The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

[jem]

that page says the final polls. As I told you before some of the final poll switched back to Obama.


2. Ok so Trump was ahead then Clinton was up big. Were those polls wrong?
the point I am making is that just because at some point in time the poll had one candidate ahead and that Candidate wins... does not mean those early polls are accurate or correct.

Your whole thesis about calling polls good predictors is specious and proven to be so by the fact that you just pointed out Trump was ahead and now hillary may be.

 

[Tony Stark]

that page says the final polls. As I told you before some of the final poll switched back to Obama.


2. Ok so Trump was ahead then Clinton was up big. Were those polls wrong?
the point I am making is that just because at some point in time the poll had one candidate ahead and that Candidate wins... does not mean those early polls are accurate or correct.

Your whole thesis about calling polls good predictors is specious and proven to be so by the fact that you just pointed out Trump was ahead and now hillary may be.

You said a week out,the polls posted were taken from the end of October .If a candidate takes a lead after being down for months it depends on how long it holds.Trump taking a one or two week lead does not negate a 2 month Hillary lead in The TS algo.In 2012 I didn't put Romney in the lead when he had his surge and I still have Hillary in the lead now even though Trump has had a good 2 weeks.If Trump wins most of the polls for around a month than I will start to worry.Trumps surge seems to be ending as Hillary is back to being ahead in most of the recent rcp polls.

 

[jem]

so they are only predicting when you feel they are predicting?

you realize of course polls are asking who would you vote for if the election were held today.
you realize that people change their minds, especially those in the middle.

if you want predictions... have random people make bets on who they think the winners will be. And then see who the good predictors were over time and use that group.

if you wish to take the current temperature... ask people who they would vote for if the election were today and use a good template.

Polls are not predicting anything before the debates and maybe even after.

You said a week out,the polls posted were taken from the end of October .If a candidate takes a lead after being down for months it depends on how long it holds.Trump taking a one or two week lead does not negate a 2 month Hillary lead in The TS algo.In 2012 I didn't put Romney in the lead when he had his surge and I still have Hillary in the lead now even though Trump has had a good 2 weeks.If Trump wins most of the polls for around a month than I will start to worry.Trumps surge seems to be ending as Hillary is back to being ahead in most of the recent rcp polls.

 

[Tony Stark]

so they are only predicting when you feel they are predicting?

you realize of course polls are asking who would you vote for if the election were held today.
you realize that people change their minds, especially those in the middle.

if you want predictions... have random people make bets on who they think the winners will be. And then see who the good predictors were over time and use that group.

if you wish to take the current temperature... ask people who they would vote for if the election were today and use a good template.

Polls are not predicting anything before the debates and maybe even after.

You should realize that barring a very significant event very few people change their minds,especially in presidential elections.Even if they change their minds temporally they usually go back to their first choice.

 

[jem]

really... hilllary has not gone down and trump gone up lately significantly because people change their minds?

it was just skewed polling?

You should realize that barring a very significant event very few people change their minds,especially in presidential elections.Even if they change their minds temporally they usually go back to their first choice.

 

[Tony Stark]

Romney had these same kind of short term raise in the polls, but voters voted for the one that most polls showed they would vote for.

 

[jem]

you are one stubborn democrat plant.
that is some awesome disregard for logic right there.
its not people changing their minds
its not polls being wrong...
its just what a temporary malfunction when polls don't predict the winner?

 

[Tony Stark]

you are one stubborn democrat plant.
that is some awesome disregard for logic right there.
its not people changing their minds
its not polls being wrong...
its just what a temporary malfunction when polls don't predict the winner?

Look at the polls as a whole jem.yes,the loser will get a few bumps but unless that lead is sastained over a long period it's likely just that,a short term bump.In this case Hillary is already coming back in the polls even after passing out and being dragged into a van.

 

[jem]

1. hillary is down 2 today in reuters 4 way poll today.
So I don't see any bounce back in the polls.
it was a plus 7 template which really down played independents in their template to only 14%.
want to know why?

They found that independents are now 39 for Trump 16 for Hillary.
A week ago it was 31 for Trump 22 for Hillary.

Hillary is completely toast if that holds up through election.
She just got destroyed with independents since her weekend at Bernies and being dragged into the van.


I hope you have now learned a few things from the Reuters Ipsos poll.

1. People especially independents do change their minds during the months leading up to the election.

2. Some polling companies manipulate their polls to make Hillary look as good as they can.

3. Hillary is down big right now because she has lost of ton of independents for multiple reasons.

4. Expect things to change

Look at the polls as a whole jem.yes,the loser will get a few bumps but unless that lead is sastained over a long period it's likely just that,a short term bump.In this case Hillary is already coming back in the polls even after passing out and being dragged into a van.

 

[jem]

and note on page 2 of the Economist You gov poll which has hillary in the lead by 2... it seems to have a 33 D 24 R 40 I template... and only 28 % is full time employed.

and 20% of the people said they changed the mind about who they will vote for in the last 3 months.