The Psychology of Human Misjudgement - Charlie Munger

Futures Trade Psychology:

When it comes to the world of science, psychology isn’t one. It is a subject area that is too subjective; conclusions are mushy, and not falsifiable or repeatable. As a college major, it is not in the top 20 (or 30) highest paying majors but in fact one of the lowest. The same is true for graduate school salaries. Trading psychology recommendations are outright silly: Consider the statement: “The most important attribute for making money in financial markets is self-confidence” but how is confidence, self or otherwise, defined and measured? If self-confidence cannot be defined or measured, it cannot be understood so how can it be the most important? The same can be said for this statement: “Do not trade money until you are fully confident in your strategy”. Since “fully” cannot be measured it is useless. Consider the list of 6 keys to managing trade psychology which include “have an edge” (what is that exactly?); know thyself (who me?) and avoid emotional mistakes (My, oh my).
 
 
Dazz said:
self-confidence cannot be defined
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There is no need to define something to be able to benefit from it. You cant define emotion yet it is the basis for every decision you make. Follow that logic forward and see where it gets you.
 
Dazz said:
Consider the statement: “The most important attribute for making money in financial markets is self-confidence” but how is confidence, self or otherwise, defined and measured? If self-confidence cannot be defined or measured, it cannot be understood so how can it be the most important? The same can be said for this statement: “Do not trade money until you are fully confident in your strategy”. Since “fully” cannot be measured it is useless.
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Profitable = Confident

In the end is just a game of words, since that isn't the best word to use in the first place.
Certain - would be more useful.

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vanzandt said:
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...completely-useless.348752/page-9#post-5179598
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Yeah, saw that one previously. :thumbsup:
 
Grantx said:
There is no need to define something to be able to benefit from it. You cant define emotion yet it is the basis for every decision you make. Follow that logic forward and see where it gets you.
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A thing that cannot be measured cannot be understood; being unable to define emotion means you cannot define emotion, end of story; psychology = ignorance.
 
Dazz said:
A thing that cannot be measured cannot be understood; being unable to define emotion means you cannot define emotion, end of story; psychology = ignorance.
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I guess that is your experience. Mine is different. I have many success stories of traders who faced themselves and dealt with their psychology (fear / greed). Whether it was measurable or not isn't really the point. They dealt with past daemons, turned their trading around, and in many cases also changed their lives for the positive as a side benefit. They are successful traders now. . . so whatever you call it, it worked for them.
 
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Andrea Wylan said:
I guess that is your experience. Mine is different. I have many success stories of traders who faced themselves and dealt with their psychology (fear / greed). Whether it was measurable or not isn't really the point. They dealt with past daemons, turned their trading around, and in many cases also changed their lives for the positive as a side benefit. They are successful traders now. . . so whatever you call it, it worked for them.
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"A thing that cannot be measured cannot be understood" it is not my experience empty head, it is a quote from Einstein. All of your "success" stories cannot be verified, documented or measured. It is all worthless banter and useless dribble: "it worked for them" well "it" cannot be seen, verified, measured or authenticated.,
 
Carrying the concept another step, if a system (trading or otherwise) can not be coded, the system cannot be understood, seen, verified, measured, or authenticated.

I do not agree. Outcomes can be seen, verified, measured, and authenticated. Understanding of how or why are not necessary for a valid outcome, or an accurate assessment of such an outcome.

Furthermore, to think one can understand all facets about all inputs about anything is extreme arrogance leading to near zero external synapse options.

Lawnmower Man.
 
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Dazz said:
"A thing that cannot be measured cannot be understood" it is not my experience empty head, it is a quote from Einstein. All of your "success" stories cannot be verified, documented or measured. It is all worthless banter and useless dribble: "it worked for them" well "it" cannot be seen, verified, measured or authenticated.,
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So disagree with you, there are many aspects in an individuals life, in the quantitative world,
and society of evidence not measured but that can be understood. Also there are many things that are measured and are still not understood. Just because Einstein said it, unless you know the context of why he said it, doesn't mean applies here.
 
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