The peak is going to be an extended plateau

[Pekelo]

Most people on TV expect this to be a quick peak and death rate dropping down fast after that. It may very well be the case, specially for smaller countries.

But for the US, I expect this "peak" to be at least a 2-3 weeks plateau, where the daily death rate will stay in the 1800-2200 range. Why? Because this is a big country and it didn't lock down all at once. So NY state could be already on the downward slope, but Florida and Georgia numbers are still increasing. In short, consecutive peaks.

Then the question remains, at what daily death rate would the country consider safe to reopen for business? 1000 doesn't sound so bad if the ATH was let's say 2200. Or should we wait until we drop below 500? That might be still another 6 weeks away.

My guess is that it is going to be state by state, just like the lock down was. Some not so badly hit and already peaked states will loosen the rules, others will take 2-3 weeks longer.

And 3 weeks after the reopening, the numbers will go up again, although hopefully much slower...

 

[Atikon]

The dynamic of the US labour market might prove deadly here, ppl losing their job and moving to another place bringing the disease and thereby extending this peak or reflare it. Same thing goes for countries in Europe where Unemployment has increased significantly because of the Lockdown.

 

[dozu888]

whats the point? italy and spain looks like plateau also.... peak is peak.

 

[Atikon]

whats the point? italy and spain looks like plateau also.... peak is peak.

The point is that the economy might be shut down again/longer than the market has priced in

 

[Turveyd]

Remember 14day lag to hospital and test and 21day lag till death, which makes it tricky.

I'd say NYC you can unlock cause it's either peaked or would of in the next 14days

Rest well some need a Week or 2, others lock down too soon and there going to take months till everyone gets, some haven't reached critical mass, so back to low numbers and straight back up after, why he did a total country lockdown same time, just nuts!!

Dozu

Lockdown, creates a plateau, as it burns through population at a steady rate so takes longer, not by much only a few days, not a huge / worthwhile investment in Trillions and 6.6Mil jobs lost so far.

Spain, plateau'd for 13days before it started running out of people to infect and started heading down.

Expect social distancing, work from home if possible to stay with us for a year, businesses first, until the numbers are really low, to be paranoid if nothing else and wayyy too many people SCARED over this.

 

[Pekelo]

My problem is that I don't see a master plan. An endgame. Somebody from the government would say, if X happens we can do Y. If Z, then we scale back. etc. Just saying another 2 weeks then another is not a solution.

If it was up to me, in a week I would let young healthy people to go back and start businesses. If we can send them to wars, we can send them back to work. It could be a volunteer thing, (nobody is forced) but the economy has to open up. Also if everyone is distancing, nobody is getting immunity, and we need people to get a small load so eventually we will have people with anti-bodies. Sure there will be death, but much less than a sudden opening up the workforce for everybody. Old people and immuno compromised ones stay quarantined longer.

---------------------------

News: DC mayor expects the virus to peak in June. That is almost 2 more MONTHS.

Spain eases lock down.

 

[dozu888]

The point is that the economy might be shut down again/longer than the market has priced in

market can't price in anything, my boyz decide how much is priced in.

GDP drag will be 5% for the year, 10% tops.

injection $6t is already 30% of GDP, plus rate is zero, plus possible phase 4 $2t for infrastructure.

market aint pricing in shit.... it's all my boyz smoke and mirror.

 

[Turveyd]

My problem is that I don't see a master plan. An endgame. Somebody from the government would say, if X happens we can do Y. If Z, then we scale back. etc. Just saying another 2 weeks then another is not a solution.

If it was up to me, in a week I would let young healthy people to go back and start businesses. If we can send them to wars, we can send them back to work. It could be a volunteer thing, (nobody is forced) but the economy has to open up. Also if everyone is distancing, nobody is getting immunity, and we need people to get a small load so eventually we will have people with anti-bodies. Sure there will be death, but much less than a sudden opening up the workforce for everybody. Old people and immuno compromised ones stay quarantined longer.

The age it's effecting aren't working age anyway so limited effect, letting them hide away, if they want to, wouldn't force them to waste what is left of there lives stuck at home bored.

Everyone else back to work, but the issue is about 90% are SCARED of catching it and even when he releases there still not going to want to leave there houses, even if there 25year old none smokers with no health issues.

As long as your allowed in shops, it'll float around and everyone will get, don't worry Not many shops, but there is enough so lockdowns barely slowing.

People die, especially old people, that's life, people need to grow a pair and stop being afraid of long shots.

 

[dozu888]

My problem is that I don't see a master plan. An endgame. Somebody from the government would say, if X happens we can do Y. If Z, then we scale back. etc. Just saying another 2 weeks then another is not a solution.

If it was up to me, in a week I would let young healthy people to go back and start businesses. If we can send them to wars, we can send them back to work. It could be a volunteer thing, (nobody is forced) but the economy has to open up. Also if everyone is distancing, nobody is getting immunity, and we need people to get a small load so eventually we will have people with anti-bodies. Sure there will be death, but much less than a sudden opening up the workforce for everybody. Old people and immuno compromised ones stay quarantined longer.

I am a big Trump supporter but am disappointed at his actions on Corona... how come Fauci is running the show now, just a medicine man, not an elected official... shouldn't be making economic decisions.

 

[Turveyd]

I am a big Trump supporter but am disappointed at his actions on Corona... how come Fauci is running the show now, just a medicine man, not an elected official... shouldn't be making economic decisions.

And scared emotional public also shouldn't be forcing decisions on him.

The same people that are not happy with Sweden for not locking down, when Sweden comes out no worse than anyone else, we don't have to listen to them saying we saved you, no you screwed us, go away!!

Happened in the UK aswell, strong stance, but whiney whiney whiney and he backed down and it's just not bad enough to warrant the damage being done.