The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

[Tony Stark]

According to Gallops most recent party affiliation poll, 27% of voters are republicans, 40% are independents and 32% are democrats. http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Now...according to this Reuters poll(and you'll find most of the polls on real clear politics are the same) it has Clinton up 6 points. But look at how many democrats were sampled to get there. 52.3% of that sample was democrats. They basically nearly doubled the amount of democrats that actually vote to get that 6 point lead while at the same time they only sampled 15.3% independents despite them being 40% of the population. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_9.27_.16__.pdf

This is just one poll, but you'll find pretty similar instances where Clinton is leading(although many polls won't disclose party affiliation methodology even if you email them and ask them for it)

This is absolute 100% proof that the polls are trying to rig it in favor of Clinton.

Gallup was the 2nd worst rcp pollster in 2012 behind Rasmuessen.

 

[Tony Stark]

Latimes/USC daybreak poll--the chart is a couple of days behind. Currently it has Trump up a little less than four points.

Here's how the same poll did in 2012

This pollster was more accurate than the RCP avg in the 2012 election.
Forget what some website says about who was most accurate. Just look at this chart of the 2012 election, go and look at the rcp avg chart of the 2012 election, and see for yourself that this one was more accurate than the RCP avg.

And now it has Trump ahead.

Seems they were accurate in 2012,but so we're many others.If 5 accurate pollsters from 2008 and 2012 have Hillary ahead and 1 accurate pollster from 2012 has Trump ahead I side with the majority.

 

[Tony Stark]

The whole skewed polls theory let republicans down in 2012 and will do so again in 2016.Hopefully you guys stop believing in that nonsense in 2020.

Something good did come from the skewed polled nonsense in 2012,it got that jackass Dick Morris fired from Fox

 

[fhl]

Seems they were accurate in 2012,but so we're many others.If 5 accurate pollsters from 2008 and 2012 have Hillary ahead and 1 accurate pollster from 2012 has Trump ahead I side with the majority.

Every time till now someone has brought up an individual polster in this thread, you've claimed that the rcp avg is the be all and end all of polling. That it's all that really counts.

Now you say you're going to go with individual pollsters who agree with you on Hillary.
Which is it, Tony?

Global warming crusher crew playbook was to rebut every single post made by the opposition and drown out any other viewpoints. And to always get the last word. Clinton campaign paid trolls use the same playbook.

Do you know how obvious it has become that you're a paid troll for Clinton?

"The Daily Beast reports that Clinton SuperPac “Correct the Record” is openly admitting to spending $1 million to hire fake online Hillary supporters to swarm social media sites like Reddit..."

 

[jem]

the skewed polls theory was prefect in 2014. even after the herding many of the the polls were skewed in favor of the democrats by a lot.

next... since the polls have been off by about the margin for error in the recent presidential races. And the races themselves have been typically pretty close. You might say any correct results were coincidence.

Gallup was the 2nd worst rcp pollster in 2012 behind Rasmuessen.

 

[Tony Stark]

Every time till now someone has brought up an individual polster in this thread, you've claimed that the rcp avg is the be all and end all of polling. That it's all that really counts.

Now you say you're going to go with individual pollsters who agree with you on Hillary.
Which is it, Tony?

Global warming crusher crew playbook was to rebut every single post made by the opposition and drown out any other viewpoints. And to always get the last word. Clinton campaign paid trolls use the same playbook.

Do you know how obvious it has become that you're a paid troll for Clinton?

"The Daily Beast reports that Clinton SuperPac “Correct the Record” is openly admitting to spending $1 million to hire fake online Hillary supporters to swarm social media sites like Reddit..."

Every time till now someone has brought up an individual polster in this thread, you've claimed that the rcp avg is the be all and end all of polling. That it's all that really counts.

Now you say you're going to go with individual pollsters who agree with you on Hillary.
Which is it, Tony?

Global warming crusher crew playbook was to rebut every single post made by the opposition and drown out any other viewpoints. And to always get the last word. Clinton campaign paid trolls use the same playbook.

Do you know how obvious it has become that you're a paid troll for Clinton?

"The Daily Beast reports that Clinton SuperPac “Correct the Record” is openly admitting to spending $1 million to hire fake online Hillary supporters to swarm social media sites like Reddit..."

I never said the rcp avg was the be all and end of polling fhl ,I said who was ahead in the majority of the rcp polls was the the best method.at the end of many of my posts I say hillary is ahead in 8 of the last 10 polls and Trump is ahead in 1 of the last 10 (or whatever the current numbers are).I rarely if ever site the rcp avg winning margin.

 

[peilthetraveler]

Ok...lets ignore logic for a second and just say you are right. Lets say Gallop completely missed the ball and 53.2% of Americans really are democrats. Then why hasn't Clinton broke 50% in polling? The poll from Reuters even says that only 76% of Republicans are going to vote for Trump. I mean if they are polling 53.2% democrats and 24% of all republicans are going to vote for her, she should be up way more than she is. The math does not add up.

To quote her...why isn't she up 50 points?

 

[Tony Stark]

the skewed polls theory was prefect in 2014. even after the herding many of the the polls were skewed in favor of the democrats by a lot.

next... since the polls have been off by about the margin for error in the recent presidential races. And the races themselves have been typically pretty close. You might say any correct results were coincidence.

6- 8 out of 10 polls having the winning candidate ahead most times isn't a coincidence imo.

 

[Tony Stark]

To quote her...why isn't she up 50 points?

There are around 40 % of Americans who are going to vote for the republican or against the democrat no matter who the nominee is.

 

[Tony Stark]

New poll.Madam Hillary + 6

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/da...holds-national-lead-over-donald-trump-n658721

Poll: Hillary Clinton Holds National Lead Over Donald Trump
by Hannah Hartig, John Lapinski and Stephanie Psyllos

Oct 4 2016, 6:01 am ET

Put-Downs and Comebacks: The Best Zingers From Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton


As the campaign heads into the final stretch, Hillary Clinton holds a 46 percent to 40 percent lead over Donald Trump, according to latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll. Libertarian Gary Johnson is down slightly from last week with 9 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein holds steady with 3 percent.