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The Rally
- Thread starter eagle488
- Start date
Quote from eagle488:
The next 3 years will be the biggest bull run there ever was and now I will tell you the 2 reasons as to why.
1. US Congress enacting 401k reform laws. More and more workers ratcheting up the amount of contributions due to greater awareness
2. Real Estate no longer a great investment. Need to make more money somewhere and that avenue is the stock market.
Nope, it wont be the hedge funds that will rule the next 3 years, but companies like Vanguard and Fidelity that will drive the rallies. 3% of the American public actually own stocks or mutual funds. You have a lot more ready to donate through the mutual fund avenue.
WTF will the liquidity come from? Home values? Colorado is becoming a foreclosure state. Your argument hinges on RE being a source of funds for equity investment. We're going to crash if that's your logic.
There are now two homes in my neighborhood that are in forclosure with 1:1 equity:loan value. I am talking about homes valued at $2mm with a mil in equity... and they're walking away from their IOs. Understand the severity of the situation: a guy making $250k minimum cannot meet basic obligations on his IO and revolvers, thereby walking away from $800k to a mil.
I'd love to hear a cogent argument for liquidity flows into equities. I am listening.
Quote from riskarb:
WTF will the liquidity come from? Home values? Colorado is becoming a foreclosure state. You argument hinges on RE being a source of funds for equity investment. We're going to crash if that's your logic.
There are now two homes in my neighborhood that are in forclosure with 1:1 equity:loan value. I am talking about homes valued at $2mm with a mil in equity... and they're walking away from their IOs. Understand the severity of the situation: a guy making $250k minimum cannot meet basic obligations on his IO and revolvers, thereby walking away from $800k to a mil.
I'd love to hear a cogent argument for liquidity flows into equities. I am listening.
bulls dont want to hear the word foreclosure.....pretty sad. The signs in the housing industry are pointing to a recession sometime in mid 2007.
$1,000,000,000,000 worth of ARMS to reset in 2007 and they think were going in for a softlanding.
Quote from S2007S:
bulls dont want to hear the word foreclosure.....pretty sad. The signs in the housing industry are pointing to a recession sometime in mid 2007.
$1,000,000,000,000 worth of ARMS to reset in 2007 and they think were going in for a softlanding.
What's a trillion between friends. It's only roughly equivalent to US GDP. Banks are your friend. Bernanke will try to bail out the public, but Benny is no Al.
Quote from S2007S:
Im not trading today, havent made a trade yet, waiting for results from the big tech names before I make any moves.
here, let me help you:
apple will decimate their 27% estimate yoy growth number on the back of macbook sales - the rotation of revenue will cause a flood of analyst reitts and upgrades over the next 2 weeks taking out 80 like a bad habbit.
the nasdaq short-squeeze will continue to build pressure. For those that think most of the shorts have covered, you are mistaken. some of these intraday bounces have been covering, but there is still a massive amount of equities short out there, many in the IBD top 10.
the low volume numbers lately are people that have been caught with their pants down(short) waiting for an exit. there is more pain on the way my dear, dear, shorts.....
Quote from S2007S:
bulls dont want to hear the word foreclosure.....pretty sad. The signs in the housing industry are pointing to a recession sometime in mid 2007.
$1,000,000,000,000 worth of ARMS to reset in 2007 and they think were going in for a softlanding.
all the more reason for the fed to pause - you think the fed wants to collapse the economy? c'mon, use your head for once....
Quote from krazykarl:
here, let me help you:
apple will decimate their 27% estimate yoy growth number on the back of macbook sales - the rotation of revenue will cause a flood of analyst reitts and upgrades over the next 2 weeks taking out 80 like a bad habbit.
I'll take that action. The Mac store in Reno is dead... apparently Reno hicks are XP users; that, or today's AAPL buyers are underwater come the CC. There were more Apple Store employees than customers this weekend.
I am not a bull or a bear. The only cohesive argument I have heard concerning a bull run is sometime between 2007 and I think 2012 ( don't hold me to these years) our country is going to have the largest shift in wealth in our nation's history as the baby boomers parents (who saved EVERYTHING) pass their wealth on to their kids (who are the BIGGEST SPENDERS in any generation) through inheritance.
So basically the "spend every dollar you have generation of today" is going to get a huge influx of cash over the next 5 to 7 years lets say. I personally know people who are literally counting the days till their parents pass, Yes I know it's pathetic. Now do you really think these boomers are going to put the cash away for a rainy day? Bwahahahahahahahaha. No freaking way. I can see all the McMansions being built, all the baby Hummers being bought, the vacation homes, the plasma TV's. Oh man, welcome to what will probably be the worst superficial period we have ever seen.
This is not my theory but one I hear quite often, even by the bears. So don't everyone attack me. I'm just the messenger. FWIW, most of the doom and gloomer bears think after this last surge, THEN we will go into the dark ages. LOL.
So basically the "spend every dollar you have generation of today" is going to get a huge influx of cash over the next 5 to 7 years lets say. I personally know people who are literally counting the days till their parents pass, Yes I know it's pathetic. Now do you really think these boomers are going to put the cash away for a rainy day? Bwahahahahahahahaha. No freaking way. I can see all the McMansions being built, all the baby Hummers being bought, the vacation homes, the plasma TV's. Oh man, welcome to what will probably be the worst superficial period we have ever seen.
This is not my theory but one I hear quite often, even by the bears. So don't everyone attack me. I'm just the messenger. FWIW, most of the doom and gloomer bears think after this last surge, THEN we will go into the dark ages. LOL.
Quote from krazykarl:
all the more reason for the fed to pause - you think the fed wants to collapse the economy? c'mon, use your head for once....
So they pause into a >.6% core. That's a positive? Where did you go to school, Guatemala? Yeah, man, you've got a convert. All is right with the World. Bread lines are a positive, free bread!
Quote from riskarb:
I'll take that action. The Mac store in Reno is dead... apparently Reno hicks are XP users; that, or today's AAPL buyers are underwater come the CC. There were more aApple Store employees than customers this weekend.
college students my friend - the great spenders of wealth....
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/11274/