The Opening Orders Thread
- Thread starter Don Bright
- Start date
I mean this:
24-May-07 09:00 Boeing: Cowen believes investor day selloff an entry opportunity (95.57 ) : Cowen notes that BA didn't raise EPS guidance but admitted 'an upward bias.' Combined with on-track 787 execution and potential legacy carrier orders, firm believes this suggests their above consensus 2007-08 ests are realistic, with strong gains likely in 2009-10. At a 2008 P/E of 14x, firm believes BA has the potential to outperform the market by 20%+ by yearend. Upcoming Paris Air Show (starts 6/18) is a potential trigger (orders likely; stock tends to trade up in month before). Thus, firm says to buy BA.
3,000 buy orders, 3,000 in sell short orders = 6,000
Don
Jeez,
OK. Lets start keeping track how many of these stocks have this sort of news each day. I would guess 50% of the stocks on the OO posters in this thread do.
If you filtered on this sort of news, you would come down to 5 stocks per day that you could potentially fill (from the already filtered set). If I had the time, I would write a scanner that flagged how many stocks in the SP500 had "news". I bet you it is 30% of them, and on the ones on peoples OO list, it is probably 50% of them if not more.
Further, if this news is so bad for fading using an OO strategy, then why not go with the trend on open if it trades above where you would have faded it? It makes no sense.
For example, in chiguys case, you would have bought from him on his OO fade, and sold to him on his exit. Simple system.
nitro
No need to over-complicate the whole thing. As you know, Nitro, we are simply betting that, with the proper gap, the Specialist is going to make money most of the time for himself/firm. And we just want some of that action by being on the same side of the trade.
I take out for earnings (who knows what is "good" or "bad" these days, Co's will "beat the stree" and still go down and vice-versa), but not all the news items. My program searches for news on each stock in my list, I read the headlines, and, as you said, there is a lot of "news" - but not that much news that makes me take stocks out of my list.
Sometimes the news is a "buy on rumor, sell on news" type of thing and works in our favor.
FWIW,
Don
I take out for earnings (who knows what is "good" or "bad" these days, Co's will "beat the stree" and still go down and vice-versa), but not all the news items. My program searches for news on each stock in my list, I read the headlines, and, as you said, there is a lot of "news" - but not that much news that makes me take stocks out of my list.
Sometimes the news is a "buy on rumor, sell on news" type of thing and works in our favor.
FWIW,
Don
Don,
I realize that this is very difficult for you because it creates a conflict of interest. But of all the OO posters, you are probably the most likely to open up your list of filters for say one week.
Is there a chance that you can post your list of stocks that you are filtering for that day, before 8:30 AM CST? In theory, if you have say fifty stocks of potential plays each day, I would gather that no more than five to ten of those are being filtered, because of news or otherwise. This would take you all of 30 seconds to post at say 8:25 AM CST .
The post would, e.g., look like this:
=====
Filtering:
WMT
BA
IBM
XOM
CAT
====
I would suggest that to everyone. Otherwise, imo, it is all smoke and mirrors.
nitro
I realize that this is very difficult for you because it creates a conflict of interest. But of all the OO posters, you are probably the most likely to open up your list of filters for say one week.
Is there a chance that you can post your list of stocks that you are filtering for that day, before 8:30 AM CST? In theory, if you have say fifty stocks of potential plays each day, I would gather that no more than five to ten of those are being filtered, because of news or otherwise. This would take you all of 30 seconds to post at say 8:25 AM CST .
The post would, e.g., look like this:
=====
Filtering:
WMT
BA
IBM
XOM
CAT
====
I would suggest that to everyone. Otherwise, imo, it is all smoke and mirrors.
nitro
I don't see what's so mysterious about this. If a stock has news I pull it from my list. Some days I lose 50% of my stocks, some days I lose none. I lose a lot of candidates during earnings season, part of the game. Today I pulled 28% of my list, which is very high for non-earnings season.
As far as going the other way, I've looked into it and didn't come up with a rule that gave me consistent results. News stocks basically were chop with big winners and big losers. I like a smoother equity curve so i pull them.
It didn't take me long to compile enough stats to show that news stocks were best avoided completely.
So much of this is personal preference and is what differentiates us from Don's basic strategy.
I agree there is no mystery. Can you post your filter smbol list for the day at 8:25 AM CST. Also as I presume you already do, can you post the symbols fill list that you got for the day? Any time after you are out of positions is fine on that one.
If all people see are 5 fills, +240, BA got me, it seems like a complete waste of time to me.
nitro