The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

so NBC is showing a big post convention bounce for hillary..

should there be any wonder.
R D I
They went from 31 32 36 on July 25 to today.. 30 36 42.

as their clinton lead went from... clinton by 1 to clinton by 8.

The reality is that if they had the same template Clinton would have gone from 1 to 3.



https://www.scribd.com/document/319896703/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-7-25-731

—
7/31 30 36 33 17/18---
7/24 31 32 36 17/11
7/17 29 33 36 17/4
7/10 27 33 38
 
in parts a good article and a misleading article.

1. the polls this far out from the 2008 were skewed...many oversampled democrats by 6 to over 20 pooints. They unskewed in front of the election.
when they unskewed Romney actually was in the lead in some of them. But, the storm the hug and the ground game probably did it for Obama.

that is what some of these polls have a tendency to do... they change their samples a few weeks in front of the election so they don't look bad after the fact.

2. the author said... And it’s not crazy to think Democrats will have an advantage in party identification in 2016. With a controversial nominee, many Republicans might not want to identify with the GOP, and may be calling themselves independents.

I said...
In this thread I stated that we should use previous elections as the template. which means the samples should be a little democrat rich by 3 to 4 points depending on the amount of independents used. I do hope more Rs and Is turn out... but that is a hope.

3. So the polls which have more than 4 points to the dems need to be unskewed. so when you unskew to the 2012 template Hillary may have a lead just outside the margin of error at the moment.

4. Additionally if you look at the yougov poll which has hillary in the lead by 7 points... yet the internal break down shows that Independents favor Trump by 4 points. The race really has to be very close.

5. I think it will depend on never hillary bernies vs the never trumps.

I think all Trump should be focusing on is the disaster that Hillary will cause if she gets to appoint 3 justices to the supreme ct.

I think he can still win easily if he sticks to a core message.








gwb-trading said:
The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/
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Sorry, I was not able to post while hillary was in the lead because I was out partying with Lochte after the races and I got robbed at gun point.
 
same universe... per your link.
they report the same thing for rasmuessen
not sure why they don't have the usc poll
they have a reuters poll which recently "adjusted" its methods to show more global warming .... I mean more clinton. (If I remember the news stories last week.)




Thursday, August 18
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 41, Trump 39, Johnson 9, Stein 3 Clinton +2

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 41, Trump 36 Clinton +5

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 39, Trump 35,
Johnson 7, Stein 2 Clinton +4

Nevada: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson Suffolk University* Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 5 Clinton +2





Frederick Foresight said:
Parallel universe?

Meanwhile, in this universe: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
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