The Pinch Journal

I was thinking about TBS's questions about quantifying my strategy (pinch).

Just as its prudent to look at past earnings implied vs actual move for the last X amount of events, its also prudent for the pincher to study the past performance of refraction.

We can compute the last X amount of pinch set ups (which have their own criterion for scanning), using bivariate regression for Px, beta coefficient the percentage drop from the climax to the very low of the move, then the percentage of the mark up from low to high, we can do this for however many "set ups" we deem worthy. I've done this only VISUALLY using my technical eye but never crunched the numbers wholly, which I agree with TBS and his approach to the PDE's and modeling.
 
$CRR also looks tempting.. lots of volume being pumped into this thing around .35c, I'll post later if I enter, most likely I'm going to sit this one out.
 
maxinger said:
seems like RMBL is still trying to find the bottom of the bottom and it is approaching zero.
More...

Today RMBL popped a bit, I bought shares avg .86c small position.. spot hit a intraday high of .97, up +9.73% for the day..This could be a potential bottom. we shall see.
 
I don't really like ENBL price action but its setting up a bottom accumulation right now on the daily and the weekly is showing buying pressure candle/volume. Keeping an eye on this, if it breaks the Wyckoff creek at 9.70 I may buy some shares.
 
From my studies on the efficient market hypothesis, and the random walk theory, specifically the latter... I'm not sure if I quite understand the concept.

Is this theory claiming price movement day to day is utterly "random"?

Does this theory claim that price has a log-normal distribution and the rate of return has a normal distribution?

If these are the claims I have a problem with the first one. As far as price moving random.. we need to define random. Because I will completely disagree that price movement is "purely random" obviously we know this isn't true based on order flow and how market makers smash orders in their books. This inherently has a structure, and you see it playing out on charts.

IMO pure randomness would look like $TICK or even the $VIX, if all stocks moved like them I would agree about the random part, but knowing that price fluctuates in a cyclical manner I cant.

EVERY SINGLE underlying moves up and down around a mean, this mean isn't forever, and new means are created all the time, regardless spot will oscillate from extreme to extreme around this "mean".
 
STARTING A PINCH JOURNAL AT ALL TIME HIGHS ISN'T RECOMENDED

REMEMBER TO REMEMBER

I CANT FIND ANY SET UPS IN A BULLISH MARKET, I NEED PRICES TO GO down FOR ME TO FIND CANIDATES, CALAMITY IS MY FRIEND

IMAGINE A SCHISM OCCURS IN NASDAQ FUTURES AND YOURE SHORT 10 ATM STRADDLES. HOW WILL YOU ACT JOHNY? HOW WILL YOU ATONE!
 
The ebb and flow of spot.

Oscillating up and down down and up.

The timing of the ebb is very hard, most fail.

But theres a slight glimmer in the shadow gamma.
 
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