The Pandemic Could Be ‘Effectively’ Over by April, According to J.P. Morgan

[Overnight]

"Until very recently, Anthony Fauci had been citing August as the month by which the U.S. could vaccinate 70 to 80 percent of the population and reach herd immunity. Last week, he suddenly threw out May or early June as a window for when most Americans could have access to vaccines. Despite some concerns about new coronavirus variants, Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, told me that he doesn’t see viral mutation as a reason to expect that most people couldn’t be well protected within that time frame...."

It doesn't fucking MATTER whether we reach "herd immunity", or whatever they wish to call it. As long as people are afraid, and cannot get back to their jobs, and not have to wear a mask, we will keep dying from boredom and isolation, and the economy will be doomed.

40% of small business that closed during the pandemic will never come back. Ever. And neither will those jobs. I hope all the local baristas who are now permanently unemployed have sharpened up on their solar and win-tech installation skills, because the new green infrastructure will create JOBS JOBS JOBS!

 

[VicBee]

On the basic 11 ( Vaccine Deaths ) are GREATER than 1 Covid death, that's basic logic right ?? I'm going to have to say YES INDEED!!!

Science isn't RELIGION, stop worshiping scientists, they lie, have bills, houses, mortgages like everyone else and they are buyable and make mistakes, Sheldon Cooper is a character played by a actor and nothing like 99% of real scientists, learn this!!!

A lot of Scientists are agreeing with me, the 1's you don't agree with and there trying to shut up, why are they doing that ??

Enjoy your vaccines, especially the Oxford AstroBS 1, scared of covid, role up your sleeve and take your chances, most have bad Flu for 3 days, if your old and weak then it kills you, why a lot of countries tried to not role out to over 65s, but WHO said no it's fine, hateful people.

1 of the care homes had ZERO deaths all year from Covid, then 6 within 4 days of Oxford Vaccine so, all went down as Covid deaths, all tested NEGATIVE for Covid.

Obviously your not hearing this from a Scientist so why listen!

You're a quack; every village has one. But I don't have to read your demented nonsensical crap.

 

[VicBee]

40% of small business that closed during the pandemic will never come back. Ever. And neither will those jobs.

You're on the verge of joining the other lunatic turd in oblivion but I sense that you're an old man unable to cope with change. You may want to switch off that TV and go on a meditation retreat, or whatever.
You're squarely anchored in supply and demand, aren't you? So, small businesses closed because? Yes, lack of demand. Or rather, constrained supply leading to lack of demand. So guess what will happen when the constraints are lifted? That's right, supply will come roaring back. It may not come from the same former supplier, but I can assure you it will be back. That's the magic of free markets.

 

[Pekelo]

The good old doctor agrees with me...History, basic math, etc.

https://www.newsweek.com/john-hopki...-gone-april-half-us-has-herd-immunity-1570615

"Dr. Marty Makary, a surgeon and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, believes that the coronavirus will be "mostly gone" by April.

Makary argued that half of the U.S. has already reached herd immunity because there are more coronavirus cases in the country, possibly 6.5 times as many, than the 28 million that have been reported.

Combined with the 15 percent of Americans who have already begun receiving the vaccine, the doctor argued that normal life will return by the spring."

 

[wrbtrader]

...40% of small business that closed during the pandemic will never come back. Ever. And neither will those jobs. I hope all the local baristas who are now permanently unemployed have sharpened up on their solar and win-tech installation skills, because the new green infrastructure will create JOBS JOBS JOBS!

There will be new business opportunities for you if 40% of small business never come back.

Simply, think like shark tank show and have more faith in Americans that they will get back to making money after they've been vaccinated.

I myself will be looking at situations in Illinois and South Dakota where particular businesses have closed shop.

wrbtrader

 

[Turveyd]

You're a quack; every village has one. But I don't have to read your demented nonsensical crap.

Your a brainless leftie sheep that how no idea whats going on around him and won't like 95% till it's to !ate.

 

[Turveyd]

The good old doctor agrees with me...History, basic math, etc.

https://www.newsweek.com/john-hopki...-gone-april-half-us-has-herd-immunity-1570615

"Dr. Marty Makary, a surgeon and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, believes that the coronavirus will be "mostly gone" by April.

Makary argued that half of the U.S. has already reached herd immunity because there are more coronavirus cases in the country, possibly 6.5 times as many, than the 28 million that have been reported.

Combined with the 15 percent of Americans who have already begun receiving the vaccine, the doctor argued that normal life will return by the spring."

We'll see if normality returns or they keep spinning the fear machine, there calling vaccine deaths in the uk covid deaths, desperate to keep lockdowns as long as possible for max damage.

Client yesterday office normally 25 people in, me and 1 other remains unused, when / if all over most will continue to work from home, normality of last year never returning.

 

[misterkel]

I just looked at the data for CA, one of the most locked down states and FL, one of the least locked down states. These figures are from NYT updated at this site

COVID Statistics

The 7 day average of new cases (per million) is 215 for CA and 314 for FL
The 7 day average of deaths (per million) is 9.67 for CA and 7.45 for FL.

Considering how different their approach to lock downs were, I think the data shows not much benefit in hard vs soft lockdown, especially considering the collateral damage to the economy and peoples lives. Both have obesity rates of 25-30% (CDC). FL has slightly more over 65 years of age at 20.5% vs CA at 14.8%
And for the record I wear a mask EVERYWHERE I go. I don't go to bars/restaurants.
My bet is this pretty much over by Labor Day 2021.

What?!? Lockdowns have no benefits? Of course they have benefits. Look at AMZN stock price.

 

[misterkel]

Sorry, Arnie, but this insufficient fearmongering, therefore scientists say I shouldn't believe it.

We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April


Feb. 18, 2021 12:35 pm ET

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Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

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Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.

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Antibody studies almost certainly underestimate natural immunity. Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop “memory” once they are activated by the virus. Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008—90 years later—to have memory cells still able to produce neutralizing antibodies.

Researchers at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute found that the percentage of people mounting a T-cell response after mild or asymptomatic Covid-19 infection consistently exceeded the percentage with detectable antibodies. T-cell immunity was even present in people who were exposed to infected family members but never developed symptoms. A group of U.K. scientists in September pointed out that the medical community may be under-appreciating the prevalence of immunity from activated T-cells.

Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.


In my own conversations with medical experts, I have noticed that they too often dismiss natural immunity, arguing that we don’t have data. The data certainly doesn’t fit the classic randomized-controlled-trial model of the old-guard medical establishment. There’s no control group. But the observational data is compelling.

I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1% of people—and when they do occur, the cases are mild.

But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.

My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. But it’s also based on direct observation of how hard testing has been to get, especially for the poor. If you live in a wealthy community where worried people are vigilant about getting tested, you might think that most infections are captured by testing. But if you have seen the many barriers to testing for low-income Americans, you might think that very few infections have been captured at testing centers. Keep in mind that most infections are asymptomatic, which still triggers natural immunity.

Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones because some suggested the U.S. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity. That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission has been broken in multiple places, it’s harder for it to spread—and that includes the new strains.

Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity. But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases. The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and administer a vaccine targeted to new variants.


Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation. Contingency planning for an open economy by April can deliver hope to those in despair and to those who have made large personal sacrifices.

Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”

 

[Turveyd]

Sorry, Arnie, but this insufficient fearmongering, therefore scientists say I shouldn't believe it.

Like how you snuck 'scientists say' into that, it's the trigger words that the brainwashed PCs respond to,must be true is 'scientists say'.

While actual scientists are labelled conspiracy nuts and ignored.


2020 the year free thought was banned, humour was abolished in 2018.