Just by looking at the official numbers you rarely get anywhere in economics. You have to think outside the box, try to see what´s behind the curtains... you have to look at the pieces of evidence around you and make yourself an educated opinion, quite often with little information... not too different from trading if you ask me.
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The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse
- Thread starter abiasi
- Start date
couldn't agree more... but that still remains OPINION...Quote from eusdaiki:
Just by looking at the official numbers you rarely get anywhere in economics. You have to think outside the box, try to see what´s behind the curtains... you have to look at the pieces of evidence around you and make yourself an educated opinion, quite often with little information... not too different from trading if you ask me.
what if the hard data being similarly assembled from all sorts of perspectives including outside the box type of research - think Freakonomics http://www.freakonomics.com/ for instance - shows a diametrically different picture to one's OPINION...
should one just brush off the data? more generally do you believe that ignoring relevant available data is compatible with performing serious research?
A good example.
I was looking at an article in reuters regarding the so called housing bubble. On the one hand you had the head economist at merryl linch saying we have a 35% chance of a crash in early 2007, on the other we have the head economist from wachovia saying that a crash in housing is impossible.
Both this guys are looking at the same data... they´re both well known economists... but they come to totally different conclusions.
No matter how purely you collect your data, how reliable the sources are or how unbiased you are. You´re always going to look at the data from several lenses... like your mind {your background, education, interests} and the mind of the guy who collected the data {his background, education, interests}
So in the end in such fields as economics, history, sociology or politics, we will always be left with nothing more than opinions. They can be educated opinions, like a mathematician´s opinion that 2+2=4, or a historian´s opinion that Napoleon was born in Corsega.
So, to get to the point, we may all look at the same data and come up with different conclusions. The OP might say that a crash in the dollar is inminent you might say it´s imposible and I can say is unlikely, cause in the end, that´s the whole reason why we have a market. That´s the beauty of it, none of us knows the future, and we can only hope to scent what the future is got in store for us by looking at the past. But in the end all we get is an opinion { as long as the future remains future; not present or past}
I was looking at an article in reuters regarding the so called housing bubble. On the one hand you had the head economist at merryl linch saying we have a 35% chance of a crash in early 2007, on the other we have the head economist from wachovia saying that a crash in housing is impossible.
Both this guys are looking at the same data... they´re both well known economists... but they come to totally different conclusions.
No matter how purely you collect your data, how reliable the sources are or how unbiased you are. You´re always going to look at the data from several lenses... like your mind {your background, education, interests} and the mind of the guy who collected the data {his background, education, interests}
So in the end in such fields as economics, history, sociology or politics, we will always be left with nothing more than opinions. They can be educated opinions, like a mathematician´s opinion that 2+2=4, or a historian´s opinion that Napoleon was born in Corsega.
So, to get to the point, we may all look at the same data and come up with different conclusions. The OP might say that a crash in the dollar is inminent you might say it´s imposible and I can say is unlikely, cause in the end, that´s the whole reason why we have a market. That´s the beauty of it, none of us knows the future, and we can only hope to scent what the future is got in store for us by looking at the past. But in the end all we get is an opinion { as long as the future remains future; not present or past}
agree again... opinions... and good example
however what piece of econometric or otherwise hard data would you say supports ANY VIEW that hyperinflation is on the horizon today? any more than, say, and i am not trying to be cute, the Arcturian attack is on the horizon?
I mean, in the Chit Chat section, no problem of course...
and, allow me to reiterate:
should one just brush off the data? more generally do you believe that ignoring relevant available data is compatible with performing serious research?
however what piece of econometric or otherwise hard data would you say supports ANY VIEW that hyperinflation is on the horizon today? any more than, say, and i am not trying to be cute, the Arcturian attack is on the horizon?
I mean, in the Chit Chat section, no problem of course...
and, allow me to reiterate:
should one just brush off the data? more generally do you believe that ignoring relevant available data is compatible with performing serious research?
I consider unlikely that hyperinflation is on the horizon... or that one single event can cause it. But I do see several things I dont like with the state of things, like the housing bubble... the multiple deficits, the war that just keeps getting less and less popular, unions choking companies into chapter 11, like airlines, Delphy, Ford and GM{some are not on the 11th yet, but trying hard to avoid it}.
About the data, corporations apply make up to their data... what makes you think countries don´t? Im usually more found of looking at simptoms than listening to the patients self-diagnose.
Another thing, try to avoid asuming that your conclusion from the data is an obvios one and the only reasonable one. If having such an opinion was posible there´ll be no market.
I usually dont post any articles, as I rather give my opinion and my point of view about things. But in the end, is just my opinion.
Peace out.
About the data, corporations apply make up to their data... what makes you think countries don´t? Im usually more found of looking at simptoms than listening to the patients self-diagnose.
Another thing, try to avoid asuming that your conclusion from the data is an obvios one and the only reasonable one. If having such an opinion was posible there´ll be no market.
I usually dont post any articles, as I rather give my opinion and my point of view about things. But in the end, is just my opinion.
