The Perpetuated Fraud of Candle Charting

Xspurt · Dec 10, 2009

Re. Steve Nison

Years ago I got his candle video course and in it he said he didn't trade because he didn't have the make up of a trader. He found it too stressful but was in demand as an analyst because he could read the candle signals.

Also he talked about the benefit of East meets West thinking where we can combine indicators with candles, but his example of that was as basic as a standard 14 period stochastic or something like that.

If he has become a trader with an edge then he has gone through some major changes.

I think candles are a great tool and each to their own.

R. Raskolnikov · Dec 10, 2009

It has NOTHING to do with registration date (obviously, look at yours) and EVERYTHING to do with actual trading experience. I've got over 12 yrs full time in futs day trading, you just started a few years ago. And then you come in here and say this doesn't work, no way no how.

Come on man, you should know better

Quote from Daal:

I'm sorry I'm not a member of the exclusive 'registered in nov 2008' club. You guys rock

Daal · Dec 10, 2009

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

It has NOTHING to do with registration date (obviously, look at yours) and EVERYTHING to do with actual trading experience. I've got over 12 yrs full time in futs day trading, you just started a few years ago. And then you come in here and say this doesn't work, no way no how.

Come on man, you should know better

Not me my friend, more like the guys who tested. Like the New York Fed, Victor Niederhoffer(feel free to take shots at his past failures) and others

JSSPMK · Dec 10, 2009

Experience is not as relevant as knowing how to make more than lose. For instance this Oscar Carboni claims to have had 27 years in the industry, but http://oscarsnakeoil.wordpress.com/

R. Raskolnikov · Dec 10, 2009

Well, the aforementioned don't use the same inputs in determining what works as I do or as others do. My approach is very proprietary in some things but uses many of the "basic" things you can learn in books because....well....the bars DO have meaning.

You have to slice up whatever time frame you trade off of and create a context in which to view price move and THEN you will see why some doji's work and others don't. Same thing goes for all other common formations as well of lesser known ones.

Context is king!

Quote from Daal:

Not me my friend, more like the guys who tested. Like the New York Fed, Victor Niederhoffer(feel free to take shots at his past failures) and others

10019 · Dec 10, 2009

You simply can not argue with the religious. And yes, that is what we are dealing with--- those fervent candle true believers who base everything on I CAN DO IT, I KNOW A GUY WHO CAN DO IT, I SAW IT DONE, ad infiniium. they NEVER show actual proof as that will upset their fanatical world view. They made the decision to hang onto an idea regardless of what empirical testings says.

They can do it, so they must be SPECIAL---- One can not argue with SPECIAL powers these folks must possess.

They do not listen to reason since they have experienced the power of the candlestick and TA. Just like those who have seen GOD.

In fact, I am willing to bet that most TA believers are also have strong religious faith.

10019 · Dec 10, 2009

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

Well, the aforementioned don't use the same inputs in determining what works as I do or as others do. My approach is very proprietary in some things but uses many of the "basic" things you can learn in books because....well....the bars DO have meaning.

You have to slice up whatever time frame you trade off of and create a context in which to view price move and THEN you will see why some doji's work and others don't. Same thing goes for all other common formations as well of lesser known ones.

Context is king!

Actually they use FAR MORE data and inputs than you are capable of utilizing.

Another, its a secret, i'm special rant. It will never ends till the next one bites the dust...

10019 · Dec 10, 2009

For those of you with real interest in the markets and not following the he said, she said paradigm check out:

Niederhoffer: Education of a Speculator, Practical Speculation

Mandelbrot: The Misbehavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence

Gallacher: Winner Take All

the last book is a great one for the non math minded. It lays out simply why TA is BS as well as candlesticks using basic examples and descriptions.

R. Raskolnikov · Dec 10, 2009

You're only bolstering my case further. You say TA is useless because it's been tested but who's to say that the testers covered all their bases? Here's a secret for you....they haven't

No sense in trying to convince those us of who use proprietary TA to make money from the mkts. You're just wasting your breath.

Quote from 10019:

Actually they use FAR MORE data and inputs than you are capable of utilizing.

PS Oh, and Cowardly Lion, you can post under your normal alias. You didn't need to hide behind a new one just for this

10019 · Dec 10, 2009

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

You're only bolstering my case further. You say TA is useless because it's been tested but who's to say that the testers covered all their bases? Here's a secret for you....they haven't

No sense in trying to convince those us of who use proprietary TA to make money from the mkts. You're just wasting your breath.

Well, with secret, proprietary information that all the quants from sloan, wharton, etc must have missed---- you must be a very wealthy man. In fact, with that kind of edge, it's very kind of you to brag about it under an alias and not corner the market.....