The Path to Recovery: How to Re-Open America
- Thread starter gwb-trading
- Start date
First of all R0 (known as Rnaught) is the raw reproduction number with no mitigation. You need to refer to R, the effective reproduction number, with mitigation if you want to discuss the current infectious rates. As noted in my post earlier today on this thread the R effective reproduction number in New York has been drive down to 0.8 due to mitigation measures. If it rises above 1.2 (which means that one person is infecting 1.2 people on average) then New York will need to lockdown again rather than taking measures to open up.
The situation is the same in Germany, which is starting to open up. The drove the R effective reproduction number down to 0.7; if the it rises again to 1.2 then they will need stop opening up and re-institute the lockdown.
A strategy to only lockdown high risk people would cause at least 4 times the deaths than locking down all people according to the U.K. today. Do your really want to throw grandma under a train?
you douche bag... I gave you a link to that information last week.
of course I know that.
I used "effective R0" for those... not familiar with the actual nomenclature and no one is using effective R... in any source I have read.
of course I know that.
I used "effective R0" for those... not familiar with the actual nomenclature and no one is using effective R... in any source I have read.
Is there actaul evidence that the death rate would quadruple if we only lockdown the high risk people, or is that another modeling projection? Right now we need to actually try things rather than wring our hands over what might happen. If grandma and grandpa have to be the lab rats so be it, they/we/I have had their time, ain't liked they're being cheated out of living a full life. Difficult times call for difficult decisions.
Admittedly it is the model that is being used in the U.K. by the government. To be fair, the estimates coming out of the model so far have been fairly accurate.
If you want a see the results in an actual lab -- look at Sweden they have urged the the high-risk to stay at home while others wandered around. Their number of deaths and death rate is much higher than other nearby countries. At the same time they also managed to entirely wreck their economy as outlined by their interior minister in the article I posted on the other thread.
So based on what is seen in Sweden, the U.K. and other countries can do a "two-fer" - both wreck their economies and greatly increase their deaths with a "only lockdown those at risk" strategy.
you present the the most negative view possible... and its probably not even close to what will turn out be reality.
half their deaths have been in locked down old folks homes...
When you take those deaths out...
if it turns out there is herd immunity
They will be way ahead of the game.
If it turns out there is a second wave when the countries in lock down ease restrictions... Sweden will be way ahead of the game.
and their economy, if wrecked as you say, is still going to be miles ahead of fully shutdown economies.
half their deaths have been in locked down old folks homes...
When you take those deaths out...
if it turns out there is herd immunity
They will be way ahead of the game.
If it turns out there is a second wave when the countries in lock down ease restrictions... Sweden will be way ahead of the game.
and their economy, if wrecked as you say, is still going to be miles ahead of fully shutdown economies.
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Basing your nations strategy on "herd immunity" when there is not proof yet that there is immunity is a very poor public health strategy.
The views I present are real -- based on the best advice of public health experts and others who have studied pandemics in depth.
Fortunately it appears that most states in the U.S. are following their advice about using a 60 day lockdown and having a staged re-opening as the best strategy.
1. basing your decision to lock down on bad data from China may be the most destructive decision made by govrenments since the great leap forward.
only this time it was western govt destroying their peoples lives by relying on bad data from China.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/20...s-china-from-official-coronavirus-death-toll/
2. There are many other reasons to stay open besides herd immunity.
If it turns out the "effective R0 or R is less than one for low risks groups than there was no reason to shut down... (which is why Coumo is starting to re open in New York.
You really need to learn how to think in systems...
there are variables to considered besides deaths in the short run.
only this time it was western govt destroying their peoples lives by relying on bad data from China.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/20...s-china-from-official-coronavirus-death-toll/
2. There are many other reasons to stay open besides herd immunity.
If it turns out the "effective R0 or R is less than one for low risks groups than there was no reason to shut down... (which is why Coumo is starting to re open in New York.
You really need to learn how to think in systems...
there are variables to considered besides deaths in the short run.
