the politically incorrect truth why TA can't work (for you)

[R. Raskolnikov]

I thought you were a writer who is also a hobby trader?

Quote from marketsurfer:

I'm far from bitter. I make my living finding edge that works in the current market.

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Low standards I presume?

Quote from marketsurfer:



That said, for my personal account, I am quite pleased with price drivers so far.

surf

 

[TheBlackHand]

Quote from logic_man:

It is ironic the number of holes in these people's arguments. It's almost as if they've never learned how to do "A", much less "TA".

I don't even use TA (or, I use a subset that is algorithmic, so no charts or indicators for me), but I don't go around spouting that it's impossible on the basis that I can't make it work.

Its not that one cant make TA work. Any fool can make TA work - in hindsight of course.

The fact is TA people live in the past. They believe the past has some bearing on the future.

The truth of course is that the pasts bearing on the future isnt as great as TA folk would like to believe.

Im looking at the 'now' with 80% focus, and past with 20% focus. Not visa versa.

I dont study or use TA as I look at the concept behind it and can instantly dismiss it as nonsense.

You see, I'm not a follower. I'm not a member of the herd. We all know where the herd ends up in the markets.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from TheBlackHand:

Its not that one cant make TA work. Any fool can make TA work - in hindsight of course.

The fact is TA people live in the past. They believe the past has some bearing on the future.

The truth of course is that the pasts bearing on the future isnt as great as TA folk would like to believe.

Im looking at the 'now' with 80% focus, and past with 20% focus. Not visa versa.

I dont study or use TA as I look at the concept behind it and can instantly dismiss it as nonsense.

You see, I'm not a follower. I'm not a member of the herd. We all know where the herd ends up in the markets.

Amen, brother.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

I thought you were a writer who is also a hobby trader?

I have been in the hedge fund business since 2004. I don't trade for a living, but I am active in the market daily. Yes, I like writing about my experiences and ideas.

surf

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

You said you "make my living finding edge that work in the current market". But you "don't trade for a living". Is it safe to say that you look for OTHER people's edge's that work?

So you currently work for a hedge fund?

Quote from marketsurfer:

I have been in the hedge fund business since 2004. I don't trade for a living, but I am active in the market daily. Yes, I like writing about my experiences and ideas.

surf

 

[Xspurt]

Quote from marketsurfer:

This is where the "god" complex comes into play with the TA wonks.

I know the secret type claims are classic in the psuedoscience literature.

The premise that any past action, price, volume can increase the odds of a future move is the only premise that needs to be knocked down. Which it has numerous times.

What is being said above is ludicrous-- One knows astrology makes no sense without testing every combination of stars/alignments--- the same can be said for TA. Although, TA has been tested time and time again resulting in no edge or an edge that doesnt' even beat the vig in rare circumstances.

surf

H Surf, I'm glad you enjoy busting market myths because I think that is worthwhile. However you do need to know what you are talking about or you soon get out of your depth, draw ludicrous conclusions and add to the very myths you claim to bust.

For example your premise on astrology which you say applies to TA shows how little you understand TA or astrology. We can't test every combination of everything unless we have eternity to do it. In Astrology all we need to do is take one example and test it to see if it has proven, repeatable results. Here is a scientific study on the effects of the moon on stocks to show it works...

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...&sig=AHIEtbTpO0se5WDys26vMHsiaVLeg7bYqg&pli=1

Likewise in TA, we can take one specific TA application rather that every possible combination and prove that TA works. As CornixForex points asks...

"Dear TA bashers, what do you think of Victor Sperandeo, the man who showed proved average return annual of 70.71% for 10 years in a row without a losing year (compared to 11.5% annual return of S&P 500 during the same period) and clearly stated that he uses TA to enter/exit trades, evaluate risk etc... ?"

Now let's get real. I have shown you a test on astrology that proves it works. CornixForex is citing Trader Vic.

Now show me one test on TA that proves TA fails. And for goodness sake don't show me some prof who thinks an engulfing candle or a 20/80 indicator back test is TA.

A sensible test of the test is if you can learn TA in a day it's about as worthwhile as a chocolate fireguard. Show me your chart failures of TA. You claimed you used to use it. Show me why it failed.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

You said you "make my living finding edge that work in the current market". But you "don't trade for a living". Is it safe to say that you look for OTHER people's edge's that work?

So you currently work for a hedge fund?

We are marketers for several funds. Correct, I look for other people's edges that work.

surf

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Ok, so you have a vested interest in learning someone's system. I see, now this all makes a bit more sense.

Quote from marketsurfer:

We are marketers for several funds. Correct, I look for other people's edges that work.

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Ok, so you have a vested interest in learning someone's system. I see, now this all makes a bit more sense.

Not learning per se', but understanding enough to articulate to my clients.