The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

let me know if you are discerning enough to see the difference between my proper polling call on November 5th... (which was the point of the whole thread) which was 100 percent accurate ...

vs my personal desire to see Romney win?
 
just like now.

a proper template is the 2012 template give or take 1 or 2.

I am against hillary but when you unskew the polls which reveal their templates she is still leading in some of them.

I hope that the people turn out in numbers stronger for rs and weaker for ds vs. 2012.
But... that is a hope independent of what is a good polling template.
 
jem said:
let me know if you are discerning enough to see the difference between my proper polling call on November 5th... (which was the point of the whole thread) which was 100 percent accurate ...

vs my personal desire to see Romney win?
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Your Nov 5th post was very vague and did not say who was ahead or who you thought would win.Your Nov 4th and 6th post was more specific.



jem said:
when you unskew those polls Romney has a lead.

for instance that nbc/ wsj/ Marist poll is skewed to the Dems by plus 9.
That is crazy and irresponsible in a state where more people identify themselves as R than D.

That means Romney by 3 or more.
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jem said:
hey che ... did you even get the point of article.

If you unskew the polls Romney most likely wins..

so if you think we have a more dem turnout then 2008 as nate and your lefty pollsters say we will truly have a new obama-nation.
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jem said:
jem is walking up the street to vote.
he then has a bunch of business things today and will then fund his trading account... for his future journal.
he will then play golf
he will then go with the kids and wife to a dinner place to celebrate.
he will then returhn home, grab a beer and watch as the the media
explains this surprise Romney victory...

the media will be coming up with all sorts of excuses...

a. money
b. uninformed electorate
c. momentum
d. sandy backlash
e. anything but lousy results from a leftist.
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The IBD poll which has been accurate especially in 2004 and 2008 lists the following methodology. Check out the weighting. Also, right now this poll has Trump up 1 point nationally.

Results based on survey of 815 likely voters conducted from 10/18 - 10/23. Margin of error: +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party identification breakdown: (Unweighted) 261 Democrats/261 Republicans/275 Independents; (Weighted) 291/235/271. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica uses "traditional" telephone methodology using live interviewers for data collection for its public opinion surveys. Roughly 65% of interviews come from a cell phone sample and 35% from a Random Digit Dial (RDD) land line sample.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
The IBD poll which has been accurate especially in 2004 and 2008 lists the following methodology. Check out the weighting. Also, right now this poll has Trump up 1 point nationally.

Results based on survey of 815 likely voters conducted from 10/18 - 10/23. Margin of error: +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party identification breakdown: (Unweighted) 261 Democrats/261 Republicans/275 Independents; (Weighted) 291/235/271. IBD's polling partner TechnoMetrica uses "traditional" telephone methodology using live interviewers for data collection for its public opinion surveys. Roughly 65% of interviews come from a cell phone sample and 35% from a Random Digit Dial (RDD) land line sample.
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Most polls were accurate in 04 and 08.And most of those polls have Hillary ahead.
 
A guy walks into a bar and asks the bartender, "Hey - is that Trump and Pence over there?"

Yep - sure is. Go say hey; they're friendly.

Guy walks over to Trump and Pence, "Excuse me but I just wanted to say that I am a big fan of both of you. Whatcha talking about?"

Trump replies, "World War 3. We're gonna nuke 140 million Muslims and Hillary Clinton."

Guy inquires, "Why would you want to kill 140 million Muslim's?"

Trump laughs and points to Pence,.... "See, I told you no one cares about that bitch."
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
Review cell phones
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2012

Ibb/tipps last two polls had Obama + 1,Obama won by + 4.Multiple other polls were closer to the final result than Ibb tipp



image.jpg
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
If Hillary is elected, the country will have finally tipped over the edge. There will be no turning back. Soft tyranny will continue with more and more freedoms removed, less and less security employed, and higher and higher debts. The folks voting for Hillary don't fully understand what they are visiting upon themsleves and others. It will be a very very dark time in human history.
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Nice to see an actual trader who knows what's going on .... :(
 
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