The Price Action Journal
- Thread starter SusanaDT
- Start date
- Status
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
When you say there will be a false breakout going "to 50 even" what does that mean?
Going to 50 what? ... points?
If so, that's a helluva false breakout!
ES 1250, subject to further, on-going analysis.
A breakdown here would be legit being 13 + points; my only point is that when, or if, it breaksdown according to my present readings it'll be a bear trap.
It's too early to tell. I have to see where the Euro session and early risers take it tonite and in the morning. Despite the early morning selloff Friday it was a fairly one-way bull bias hung-up in bear stops. It can almost be counted upon atleast a few institutionals will test bull strength reaching in the grab bag of tricks. There's bull price satisfaction at 1253 and a bull trendline if trading is orderly that should be hit at 1250 give or take a few ticks.
I anticipate strong bear movement to the trendline and a wicked strong bull bounce to rally hard. When? Don't know. But I'm fairly certain of my anaylsis this weekend.
No earth-shattering numbers scheduled for Monday. Should be green most of the day.
Do you find having a bias with predictions like this help you more than letting the market be your guide in realtime?
Excellent question! And it deserves an answer with depth. I value price action reading real-time. I crafted my own treatise and swing trend theory based on it. You may have noticed that here in the beginning of this journal. Though the simple fact is that if you're only trading 3 or 5 bar breakouts, and occasionally feeling risky and letting one run moving stops at corners, you may limit losses, but you also stunt profit potential. Cost, fees, commissions..A good living for some - not enough for others.
I'm a swing trader. Any of you swing with nothing but your bars or candlesticks? Not many. I could, but why not have confirmation, when confirmation is needed?
Take those 3 or 5 bar reversals or breakouts and model it to capture swings and the majority wont make it. Pure and simple.
You say my anaylisis is biased. Though I called the opening move to price. How can you be certain my analysis wasn't based as much as I had been able unbiased?
You need a strategy. You need to guage sentiment and market depth using whatever tools, or none at all, to accomplish that satisfactorily, and you trade based on what the market tells you, static and dynamic. Otherwise you're trading off the cuff haphazardly or with little gains. That may be good for you and most others. But if you're after 30 points, 60 points, 200 points even, you have to be willing to call a market, trade it and suffer the consequences if you're wrong. Who's interest would it be for me to with bias market call? Mine? Nope. I love my money thanks.
So, are we really on about your bias, and fears, or aren't we?
To your last point, the answer is no.
I don't hold ES overnight, let alone swing trade. And I think I'm doing a good job minimizing my risk and maximizing my gain intraday. For me, this business is about having a good batting average and not about grand slam home runs.
If you can swing trade ES with consistent profitability terrific. I guess you do need a forecast, bias, or good guess, to accomplish that. To trade intraday, go home flat, and be consistently profitable doesn't require any of that.
I don't hold ES overnight, let alone swing trade. And I think I'm doing a good job minimizing my risk and maximizing my gain intraday. For me, this business is about having a good batting average and not about grand slam home runs.
If you can swing trade ES with consistent profitability terrific. I guess you do need a forecast, bias, or good guess, to accomplish that. To trade intraday, go home flat, and be consistently profitable doesn't require any of that.
Yes, but the amount of risk taken is completely different between pure day traders and swing traders. I bet most day traders, myself included, are just not willing to take the extra overnight risk, even if it does mean a larger payday on the winners. I hardly risk anything per trade, and just make lots of them. Its a low stress trading approach to me.
+2.99, 4 trades
Mr Black did 9 trades all winner, 8 trades for 16.25 p, last trade was also a winner but it didn't list entry/exit so I couldn't tell. As I noted in the poll I liked both journals as there are more than 1 way to trade. Just because you don't understand what it is doesn't mean that it doesn't work.
- Status