The peak is going to be an extended plateau

[Pekelo]

Sunday: 1154
Monday: 1324

But they model 3K per day dead in June if we reopen everything. I think they are wrong because you can social distance with reopening, plus there is already immunity, but who really knows.

 

[neke]

plus there is already immunity, but who really knows

20% immunity in New York and 4% in California. Not much immunity to speak of. I think next fall/winter will still be a concern without vaccine/treatment.

 

[Pekelo]

Not much immunity to speak of. I think next fall/winter will still be a concern without vaccine/treatment.

1. 20% is much bigger than zero. That many people LESS to possibly fall ill.
2. We still have 4 months until fall, plenty of time to double or triple community spread (aka immunity).

 

[noddyboy]

1. 20% is much bigger than zero. That many people LESS to possibly fall ill.
2. We still have 4 months until fall, plenty of time to double or triple community spread (aka immunity).

I was sounding the alarms weeks ago, but for NY, I think they should reopen. 30% antibodies in Brooklyn. Just one doubling to 60% which is herd immunity levels....and you know a doubling will probably happen in weeks anyway.

Almost zero school students dead and far less than children dying of other diseases. Elderly are at risk, accounting for 95% -- so why not solve the problem by targetting segments of the population?

 

[noddyboy]

20% immunity in New York and 4% in California. Not much immunity to speak of. I think next fall/winter will still be a concern without vaccine/treatment.

If logically a vaccine is too far away, the same total number will die eventually. But for those who are worried about lack of hospital beds, the right strategy is still to open now and shut down in Fall/Winter. The bad alternative is to destroy all our food now since no one can harvest and by Winter have no resources to shut down. The total number of deaths might be even greater.

No, I am not one of those "its just the flu".

 

[Pekelo]

The bad alternative is to destroy all our food now since no one can harvest and by Winter have no resources to shut down. The total number of deaths might be even greater.

Yeah, I started to like the Swedish approach more and more. Using common sense and social distancing we should keep the number of sick under the available hospital beds, and that was the point of the lock down.

 

[bone]

1. States with large urban areas are listing elderly deaths without autopsies to COVID on death certificates in order to get more federal funds.

2. Private nursing homes are only listing confirmed by testing COVID deaths - they want to avoid litigation.

3. States with more rural populations are opening NOW. Florida and Texas are opening NOW.

4. Rural areas of Red totalitarian regime States are opening up regardless.

Most people on TV expect this to be a quick peak and death rate dropping down fast after that. It may very well be the case, specially for smaller countries.

But for the US, I expect this "peak" to be at least a 2-3 weeks plateau, where the daily death rate will stay in the 1800-2200 range. Why? Because this is a big country and it didn't lock down all at once. So NY state could be already on the downward slope, but Florida and Georgia numbers are still increasing. In short, consecutive peaks.

Then the question remains, at what daily death rate would the country consider safe to reopen for business? 1000 doesn't sound so bad if the ATH was let's say 2200. Or should we wait until we drop below 500? That might be still another 6 weeks away.

My guess is that it is going to be state by state, just like the lock down was. Some not so badly hit and already peaked states will loosen the rules, others will take 2-3 weeks longer.

And 3 weeks after the reopening, the numbers will go up again, although hopefully much slower...

 

[Pekelo]

Tuesday: 2350 kind of expected after a low count weekend

Bone, although you posted facts, I am unclear about the point you tried to make.

 

[bone]

1. Numbers are being underreported by private hospices for liability reasons and over reported by State governments in order to increase federal aid. If there is no private attending physician and the deceased is elderly - States are calling the death COVID. Point being - I personally don’t place much stock in reported numbers.

2. People are going to start getting on with their lives regardless.

Tuesday: 2350 kind of expected after a low count weekend

Bone, although you posted facts, I am unclear about the point you tried to make.

 

[Pekelo]

1. Numbers are being underreported

2. People are going to start getting on with their lives regardless.

true and true But beside the death numbers the community spread (affected people) is also under reported, so the question is, which number is closer to the truth. The answer makes the virus more or less deadly.

I have another thread where I asked people if we should just take the hit, and the responses were about 50-50%. After 2 months of quarantine the curve was flattened (that was the goal), people are fed up with unemployment and being locked up while the weather is getting better. I don't blame them and I agree that we should start to open up.

What is almost never talked about is, that for the virus, we are NOT EQUAL. There is no equality and fairness. The old the fat, the smoker and the immuno weak are more likely to die than the young and healthy. So our response to the challenge/threat is never going to be the same.