The Proposed Iranian Oil Bourse

[jimrockford]

2cents,

I was concerned that you might not be willing to rely upon the particular internet links I already provided, so I found one from an authoritative source, the Encyclopaedia Brittanica, at http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-58204:

Although the inflation was rooted in the huge debt that Germany had amassed in financing its war effort, the hyperinflation of 1923 was triggered by the French-Belgian military occupation in January 1923 of the German industrial district in the Ruhr valley. The occupation occurred in retaliation for Germany's having fallen behind in its reparation payments and was intended to force German industry to provide compensation for the French and Belgian losses. Rather than accede quietly to the humiliation of occupation, the German government urged workers and employers to close down the factories. Idle workers were paid during the following months with a currency inflating so rapidly that printers gave up trying to print numbers on bills. By mid-1923 the German mark was losing value by the minute: a loaf of bread that cost 20,000 marks in the morning would cost 5,000,000 marks by nightfall; restaurant prices went up while customers were eating; and workers were paid twice a day. When economic collapse finally came on November 15, it took 4.2 trillion German marks to buy a single American dollar.

Are you now willing to back away from your claim that:

Quote from 2cents:

jimmy, you are just digging a bigger hole for yourself, and impressive amounts of smokey blather just won't do... you are the one who linked public debt / gdp ratio to hyperinflation, weimar had nothing to do with that you haven't even begun to address any of my objections... but thats how it is with intellectual frauds, loads of posturing, no substance... not really a surprise

If you are not willing to back away from your claims, then I am sure everyone would be most interested in your own analysis of Weimar history. I'm sure everyone would be interested if you could engage in any discussion of history at all, for that matter. Please, by all means, discuss the topic, and try to give me and all the other frauds and morons on EliteTrader just a bit of an education. I have asked you, over and over again, to please explain your views on Weimar history, but I get nothing in response except insults and accusations that I am a moron and a fraud. Please, 2cents, teach us the non-moronic, non-fraudulent history of Weimar's hyperinflation.

 

[2cents]

Quote from BrandNewTrader:

The people running this country are far from fools. If there is a hard landing from all of these daunting imbalances allowed to develop because of bad economics and bad politics (twenty years ago we would have thought of these imbalances as "improbable", now we rationalize them comfortable as they continue to grow, which no real plan on how to correct them) then the responsibility ies with them. But their politicians and won't be held responsible. This is why I hate politicians. They aspire to positions in which you are entrusted with the utmost social responsibility but dont do much more than pander, mislead, and waste as much as possible. The ones who try to make real social progress are... where are they?

The people running this country know that there are very serious problems ahead in regards to the public debt, social security, pension fund solvency, etc. Their crime is deceiving the stupid public about it and allowing the buck to pass to the next generation of lawmakers. So, in this sense there may be no "$-hegemony conspiracy" but there is certainly much corruption and collusion within the US govt (always has been) that fosters and environment that allow these train wrecks to happen slowly over years and years. Think of the current state of the administration. the pres is a fool and his powerul appointees are all yes people who offer no counterbalance to the out-of-control executive branch . Right now, executive + legislative + judicial = executive branch. The republicans and democrats need each other to keep the puppet show going and maintain the illusion of balance, which is interpreted as political stability. (two party system is a feature evident in majority of the worlds most stable govs) The neutralization of the legislative and judicial branches represents a destabilization of the us political structure and is a potential catalyst for turmoil that may eventually cast doubt upon the stability of the US economy. And you can see all of this during the CNN press conferences and bush speeches. I wasn't born in the Us but have lived here for 10 years now and at first I used to think that most Americans were idiots. And many truly are. But it 's just a byproduct of living in one of the most affluent nations in the world and being surrounded by distractions (media, politics, etc): indifference. These situations have a funny way of punishing future generations in the most tragic and catastrophic manner...

look, i am with you for the most part here, but ranting never solves much, right? what are the alternatives? your best hope is that progress-minded domestic and cross-borders peer pressure type forces will help steer us all towards better places... a strengthening of the Eurozone would be a good step, there are encouraging developments in the Asean region... will it be too little too late? dunno... stuff like that i find more worrying http://www.earthisland.org/EIJOURNAL/new_articles.cfm?articleID=663&journalID=67 and there's tons more if you read the Earth Report and other non-partisan, NGO scientific type publications...

 

[eusdaiki]

I visited nicaragua during the sandinista regime in the 80´s. They had hyperinflation back then...

I changed a $100 dollar bill once... I needed a suitcase to carry it... it wasnt even funny having to pay 10MM cordobas for a freaking coke...

 

[2cents]

Quote from jimrockford:

I'm not, as you suggested, allowing your false accusations and other childishness to bother me more than a trifle.

that's quite a relief i must say! what else would you be resorting to if you were ever bothered more than a trifle, i can't even begin to imagine

as for weimar, you have quite aptly provided a summary picture of what happened, the funny thing is: whats caused and led to weimar hyperinflation is there for you to see written in fairly plain words and great contextual detail but you still can't seem to see it... or are you trying to say that we are any close today to anything like the context out of which the weimar hyperinflation occurred!

is that your idea of an analogy being 'relevant'? perhaps you're just a CLOWN then, an ACCIDENTAL FORM OF INTELLECTUAL FRAUD...

plse keep amusing us jimmy, the more you post the better it gets!

 

[2cents]

Quote from eusdaiki:

I visited nicaragua during the sandinista regime in the 80´s. They had hyperinflation back then...

I changed a $100 dollar bill once... I needed a suitcase to carry it... it wasnt even funny having to pay 10MM cordobas for a freaking coke...

yeah well if the jimrockfords of this world start printing their own currencies you BET there is gonna be some hyperinflation, man... whether they are publicly indebted or not, for that matter... and i am not even talking about their debt / output ratio... output, they have a lot of, useless for the most part, but A LOT...

