First off I take these models with a HUGE grain of salt considering how horribly inaccurate they've been so far. Secondly had we taken an initial hit and just slowly throttled back on the shutdown we would not be in such depersonalization now to reopen. We never tried so we'll never know. Yes the body count would have been considerably higher, but the devastation to come will make that look like a walk in the park. I do agree, we are fucked as now there are no good alternatives to what's in front of us