Quote from gmst:
Mav,
I have been wanting to ask you a question and maybe this is a good thread to ask that question. You have mentioned elsewhere that a good prop trader at a pure futures firms in Chicago might have upto 50mm intra-day notional exposure limit. Also, you mentioned that most of these futures traders won't get backing if they are trading 'primarily' direction.
Q1. I infer you are saying that such notional limits will be extended to traders who are doing spreads or basis trading, but not punting on direction of Euro for example. Why, especially if trader has a 'method' to punt euro intraday and his performance has been good?
Q2. How much limit can a trader expect to get if he is punting euro intra-day with a method. Intra-day doesn't mean in reference to US hours but opening and closing trades within 24 hrs, as FX trades round the clock.
Q3. What does it take to reach that level when a firm will extend you 50mm notional to trade? What kind of stats a typical Chicago futures firm will be interested before they extend you that kind of money to punt/trade Fx intraday. Also, what kind of profit split is possible, assuming 0 salary, in FX world ?
Thanks v much.
Here is my advice. If you want to be a directional trader, you need to use notional capital, not leverage. This means you need to become a CTA or start a fund or become an RIA. Leverage and direction are like oil and water, they don't mix.
These firms trade give guys 50 million in exposure are trading the basis trade. The basis being the spread between cash and futures in any given market, usually debt. And 50 million is actually on the low side. That's only a 50 lot on the EuroDollar. Most the trades there go off in 1000 lots, not 50's. But I digress.
The bottom line is, if you want to trade a size book in the prop wold, you are going to want to have an absolute return strategy. In other words, market neutral, market making, HFT, stat correlation, arbitrage, dispersion, etc.
Let me ask you this. Say I have a firm, Maverick Capital. And I hire 50 guys to come in and directionally trade futures. Now, they can trade anything for the most part, but usually they are all going to trade what's moving and what's liquid so that really narrows it down. We can basically create a tri-nomial tree right? There are 3 possibly trades they can have on if they are trading direction, let's say the Euro as you mentioned. They could be long, short or flat. Let's say the Euro is really breaking out. And I give each guy a 10 contract limit. Let's say two guys are flat because they want to be short and it's strong now. But the other 8 guys are all long. So 8 guys long 10 Euros each. So as an entire firm, we are basically in one position, we are long 80 lots of the Euro. Why can't I just buy 80 lots of the Euro myself? I'm a good trader. I see it breaking out. Why do I need 8 to 10 guys all doing the exact same thing. And simply using a plain vanilla strategy of punting on the direction of the Euro? And what if the Euro goes down? Say a rumor comes out of the ECB and it suddenly drops 100 pips. I've got the entire firm all loaded up in one direction. That's not going to work and no one is going to pay you to do that. Like I said, I'll just buy some Euro as the partner and not hire these 10 other traders. The math just doesn't work.