The Pain of History

From R. Shiller website:

June 1901
real S&P price (CPI adj.) 190.88

July 1982
real S&P price (CPI adj.) 189.4

great stuff for mutual funds promotion :D
 
Flat from 1910 to 1950 ? there is just the 1929 pic :D

Quote from ShoeshineBoy:

Just out of curiosity, anybody read enough or been around long enough to answer this question: how did anyone make $ from 1910 to 1950 or from 1970-1979?!? Those graphs gave me chills. Those were ugly years! For example, pre-Eisenhower the mkt was essentially flat for 40 years! I guess the past doesn't matter in some ways, but it was sobering.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.htm

And, for the record, I believe there's always a way to beat the mkt, but I think these graphs show that you have to nimble and not assume the past will define the future!
More...
 
Quote from harrytrader:

Flat from 1910 to 1950 ? there is just the 1929 pic :D
More...

Okay, that word "flat" seemed to provoke some controversy here. What I'm getting at is from about 30 to 50 the market was in a 1X band sideways band for the most part. Yes, you could make money on that of course. But let's face it: probably any strategy you came up with post 82 would be questionable. That's all I was getting at...
 
You know, a respectable profession like lawyerin', politickin'....

Should be into Books-A-Million next Saturday, so am gettin' things lined out here.
 
Quote from ShoeshineBoy:

Just out of curiosity, anybody read enough or been around long enough to answer this question: how did anyone make $ from 1910 to 1950 or from 1970-1979?!? Those graphs gave me chills. Those were ugly years! For example, pre-Eisenhower the mkt was essentially flat for 40 years! I guess the past doesn't matter in some ways, but it was sobering.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.htm

And, for the record, I believe there's always a way to beat the mkt, but I think these graphs show that you have to nimble and not assume the past will define the future!
More...

Nothing worse than a NON-Logarithmic chart for that data set....Yale should know better. Talk about data manipulation.
 
Quote from ShoeshineBoy:

Okay, that word "flat" seemed to provoke some controversy here. What I'm getting at is from about 30 to 50 the market was in a 1X band sideways band for the most part. Yes, you could make money on that of course. But let's face it: probably any strategy you came up with post 82 would be questionable. That's all I was getting at...
More...

"Flat" , trendy, etc. are only OBVIOUS with HINDSIGHT!!! Remember that. I'm sure the millions of investors during the 1910-1950 didn't feel it was "flat". It was quite a roller coaster ride for them to been through the biggest boomtime ever then have NATIONWIDE DEPRESSION that last almost a decade. Not only that, the world had two world wars. Hitler. Atomic bomb. TV. Radio. Lots of changes. The last thing on their mind was flat and boring. They felt it bounced up and down a lot. And still have painful memories of the 20-30s.

Nothing is what it seems until AFTER the fact is obvious on the chart...
 
Quote from DT-waw:

From R. Shiller website:

June 1901
real S&P price (CPI adj.) 190.88

July 1982
real S&P price (CPI adj.) 189.4

great stuff for mutual funds promotion :D
More...

Taking DT's thought another step ...

From 1871 to present, the real price of the S&P has a compound annual growth rate of 2%. If we also include dividends, the CAGR is still shy of 3%.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top