Small world. I just sold my Jan contracts at 62.3 without any idea that you had the same level. Why did you pick that number (just curious)?
My reasoning? Low of contract plus 3 atrs (twenty-day atrs)= 62.3.
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The Oil Bottom Trade
- Thread starter apex82
- Start date
Small world. I just sold my Jan contracts at 62.3 without any idea that you had the same level. Why did you pick that number (just curious)?
My reasoning? Low of contract plus 3 atrs (twenty-day atrs)= 62.3.
Quote from kinggyppo:
Nice call here, this would have caught about a four point move on the futures so far. It will be interesting to see what's next.
Thanks, it is looking better and better everyday. I could have got the oil bottom by 3 ticks... It has now hit first resistance here at 62.30. I expect a pullback here or a 1.50 or more higher at 64. Once again, this thing could easily blow even higher to the upside without respecting any resistance levels. 61.00 pivot will now serve as support as well. My R at 62.30 had to due with fib clusters, but if it overlapped your exit due to other CF's thats great.
Here is the updated chart, nothing has been modified since it was posted on the 19th.
Attachments
Quote from apex82:
Thanks, it is looking better and better everyday. I could have got the oil bottom by 3 ticks... It has now hit first resistance here at 62.30. I expect a pullback here or a 1.50 or more higher at 64. Once again, this thing could easily blow even higher to the upside without respecting any resistance levels. 61.00 pivot will now serve as support as well. My R at 62.30 had to due with fib clusters, but if it overlapped your exit due to other CF's thats great.
Here is the updated chart, nothing has been modified since it was posted on the 19th.
Nice trade! I wanted to ask you your thoughts on a couple of things, and tell me if you see them as well. I assume you look at daily charts considering you started this trade on the 19th. From what I can see, the momentum indicators point to a hold of the 63.50 resistance area. The daily chart is overbought with a positive oscillator that can't break the resistance level. If that oscillator rounds down, I think that indicates that we will see another move down to the bottom of what looks like either a) a range of $58.00 to 63.00, or b) a break of the support level. It seems to early to tell.
The weekly chart looks very bearish at this point. We have the oscillator pulling back to the zero line from the negative side with little price action to the upside. The stochastics indicate oversold conditions, but when an oscillator pulls back to zero with oversold conditions holding on the stochastics and minimal price action, it has been my experience that the downward trend continues.
One thing I am wondering about, and maybe I should address this in the TA forum, is that the daily chart looks like it is forming a sort of reverse penant formation. I don't know if that is the right term for it because I do not know a lot about chart patterns (and don't really believe in them), but I thought it was interesting to take note of. If anyone knows anything about the type of pattern that is when you have resistance like this off of a down trend, and you keep making lower lows, I would enjoy the input.
Quote from drmarkan:
Nice trade! I wanted to ask you your thoughts on a couple of things, and tell me if you see them as well. I assume you look at daily charts considering you started this trade on the 19th. From what I can see, the momentum indicators point to a hold of the 63.50 resistance area. The daily chart is overbought with a positive oscillator that can't break the resistance level. If that oscillator rounds down, I think that indicates that we will see another move down to the bottom of what looks like either a) a range of $58.00 to 63.00, or b) a break of the support level. It seems to early to tell.
The weekly chart looks very bearish at this point. We have the oscillator pulling back to the zero line from the negative side with little price action to the upside. The stochastics indicate oversold conditions, but when an oscillator pulls back to zero with oversold conditions holding on the stochastics and minimal price action, it has been my experience that the downward trend continues.
One thing I am wondering about, and maybe I should address this in the TA forum, is that the daily chart looks like it is forming a sort of reverse penant formation. I don't know if that is the right term for it because I do not know a lot about chart patterns (and don't really believe in them), but I thought it was interesting to take note of. If anyone knows anything about the type of pattern that is when you have resistance like this off of a down trend, and you keep making lower lows, I would enjoy the input.
DrMarkan,
Thanks for the input. I hear where you are coming from with a lot of what you said about indicators etc.. I have traded for awhile with every kind of indicator etc and learned every pattern in the book and was not able to get a statistical edge using those methods. It wasnt until I changed my methodology was I able to get an edge and produce consistent results. Now, the way stochastics are lining up this time could produce good insight, but I will not let that affect my plan. If they work for you, thats great and continue to use them. As far as the weekly chart being bearish, I dont see it, not until my zone is violated. However, I do agree that another range could be shaping up. You can see that today it was a few ticks away from my 64 level, which was R2. It will most likely have to take a breather to get through that.
Profit Target 1 is 63.85 High Of Day =63.75... So close...
Here is the updated chart...
Attachments
Quote from apex82:
DrMarkan,
Thanks for the input. I hear where you are coming from with a lot of what you said about indicators etc.. I have traded for awhile with every kind of indicator etc and learned every pattern in the book and was not able to get a statistical edge using those methods. It wasnt until I changed my methodology was I able to get an edge and produce consistent results. Now, the way stochastics are lining up this time could produce good insight, but I will not let that affect my plan. If they work for you, thats great and continue to use them. As far as the weekly chart being bearish, I dont see it, not until my zone is violated. However, I do agree that another range could be shaping up. You can see that today it was a few ticks away from my 64 level, which was R2. It will most likely have to take a breather to get through that.
Profit Target 1 is 63.85 High Of Day =63.75... So close...
Here is the updated chart...
By all means, do not let what I say affect your plan. I know most people are paranoid about explaining their techique, so I won't ask you about that either. We are so close to your target, that it really doesn't matter anyway. I think you get filled tomorrow, but the thing we have to look at is the close for the end of the week. Under 63.50 is suspect. The one thing I will say, is that I don't like playing break outs. Risky business in my eyes. I would prefer taking profits and if it breaks out, I wait for the pull back to the new support and position again.
XLE vs OIH
my charts seem to show that the energy ETF is topping out while the oil services ETF has a lot more head room? Shouldn't these two trend alike?
my charts seem to show that the energy ETF is topping out while the oil services ETF has a lot more head room? Shouldn't these two trend alike?