The only WAR that does any good to the stock market

[Hunter2020]

Anyone who has ever read Jesse Livermore's Reminisciences of a Stock Operator knows WAR makes the stocks go UP.

BUT, the only kind of WAR which has this effect of uplifting the stock market for a multi-YEAR bull run is the kind where the USA puts American soldier's lives at risk on the battlefield. Anything else NOT involving American army (cough Russian Ukraine war cough) is just meaningless drivel to Mr. Market!

 

[maxinger]

Stop reading that nonsense.
Just focus on the charts and trade accordingly.

War, major news, very good news, very bad news, very sweet news, very painful news .... create trading opportunities.
So go and seize it!

only members from eliteinvestor.com want the stock price to go up and up and up and up and up!

 

[Millionaire]

Anyone who has ever read Jesse Livermore's Reminisciences of a Stock Operator knows WAR makes the stocks go UP.

I dont think the book said wars make the stock market go up.

If i remember correctly the book said even a World War cant stop a Bull market from being a Bull market.

Thats not the same thing.

 

[themickey]

"I should say that a chart helps those who can read it or rather who can assimilate what
they read. The average chart reader, however, is apt to become obsessed with the notion
that the dips and peaks and primary and secondary movements are all there is to stock
speculation. If he pushes his confidence to its logical limit he is bound to go broke.
There is an extremely able man, a former partner of a well-known Stock Exchange
house, who is really a trained mathematician. He is a graduate of a famous technical
school. He devised charts based upon a very careful and minute study of the behaviour
of prices in many markets stocks, bonds, grain, cotton, money, and so on. He went back
years and years and traced the correlations and seasonal movements oh, everything. He
used his charts in his stock trading for years. What he really did was to take advantage of
some highly intelligent averaging. They tell me he won regularly until the World War
knocked all precedents into a cocked hat. I heard that he and his large following lost
millions before they desisted. But not even a world war can keep the stock market from
being a bull market when conditions are bullish, or a bear market when conditions are
bearish. And all a man needs to know to make money is to appraise conditions

 

[Hunter2020]

I dont think the book said wars make the stock market go up.

If i remember correctly the book said even a World War cant stop a Bull market from being a Bull market.

Thats not the same thing.

I guess you didn't read the book properly. The book talked about a chap who wondered if he should go bullish on the markets. He looked at his upturned hat, saw that the hat maker had the initials WAR (or something like that) and thought that was a sign by providence...

 

[cesfx]

How about central banks easing like it's 2020 again, to pay for the war?

 

[Hunter2020]

Market can't fool nobody. Difference between 2008 and 2022 was Beijing held the Olympics right next to depression (aka SAD syndrome) season. Took Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Mar (6 months) for the hard crash and market bottom.

Now in 2022, just apply the same logic. Beijing held the Olympics in Feb. Will Take Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar for the market to tank and achieve ultimate capitulation. The reason the market cannot crash anytime in Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov because it's sunny outside. Nobody gets depressed during this time period because the whole point of crashing the market is to get people to sell the bottom (especially when they're affect by SAD syndrome)!

 

[Hunter2020]

How about central banks easing like it's 2020 again, to pay for the war?

Nope. To gain something like a multi-year bull market a price must be paid. Nothing comes for free in this world. The price that must be paid is a few US soldier's casualties on the battlefield. Nothing drives the stock market up like mad when US soldier's lives are at risk because Mr. Market knows the whole (US) industrial-miltary complex will do everything possible to minimize the casualty count of the USA. In other words, Mr. Market doesn't give a rat's arse if a few Ukrainian / Russian militants lose their lives!

 

[cesfx]

Ok... I thought it was a serious discussion.

 

[Hunter2020]

If anyone never read Jesse Livermore's Reminisciences of a Stock Operator, or didn't read it properly the first time, I will post it again here:

There's a short paragraph in that work (more like a side story) talking about some indicisive investor at a crucial crossroad in world affairs. He decided that if they went to WAR, he would bet bullish. And if they did NOT go to WAR, then he would bet bearish. Being indicisive, he took off his hat (they all wore funny hats back then in the 20's 30's 40's) and saw that the maker of his hat had the initials W.A.R. He decided that was a sign from providence and immediately bet big on the bull side of the market.

The book doesn't not explicit state that WAR makes stocks go up. But if you read between the lines there, you know this is the case! WAR the only reason to drive stocks up in that chapter/side story from Livermore's memoire.