The rally has been more impressive than the selloff was shocking

[Sekiyo]

Impressive wise : The sell off.
I mean it was quicker and deeper than the rally.

Surprising wise : Sell off + Rally
I mean the probability of a 36% sell off followed by a 22% rally ? Back in January ? Very low.

But I believe the implied low isn’t the true low.

 

[southall]

Surprising wise : Sell off + Rally
I mean the probability of a 36% sell off followed by a 22% rally ? Back in January ? Very low.

It wasn't a suprise if you remember the March 2000 sell off.

Same sort of thing, Nasdaq sold off around 36% and then a rally of around 30%.

Back in January 2000 not many were predicting that, maybe some older timers had a feeling but i was just a newb, I had no idea that sort of thing could happen.

But now as a 21 year market veteran, i had a feeling it might happen again at the 20 year aniversary in March this year. I just had no idea what the catalyst would be.

 

[zdreg]

Watch it drop back to the lows in the next month or two

It is wishful thinking because you missed the bottom.

 

[schizo]

Coming off an 11 yr bull and the last 10% run was fluff. But for a 28% rise in 3 weeks coming off the greatest longest bull mkt in history is even more incredible. The biggest black swan in history occurred and where right back to prices 7 months ago. Wow

This is "normal" in bear markets. Rallies are just as violent as the selloff.

 

[SanMiguel]

It is wishful thinking because you missed the bottom.

I don't buy long term only day trade.
Regardless, with the upcoming housing market crash, earnings hits, unemployment, it will happen. If we don't hit the lows, we're very likely going down again near them

 

[ElCubano]

This is "normal" in bear markets. Rallies are just as violent as the selloff.

Exactly.

 

[nillionaire]

We've seen numerous 5% or so drops the last few years followed by a 3-4% rally within 1-2 days. Pretty much the same thing that has happened the last couple weeks, except now the percentage moves are way larger given the VIX was over 50 instead of being just 15.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

I'm just making a comment . We had very little to no earnings growth the previous 12 months with a 20 p/e. I could care less as i'm stone cold day trader of 31 who just ripped 7 figs out of the mkt the past 5 weeks. If it goes up down or flat it matters little to me .I never argue with the market .

How's your girlfriend like it.

 

[SunTrader]

I'm saying the rally is more impressive in the context of we were in huge bubble in prices so i can make a case the s@p should have never been over 2800 max . To buy so aggressively when the mkt was still expensive at 2200 of forward earnings is shocking . I still think we go down to 1800-2000 and go sideways for yrs ala Japan.

Backwards. The fact the market was able to go as high as it did originally makes this rally totally unremarkable especially considering the Fed backstop behind it always and forever. Forever until ...

 

[SunTrader]

I'm just making a comment . We had very little to no earnings growth the previous 12 months with a 20 p/e. I could care less as i'm stone cold day trader of 31 who just ripped 7 figs out of the mkt the past 5 weeks. If it goes up down or flat it matters little to me .I never argue with the market .

Roughly speaking how much of that umm 7 figs was going down and how much going up?