The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
You can't follow a thread? Is it too hard for a french fry canuck?
Try following your own breadcrumbs:
hahahahahahahahaha
The only justification for laughing at what you posted is if you don't believe it and are laughing at those who do. If you actually believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and are laughing about it, then "patriot" is not the first word that comes to mind in describing you.
I have only started checking the polls recently... but so far it seems this cycle fewer of the polls are revealing their D vs R vs I breakdown. They are therefore much harder to unskew.
So in short they are less useful and we can't know if they are more trustworthy before or after the conventions.
So in short they are less useful and we can't know if they are more trustworthy before or after the conventions.
I would choose the 2012 election as the starting template. (you could make a an argument for some other templates but the previous presidential election is the least biased choice on the surface.)
I think that saw 51 percent Obama vs 47 Romney.
So now when making the 2016 template... I think acceptable templates should have no more than 4 more dems than republicans. But as we increase independents you should go to maybe 3 more dems than repubs. 38 D, 35 R, 27 I... give or take a few independents.
I see some polls like the force independents into D or R... So then you can go back to 4 more Ds than Rs as you return closer to 51 vs 47.
===
I note Hillary and Trump both have high similarly high unfavorables.
and if there is an x factor its that trump turned out a lot of primary votes and he leads with independents right now. Therefore crooked polls will have a very small amount of Independents.
I think that saw 51 percent Obama vs 47 Romney.
So now when making the 2016 template... I think acceptable templates should have no more than 4 more dems than republicans. But as we increase independents you should go to maybe 3 more dems than repubs. 38 D, 35 R, 27 I... give or take a few independents.
I see some polls like the force independents into D or R... So then you can go back to 4 more Ds than Rs as you return closer to 51 vs 47.
===
I note Hillary and Trump both have high similarly high unfavorables.
and if there is an x factor its that trump turned out a lot of primary votes and he leads with independents right now. Therefore crooked polls will have a very small amount of Independents.
Last edited: