The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
PPP had Obama ahead in their polls months before the election.
Here are some of their swing state polls around this time in 2012
Ohio,every PPP poll had Obama ahead months before the election.
Virgina,every PPP poll had Obama ahead months before the election.
Colorado,every PPP poll had Obama ahead months before the election.
Nevada,every PPP poll had Obama ahead months before the election.
PA,every PPP poll had Obama ahead months before the election.
Michigan,every PPP poll had Obama ahead months before the election.
Wisconsin,4 out of 5 PPP polls had Obama ahead months before the election.
Last edited:
do you understand what the New York Time reporter was saying. They were slanting their polls to Obama by manipulating the amount of black people they included in the poll -- keeping Obama's lead steady. Since Obama won... by your simple analysis they looked good.
by any thoughtful analysis they were untrustworthy despite the fact Obama won.
Picking the winner in a binary race does not make one a good pollster.
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...y-Polling-the-biggest-herders-in-the-business
2. A few pollsters are shameless about their herding. One of them is Public Policy Polling (PPP), an polling firm that conducts automated polls for both public consumption and for liberal and Democratic clients.
Take a look at this exchange, for example, between The New York Times’ Nate Cohn13 and PPP’s Tom Jensen. Cohn discovered that in 2012, the racial composition of PPP’s polls was correlated in an unusual way with President Obama’s performance among white voters in their surveys. If Obama was performing especially poorly among whites in one PPP poll, it tended to have a higher share of nonwhite voters, which boosted Obama’s result. And if Obama was doing relatively well among whites, PPP projected less nonwhite turnout, keeping his lead in check. As a result, PPP’s polls tended to show an unusually steady race between Obama and Mitt Romney.
by any thoughtful analysis they were untrustworthy despite the fact Obama won.
Picking the winner in a binary race does not make one a good pollster.
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...y-Polling-the-biggest-herders-in-the-business
2. A few pollsters are shameless about their herding. One of them is Public Policy Polling (PPP), an polling firm that conducts automated polls for both public consumption and for liberal and Democratic clients.
Take a look at this exchange, for example, between The New York Times’ Nate Cohn13 and PPP’s Tom Jensen. Cohn discovered that in 2012, the racial composition of PPP’s polls was correlated in an unusual way with President Obama’s performance among white voters in their surveys. If Obama was performing especially poorly among whites in one PPP poll, it tended to have a higher share of nonwhite voters, which boosted Obama’s result. And if Obama was doing relatively well among whites, PPP projected less nonwhite turnout, keeping his lead in check. As a result, PPP’s polls tended to show an unusually steady race between Obama and Mitt Romney.
PPP had Romney ahead in most of their polls in most of the states he won.Sometimes simple is best.The jem algo is ridiculously complicated and prompted you to start a thread saying Romney was the next President in 2012,and the complicated jem algo was wrong.PPP was right.You recently said the race is tied and is in Trumps hands,when Trump loses badly to Hillary I suggest you switch to something more simple when the polls show Kaine beating the Republican nominee in 2020.
1. PPP slants their pools and hillary pays them 760,000 dollars a month to do so. That you keep arguing this point shows you to be skewed.
2. I started that Romney thread 4 years ago... because I thought Romney gave a great speech and I hoped he would win. You can read my first post. I did not mentions polls. Ak47 brought up polls.
On page 3 of that 350 page thread... I said this. Which could not be more simple or correct.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/romney-looks-like-the-next-pres.240772/page-3
"The responsible way to poll would be to match your pool up with the turnout at recent elections.
if the election was 33% Dems 33% R 33% I and one percent other.
Your polling pool of likely voters should match the election pool.
But, it turns out if you read the data behind most of these polls, the left uses far too large a democrat pool on a relative basis. Someone linked to this on a recent ET thread.
--------------
nevermind I see it was covered above."
2. I started that Romney thread 4 years ago... because I thought Romney gave a great speech and I hoped he would win. You can read my first post. I did not mentions polls. Ak47 brought up polls.
