The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

jem · Jul 27, 2016

jem · Jul 27, 2016

4 things to remember -

- Polls this time of year in the past frequently underweighted independents and overweighted Democrats. As we got closer to election day they poll started using more independents and switched to those likely to vote. Which mean a richer republican and independent sample. So far Trump is winning with independents.

- I heard a pollster say that Trump does better in online polls because people are less likely to admit they are going to vote for him to a person.

- at the moment in these polls fewer people think Trump will win then state they will vote for him. When these polls become known and people see him leading they may jump on the Trump bandwagon.

- Its still just convention time and things can change.

Ricter · Jul 27, 2016

Hello Russia, are you listening? We need your help getting Drumpf elected. Do you have the emails?

No, not the 22 million from Bush II, the other ones, thanks.

ETcallhome · Jul 27, 2016

a little early, wait for the post convention bump. Hillary now has the full support of the media. They don't even know they are biased. They just assume EVERYBODY wants the government to do more good things. Their only knowledge of the economy is that is where money comes from and republicans are always complaining about it. Today Hillary is being celebrated for her historical acheivment of being nominated while being a woman. Trumps historical day is he is the first nominee to encourage another country to engage in espionage. Brought to you by the same CNBC character who asked Trump if he was a cartoon character. Once again they are driving us all underground to the Right Wing hypocrisy experts. You can kiss anything even remotely honest goodbye until after the election.

Covertibility · Jul 27, 2016

Trump calling Russia for help?!?!!

jem · Jul 27, 2016

Whether the media admits it or not... Trump is in a commanding lead at the moment because Hillary just alienated a large portion of the active base. Just think of how many Nitro's there out there... educated but willing to turn off their logic to vote democrat for some reason. Now they are too jaded to enjoy turning off their brains. Some of them will still vote democrat... but some. maybe millions, will not forget how they screwed Bernie. they will stay home or vote for someone else. There will be even more independents going forward.

any convention bump she gets will be manufactured with skewed polls.

ETcallhome said:
a little early, wait for the post convention bump. Hillary now has the full support of the media. They don't even know they are biased. They just assume EVERYBODY wants the government to do more good things. Their only knowledge of the economy is that is where money comes from and republicans are always complaining about it. Today Hillary is being celebrated for her historical acheivment of being nominated while being a woman. Trumps historical day is he is the first nominee to encourage another country to engage in espionage. Brought to you by the same CNBC character who asked Trump if he was a cartoon character. Once again they are driving us all underground to the Right Wing hypocrisy experts. You can kiss anything even remotely honest goodbye until after the election.

Ricter · Jul 27, 2016

jem said:
any convention bump she gets will be manufactured with skewed polls.

So you've got your bases covered now, whichever way it goes. Drumpf stays ahead, it's because... Sanders. Drumpf falls behind, it's because... skewing.

jem · Jul 27, 2016

according to 538 the USC poll that has Trump up by 7 does not need to change. Nate Silver and his analysis tends to be pro democrat. So the likely situation is that Trump is up by 7 or more.

We will have to see the polls after the convention. If the polls show their sample of dems vs reps vs independents... we can just translate it to a previous election template. Then we will know what is happening now. and we can then argue about which election template is most useful for 2016.

Arnie · Jul 27, 2016

Ricter said:
Hello Russia, are you listening? We need your help getting Drumpf elected. Do you have the emails?

No, not the 22 million from Bush II, the other ones, thanks.

Well now. At least Trump got the Hillary campaign to admit that HER email scandal is a national security issue.

Next few months are going to be really hard on you Ricter. It's already starting to show.
Take a break, go outside and shovel some snow.

Ricter · Jul 27, 2016

Arnie said:
At least Trump got the Hillary campaign to admit that HER email scandal is a national security issue.

By asking for Russian help to win the election, a Pyrrhic victory.