Quote from toc:
'you would know that the Fed Funds rate is one of the least important factors. That's why it's publicized so much.'
hydro, this is some advanced insight, agree and also disagree..........what in your mind are the real market moving factors.
Think logically, does it look like this market has much follow through? Have any of you guys been trading intraday for the last couple of years?
It is such a tight battle between the permabears & permabulls and the endless amount of daytraders/computers willing to chop stocks & indices for measly pennies.
All that matters is that the money has to go somewhere. Derivatives are still growing but somewhat mature, same for the debt products. Real estate does not have much juice left, but even if it does re-emerge, just how much potential does it have in the current environment? I highly doubt it can suck in the cash from a significant market sell off.
Now if it goes into commodities, particularly food, then we have a big problem. That's a financial crisis situation and political unrest. And smart money is not going to sit in cash for any period longer than a few months. It has to go somewhere.
As for me, not that I'm some kind of richie rich money or even close, but I sold all my long term holdings this week. Partly cause I needed the cash to travel, partly cause I don't have a desire to sit through the summer and partly cause I am so used to lack of followthrough and the stocks were up enough to take the profits. I don't have any financial interest in where the market goes, all I know is that if it dives dramatically, I'm outty 5000.