aversion model is added on top of this decision process to manage money. Using the two synergistic techniques, the trader hopes to capture consistent random price movements that are statistically determinable.