The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

[fhl]

In must win for Trump PA,Hillary leads by + 9.Poll taken after pneumonia gate.

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-trump-clinton-poll-20160917-story.html

New Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Clinton ahead in Pennsylvania



WASHINGTON — Democrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters as Republican Donald Trump continues to struggle among groups key to winning the state, according to a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released Saturday.

The survey, conducted Sept. 12-16, shows Clinton leading the presidential race here with support from 47 percent of likely voters who say they intend to vote for her or are leaning that way. Trump is at 38 percent, while 11 percent say they'd pick neither of the major-party choices, and 4 percent are not sure.

Clinton's lead narrows slightly to 8 percent when third-party candidates are included, with 40 percent for her, 32 percent for Trump, 14 percent for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and 5 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

READ: Muhlenberg College/Morning Call mid-September poll
A demographic breakdown shows Clinton holding a significant lead among women, college-educated voters, and those in the state's densely populated southeast.


Overall

We post a poll that has Trump ahead and Tony says it's inconsequential and all that matters is the rcp avg.

Then, like night follows day, when he finds a poll that has Clinton ahead, he posts it like it's the be all and end all of the debate.

Poor Tony. He thinks he's so smart.

 

[Tony Stark]

We post a poll that has Trump ahead and Tony says it's inconsequential and all that matters is the rcp avg.

Then, like night follows day, when he finds a poll that has Clinton ahead, he posts it like it's the be all and end all of the debate.

Poor Tony. He thinks he's so smart.

View attachment 166717

Notice I posted all rcp's recent PA polling at the end of the post.Go back and check if you missed it.

 

[fhl]

Notice I posted all rcp's recent PA polling at the end of the post.Go back and check if you missed it.

So what was the necessity of highlighting the recent poll? Which you inevitably reply is meaningless when we do it?

 

[jem]

oh look hillary is a ahead in a Nothing But Crap poll from NBC. They don't let us know who they are skewing it so their poll means nothing.
LaTimes polls has Trump up by 5.

 

[Tony Stark]

oh look hillary is a ahead in a Nothing But Crap poll from NBC. They don't let us know who they are skewing it so their poll means nothing.
LaTimes polls has Trump up by 5.

NBC polls has a history of accuracy in the 2008 and 2012 elections,LA Times does not.

 

[fhl]

NBC polls has a history of accuracy in the 2008 and 2012 elections,LA Times does not.

Aren't you referring to their final polls? The ones where they change their methodology to be more accurate, according to Silver? So how does the accuracy of those prove anything at all about these?

 

[Tony Stark]

Aren't you referring to their final polls? The ones where they change their methodology to be more accurate, according to Silver? So how does the accuracy of those prove anything at all about these?

The majority of NBC polls had Obama ahead in 2012,while the majority of Rasmussens had Romney ahead.That's how I judge accuracy.

 

[fhl]

The majority of NBC polls had Obama ahead in 2012,while the majority of Rasmussens had Romney ahead.That's how I judge accuracy.

Is that the way Silver computes the accuracy of polls? Or is your polling expertise better than his?

 

[achilles28]

America has totally changed guys

It's woken up. Globalism is dead.

Democrats still might rig the election and win

Game is up tho. Cat is out of the bag. Can't put the toothpaste back in the tube.

 

[Tony Stark]

Is that the way Silver computes the accuracy of polls? Or is your polling expertise better than his?

Silver is credible and I consider his anyilsis but I don't rely on his anyilsis alone.