 

[jimrockford]

Quote from 2cents:

that's quite a relief i must say! what else would you be resorting to if you were ever bothered more than a trifle, i can't even begin to imagine

as for weimar, you have quite aptly provided a summary picture of what happened, the funny thing is: whats caused and led to weimar hyperinflation is there for you to see written in fairly plain words and great contextual detail but you still can't seem to see it... or are you trying to say that we are any close today to anything like the context out of which the weimar hyperinflation occurred!

is that your idea of an analogy being 'relevant'? perhaps you're just a CLOWN then, an ACCIDENTAL FORM OF INTELLECTUAL FRAUD...

plse keep amusing us jimmy, the more you post the better it gets!

2cents,

No, I am not trying to say that we are close to hyperinflation or close to the Weimar Republic (although we have some parallels to Weimar, like the government's war on the middle class, and politicians who prefer to bankrupt the government, rather than tax the rich to cover the public debt). I am trying to say, among other things, that I don't think either one of us knows if dollar hyperinflation will occur. How many times do I have to repeat this, before you will finally comprehend it?

You have once again dodged my question on the topic. Once again, 2cents, now that you have seen some historical evidence: Are you, or are you not, backing away from your claim that public debt had nothing to do with Weimar Germany's hyperinflation? I think your repeated failure to answer this question is due to your unwillingness to accept the embarassment of admitting that you exaggerated the extent of your knowledge on the subject of hyperinflation.

Quote from 2cents:

jimmy, you are just digging a bigger hole for yourself, and impressive amounts of smokey blather just won't do... you are the one who linked public debt / gdp ratio to hyperinflation, weimar had nothing to do with that you haven't even begun to address any of my objections... but thats how it is with intellectual frauds, loads of posturing, no substance... not really a surprise

 

[2cents]

of course i am not dude... i stand by what i wrote, no ifs no buts... how is that not obvious to you, total mystery to me honestly!?

you ARE really a CLOWN, aren't ya?? or perhaps you now prefer to be taken for a clown, seems more honourable than an INTELLECTUAL FRAUD? perhaps you're both...

anyway plse keep going doesn't seem your brain is able to get thru the day otherwise... for a guy who's not even a trifle annoyed, thats quite interesting behaviour.... are you out trying to prove anything in particular by any chance mate? sthg like your good words got misinterpreted or sthg? anyway i cld be of service??

 

[jimrockford]

Quote from 2cents:

of course i am not dude... i stand by what i wrote, no ifs no buts... how is that not obvious to you, total mystery to me honestly!?

you ARE really a CLOWN, aren't ya?? or perhaps you now prefer to be taken for a clown, seems more honourable than an INTELLECTUAL FRAUD? perhaps you're both...

anyway plse keep going

OK, let us just be very clear. My understanding is that you have just confirmed that you are NOT backing away from your claim, by which you stated that: public debt had nothing to do with Weimar Germany's hyperinflation. Right? Please correct me if have misinterpreted you, or in the alternative, confirm if I have interpreted you correctly, OK? I'm waiting.

 

[2cents]

right now i am in a position to confirm that i am going to bed but rest assured i'll get back jimbo altho my answer shld be obvious to you can you guess? (clue: i stand by what i wrote, no ifs no buts) your a serious piece of laugh, i'll give u that, but a clown still...

 

[jimrockford]

Quote from 2cents:

right now i am in a position to confirm that i am going to bed but rest assured i'll get back jimbo altho my answer shld be obvious to you can you guess? (clue: i stand by what i wrote, no ifs no buts) your a serious piece of laugh, i'll give u that, but a clown still...

OK, 2cents, that is a confirmation. You confirmed that you are not backing away from your claim, and that you are standing by it. Your claim is that public debt had nothing to do with Weimar Germany's hyperinflation of 1923.

I have already posted extensive historical proof, including some from the Encylopaedia Brittanica, showing that excessive public debt was, indeed, a cause contributing to Weimar Germany's hyperinflation of 1923. I think that any reasonable, objective person, can see this from the information I posted. You haven't challenged the accuracy of the sources I posted in any way. You merely disagree with me as to their interpretation. I think any reasonable, objective person can see that I am correct about this point, and that you are in error, as to the link between Weimar's public debt and its hyperinflation. I think it then becomes clear that your shrill accusations and insults against me are motivated by ignorance, lack of integrity, and other psychological issues on your part.

I can also assure you that if you do a little research, you will discover that there is no serious dispute on this question, and that both economists and historians widely acknowledge that excessive public debt has contributed to many hyperinflationary currency collapses. You don't have to be a PhD to understand this. A government which owes money it can't repay has a powerful motive to print too much of its own currency, as a way of imposing the tax of inflation upon its subjects. The effort is to use this tax of inflation as a way to help pay the government's debts. If the government's debts are, like those of the U.S. government, denominated in the same currency controlled by the debtor government itself, then the motivation is even stronger, because the government can then use inflation to shrink the real value of its public debt.

None of this says we are going to have dollar hyperinflation, or that we are close to having it. All of my arguments are aimed at demonstrating that nothing we have seen, in this thread, from 2cents or anybody else, gives any reasonable basis to believe that a dollar collapse, panic, or hyperinflation will not happen. We must therefore conclude that maybe they will, and maybe they won't, until somebody comes up with a better counterargument against these unpleasant scenarios.

I think I have made my point, and so, I cannot promise that I will continue to respond to your insults and accusations. I would, however, still like to hear from you, or others, on the subject of the thread.