On page 3 of that 350 page thread... I said this. Which could not be more simple or correct.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/romney-looks-like-the-next-pres.240772/page-3
"The responsible way to poll would be to match your pool up with the turnout at recent elections.
if the election was 33% Dems 33% R 33% I and one percent other.
Your polling pool of likely voters should match the election pool.
But, it turns out if you read the data behind most of these polls, the left uses far too large a democrat pool on a relative basis. Someone linked to this on a recent ET thread.
--------------
nevermind I see it was covered above."
Last edited:
It probably did at times... because there was a time when the polls unskewed or herded that many polls had him ahead too. so what? Its not about prediction its about good polling techniques.
How many times do I have to tell you... the polls unskewed or herded (as nate silver now says) and then Obama outperformed the polls (the average) by 3 or 4 points.
That could have happened for many reasons...could have been among other things.
1. ground game
2. supression of Romney vote
3. the storm and the hug.
4. the 100% pro Obama vote in many of the battleground states in the inner cities.
none of this changes the fact that Hillary Clintion's emails show that she pays PPP 760,000 dollars a month and demands from them that she looks to be winning by a big margin.
How many times do I have to tell you... the polls unskewed or herded (as nate silver now says) and then Obama outperformed the polls (the average) by 3 or 4 points.
That could have happened for many reasons...could have been among other things.
1. ground game
2. supression of Romney vote
3. the storm and the hug.
4. the 100% pro Obama vote in many of the battleground states in the inner cities.
none of this changes the fact that Hillary Clintion's emails show that she pays PPP 760,000 dollars a month and demands from them that she looks to be winning by a big margin.
Well the majority of the polls had Obama winning,especially PPP.I'm confused about the jem algo and its purpose. The jem algo criticizes PPP, but PPP results are super accurate,and not just before the election but months prior.
Currently who does the jem algo have ahead and by how many points?
Hillary's lead in NC is getting bigger,ahead in 6 out of the last 7 polls,including PPP.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hi...carolina-pennsylvania-email-questions-linger/
Poll: Clinton leads in North Carolina, Pennsylvania
as email questions linger
The presidential race heads into the home stretch with Clinton in the lead, but questions linger for both her and for Donald Trump.
Play Video
CBS News poll shows Trump trailing Clinton in key states
For Clinton, it is whether she can move historically high unfavorable numbers, and turn that polling lead into actual votes; for Trump, it is whether he can change the minds of enough voters beyond his durable base, and take back key battleground states in which he trails. It is a race in which at least one-third of each candidates’ voters say they’re motivated mostly by opposition to the other candidate, and one-quarter feel they’re merely settling for a choice between candidates they aren’t happy with. It is not so much that voters are undecided between the two – few actually are - but rather that they appear unconvinced by either one.
This week, Clinton leads in two new polls of states that Trump needs to win, given his current electoral map: Clinton leads in Pennsylvania fairly comfortably by eight points, 45 percent to 37 percent, and she is up four in North Carolina, 46 - 42 percent.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hi...carolina-pennsylvania-email-questions-linger/
Poll: Clinton leads in North Carolina, Pennsylvania
as email questions linger
The presidential race heads into the home stretch with Clinton in the lead, but questions linger for both her and for Donald Trump.
Play Video
CBS News poll shows Trump trailing Clinton in key states
For Clinton, it is whether she can move historically high unfavorable numbers, and turn that polling lead into actual votes; for Trump, it is whether he can change the minds of enough voters beyond his durable base, and take back key battleground states in which he trails. It is a race in which at least one-third of each candidates’ voters say they’re motivated mostly by opposition to the other candidate, and one-quarter feel they’re merely settling for a choice between candidates they aren’t happy with. It is not so much that voters are undecided between the two – few actually are - but rather that they appear unconvinced by either one.
This week, Clinton leads in two new polls of states that Trump needs to win, given his current electoral map: Clinton leads in Pennsylvania fairly comfortably by eight points, 45 percent to 37 percent, and she is up four in North Carolina, 46 - 42 percent.
Nate Silver and the New York Times reporter told you otherwise.
Hillary's $760,000 a month payment and her email demanding they make her look better told you otherwise.
Hillary's $760,000 a month payment and her email demanding they make her look better told you otherwise.