The odds of day trading yourself to a profit are lower than you expect"

lovethetrade said:
To cut to the chase, I reckon this trader can

1. trade up to 5 contracts
2. achieve a net profit of 24 ticks per day.

5 x 24 x 12.5 = $1500

Maybe i'm being a touch unrealistic but I dont think im too far away.
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You make it sound almost realistic, but I think you may be a little further away, to be honest.

I don't believe that a "top 10% retail trader" is really going to trade 5 contracts of ES regularly with $50k capital - much more like 2-3, perhaps.

And I don't think he's going to take 6 points per day off ES, averaged out over the month, either. Less than that, on average, allowing for the reality that he's going to have some losing days, too.

These two factors, compounded together, actually make your estimate a significant exaggeration. In my opinion.

I honestly think about a quarter of your figure is much nearer the mark.
 
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Xela said:
You make it sound almost realistic, but I think you may be a little further away, to be honest.

I don't believe that a "top 10% retail trader" is really going to trade 5 contracts of ES regularly with $50k capital - much more like 2-3, perhaps.

And I don't think he's going to take 6 points per day off ES, averaged out over the month, either. Less than that, on average, allowing for the reality that he's going to have some losing days, too.

These two factors, compounded together, actually make your estimate a significant exaggeration. In my opinion.

I honestly think about a quarter of your figure is much nearer the mark.
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With compounding at 3% per day ($1500) $50k turns to $86 million end of year. So, yeah, that number is a "little optimistic".
 
d08 said:
With compounding at 3% per day ($1500) $50k turns to $86 million end of year. So, yeah, that number is a "little optimistic".
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I made a quick simulation with the ES. Very quickly you would have to take already positions over 10,000 contracts ES at each trade. So indeed "optimistic", but at the same time proof that you cannot own the whole world as there will be financial limits. So this always repeated remark from the bashers is false.
 
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With ES 10,000 contracts isn't unrealistic unless you're scalping, you might take some slippage but you won't lift the whole market. The liquidity really is incredible.
 
d08 said:
With ES 10,000 contracts isn't unrealistic unless you're scalping, you might take some slippage but you won't lift the whole market. The liquidity really is incredible.
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OK then , let's go for $100 million! :strong:
 
d08 said:
With ES 10,000 contracts isn't unrealistic unless you're scalping, you might take some slippage but you won't lift the whole market. The liquidity really is incredible.
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Today POC is currently 42K contracts.
& 144K contracts exchanged within 2175.
Usually, You could easily lift 10K within 4 ticks.
 
The odds of someone doing laps in Black Creek with me this afternoon are pretty low. Actually, no one has done it besides me this summer, as far as I know. Maybe someone from the Whys guys and the Explainers can figure out a reason and entertain us all.
 
lawrence-lugar said:
The odds of day trading yourself to a profit are lower than you expect
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those odds are calculated based on statistics with the assumption that all people are the same in their abilities and starting points...

the day trader operates on the assumption that he is quite unique

when his assumptions is correct his odds are quite different
 
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