Basic rules
The trading system itself is shockingly rudimentary. There's an oscillator (the so called Pretty Good Oscillator) that swings above and below zero. When the oscillator swings above +3.0, that's a BUY signal. When it retreats below 0.0, that's an EXITLONG signal. When the oscillator swings below -3.0, that's a SELLSHORT signal. And when it advances above 0.0, that's an EXITSHORT signal. It's pretty simple.
To break the PGO code down. Within it there is a moving
average which has a lookback of the sum of a few fib.
numbers.
When price = the moving average, PGO = 0. and when
PGO = 0 you exit. THUS, the moving average is your
stop.
The PGO value is equal to the number of ATR's between the close and the moving
avg. So if PGO=2.5, then the close is = MA+2.5*ATR.
All PGO is doing is saying "if the close is >= 2 ATR's
above the average then buy.
I have just started to play with the PGO and when applied to Tbonds and Yen, it works great. Of course the rate of return is dependent on the position size used.
My main initial concern was the lack of a hard dollar stop loss. My risk per trade can be huge. I tried a few hard dollar stops but overall performance was decreased. ie. larger drawdown, less net profit. Possibly if I use PGO as a setup and develop an entry trigger I will improve results. This may also allow me to use a hard dollar stop.
As you may observe, the moving average is the exit point. If you're following Mark Johnson's rules you'll be out, so the risk is the entry to MA. If that's too far away, and it very often is, then try the ATR or pivot low.
Alternatively, you could wait for a pullback and get in at a better price. You may be able to take on a larger position for the same risk, or at least reduce the risk. Expect to miss some trades though - pullbacks don't always happen.
The return of this system is impressive.
The trading system itself is shockingly rudimentary. There's an oscillator (the so called Pretty Good Oscillator) that swings above and below zero. When the oscillator swings above +3.0, that's a BUY signal. When it retreats below 0.0, that's an EXITLONG signal. When the oscillator swings below -3.0, that's a SELLSHORT signal. And when it advances above 0.0, that's an EXITSHORT signal. It's pretty simple.
To break the PGO code down. Within it there is a moving
average which has a lookback of the sum of a few fib.
numbers.
When price = the moving average, PGO = 0. and when
PGO = 0 you exit. THUS, the moving average is your
stop.
The PGO value is equal to the number of ATR's between the close and the moving
avg. So if PGO=2.5, then the close is = MA+2.5*ATR.
All PGO is doing is saying "if the close is >= 2 ATR's
above the average then buy.
I have just started to play with the PGO and when applied to Tbonds and Yen, it works great. Of course the rate of return is dependent on the position size used.
My main initial concern was the lack of a hard dollar stop loss. My risk per trade can be huge. I tried a few hard dollar stops but overall performance was decreased. ie. larger drawdown, less net profit. Possibly if I use PGO as a setup and develop an entry trigger I will improve results. This may also allow me to use a hard dollar stop.
As you may observe, the moving average is the exit point. If you're following Mark Johnson's rules you'll be out, so the risk is the entry to MA. If that's too far away, and it very often is, then try the ATR or pivot low.
Alternatively, you could wait for a pullback and get in at a better price. You may be able to take on a larger position for the same risk, or at least reduce the risk. Expect to miss some trades though - pullbacks don't always happen.
The return of this system is impressive.