Peace out.
i am with you for the most part here
you haven't addressed my questions re ignoring available relevant data but there was no obligation, i don't intend to push you
one minor thing though: not to say that it is impossible, but it is a LOT more difficult for G7-type countries to 'cook' econometric type data in any material way for any significant period of time, than for any corporation to fudge its financial statements at any time. again i don't want to argue whether or not it is a valid comparison to make, but i am sure you can appreciate that because of the sheer multiplicity of informed, smart, interested-one-way-or-the-other type observers, critics, data collectors etc and the multiple points of reference, perspectives taken to cross-check the data in as many ways, it is difficult to think that this type of macro-economic data is not the best possible available data to man to perform any econometric-based meaningful analysis. that's not to say that any such analysis is sufficient by itself of course, nobody is saying that...
but i still don't see how ignoring it can be justified
you haven't addressed my questions re ignoring available relevant data but there was no obligation, i don't intend to push you
one minor thing though: not to say that it is impossible, but it is a LOT more difficult for G7-type countries to 'cook' econometric type data in any material way for any significant period of time, than for any corporation to fudge its financial statements at any time. again i don't want to argue whether or not it is a valid comparison to make, but i am sure you can appreciate that because of the sheer multiplicity of informed, smart, interested-one-way-or-the-other type observers, critics, data collectors etc and the multiple points of reference, perspectives taken to cross-check the data in as many ways, it is difficult to think that this type of macro-economic data is not the best possible available data to man to perform any econometric-based meaningful analysis. that's not to say that any such analysis is sufficient by itself of course, nobody is saying that...
but i still don't see how ignoring it can be justified
Quote from 2cents:
Avalanche, just an opinion of course, but:
. the OP's article is a simplistic piece of political propaganda
. the ensuing discussion is at the core one of fact vs opinion
. serious econometric data from the US Public Debt Bureau is dubbed "fraudulent, cooked" by some random poster, serious econometric-type assessments from the CEPR are similarly ignored, to the benefit of some dialectical cum historical materialism type brainwash
What is it achieving for ET that this thread should still be sitting in the Economics section really? Isn't Chit Chat MADE for that?
Dear Moderator Avalanche,
I am PMing and posting this in opposition to the request by 2cents, who has requested you to move, to the Chit-Chat forum, the thread entitled "The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse". I am also requesting that you ban 2cents from EliteTrader, until such time as he convinces you he will cease and desist from his blatant disobedience to the ET rules and to your own instructions previously posted in the thread.
I believe that if you read the entire thread, you will find it more than worthy of the Economics forum, and that it contains very interesting material on topics of grave importance and usefulness to us all, and that there is no reason to move this thread to the Chit Chat forum. I believe you will also find that the request to move this thread, to the Chit Chat forum, is only the latest effort in a long campaign by 2cents, to disrupt this thread, and to insult and to abuse those who seek a serious discussion within the thread. His participation began by making constructive contributions, but this was gradually replaced by increasingly abusive conduct. If you reward this abusive behavour, by moving the thread to Chit Chat, you will encourage such disruption tactics in the future, and you will discourage people from investing their time, effort, and knowledge in serious discussions within the Economics forum. Why would smart people bother to participate in the Economics forum, if somebody like 2cents can manipulate you into discarding their efforts into the garbage can called Chit-Chat?
If you read the thread, you can verify the falsity of the accusation by 2cents, that I or others have been ignoring hard data in our discussion.
I will also note that after you posted instructions in this thread, directing 2cents to stop the abusive behavour, he immediately responded by disobeying you. His response was a post calling me a "proven intellectual fraud" and a liar and making many other false accusations having nothing to do with the thread topic. Hours later, another one of his posts stated:
Quote from 2cents:
i am not fighting... nor am i actually 'insulting' anybody... i am just stating a fact (kind of a ghandi approach if you like ;-) )... of course everybody is free to prefer opinions to facts...
It appears, from this particular post, that 2cents is mentally unable to understand the guidance you gave him, or ET rules, or the difference between acceptable and unacceptable conduct on EliteTrader. If he is mentally incapable of understanding the difference between acceptable and unacceptable behavour, then he will also be incapable of altering his previously unacceptable conduct. His determination to continue disrupting the discussion, despite your intervention, is demonstrated not only by his ongoing efforts to persuade you to move this thread to the Chit-Chat forum, but also by his blatant violation of your instructions to stop the personal attacks.
I therefore request that you ban 2cents from ET, until such time as he demonstrates an ability and a commitment to abide by ET rules and by your instructions as moderator.
Quote from 2cents:
. serious econometric data from the US Public Debt Bureau is dubbed "fraudulent, cooked" by some random poster, serious econometric-type assessments from the CEPR are similarly ignored, to the benefit of some dialectical cum historical materialism type brainwash
Quote from 2cents:
should one just brush off the data? more generally do you believe that ignoring relevant available data is compatible with performing serious research?
Quote from 2cents:
and, allow me to reiterate:
should one just brush off the data? more generally do you believe that ignoring relevant available data is compatible with performing serious research?
These accusations are false. The data were discussed meaningfully in this thread. The data were not ignored. Everybody should read this thread, and try to contribute to it, and protect it from interference. This is a good thread.
Quote from eusdaiki:
A good example.
I was looking at an article in reuters regarding the so called housing bubble. On the one hand you had the head economist at merryl linch saying we have a 35% chance of a crash in early 2007, on the other we have the head economist from wachovia saying that a crash in housing is impossible.
Both this guys are looking at the same data... they´re both well known economists... but they come to totally different conclusions.
No matter how purely you collect your data, how reliable the sources are or how unbiased you are. You´re always going to look at the data from several lenses... like your mind {your background, education, interests} and the mind of the guy who collected the data {his background, education, interests}
So in the end in such fields as economics, history, sociology or politics, we will always be left with nothing more than opinions. They can be educated opinions, like a mathematician´s opinion that 2+2=4, or a historian´s opinion that Napoleon was born in Corsega.
So, to get to the point, we may all look at the same data and come up with different conclusions. The OP might say that a crash in the dollar is inminent you might say it´s imposible and I can say is unlikely, cause in the end, that´s the whole reason why we have a market. That´s the beauty of it, none of us knows the future, and we can only hope to scent what the future is got in store for us by looking at the past. But in the end all we get is an opinion { as long as the future remains future; not present or past}
A very well done posting.