The Nut Trade in SP500 index

M

marketdecoder

Hi guys and gals,
Recently i have been engaging in giving out the analysis on stock, forex that i consider as the nut trade, the term that i coined comparable to the nut hand in poker. I am taking a look at SP500 index at the moment, and attempt to give my assessment on it at the nut level. My specialty is on pullback, not trending nor pushing in market, as i can pin point the target in a rather precise and consistent manner. In addition, i can see and feel the gravitional pull quite clearly if the weakness present itself after the push. My trading entry system is based on Base and Bonus entry, where base is initial early entry with small contract, followed by larger 2-5 times volume on the bonus entry at better, safer entry.
At this point, there are initial Selling presure from 1846, early begin from 1832, and must touch 1815 in a couple week.

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Sell
Base 1835
Bonus 1846-1852
STOP 1860

Must touch: 1815

Note: in longer term, it may be able to push further to 1862, but in a immediate short term, there are reasonable pressure from 1846 for a quick short sell that can go as low as 1795 upon must touching 1815 upcoming.

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P.S: this is just for me to put it on the record, and to officially see how consistent the Nut analysis can be across all instrument in stock, forex, gold, index.
 
How can you use the term "nut" for a trade and say it compares to its use in poker? If you have the nut in poker you are a guaranteed winner ... you have an unbeatable hand. Yet you are simply presenting what you consider a good (or even very good) trade.
 
Quote from marketdecoder:

Hi guys and gals,
Recently i have been engaging in giving out the analysis on stock, forex that i consider as the nut trade, the term that i coined comparable to the nut hand in poker. I am taking a look at SP500 index at the moment, and attempt to give my assessment on it at the nut level. My specialty is on pullback, not trending nor pushing in market, as i can pin point the target in a rather precise and consistent manner. In addition, i can see and feel the gravitional pull quite clearly if the weakness present itself after the push. My trading entry system is based on Base and Bonus entry, where base is initial early entry with small contract, followed by larger 2-5 times volume on the bonus entry at better, safer entry.
At this point, there are initial Selling presure from 1846, early begin from 1832, and must touch 1815 in a couple week.

=====
Sell
Base 1835
Bonus 1846-1852
STOP 1860

Must touch: 1815

Note: in longer term, it may be able to push further to 1862, but in a immediate short term, there are reasonable pressure from 1846 for a quick short sell that can go as low as 1795 upon must touching 1815 upcoming.

========

P.S: this is just for me to put it on the record, and to officially see how consistent the Nut analysis can be across all instrument in stock, forex, gold, index.
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Are you really going to start 100 threads trying to short every overbought product out there? If that's your game, take a number, we already have 1000 aliases on ET trying to top tick everything. Your analysis would make better sense if you simply said, it's "up too much" and leave it at that.
 
Hi everyone from each forum that i posted,
I am sorry for barging in and get off to the wrong foot. Please allow me to redo it.

I have been decoding forex market since 2002 (2000-2001 i do stock and e-mini sp500), you can say that i have my share of misery and heat taking since then. Until recently that i have found a very high degree of consistency that i seek through trial and error and extra feeling to the same signal set up the past 12 years. WHat make it unique is the logical relation between them that i am not to disclose yet. I 've been decoding both the push and pull force in the market, and find the pullforce to be more consistent and precise at the target that i can pinpoint for expected pullback. Though it is perceived to be safer to trade with push as it mostly trended, but for me personally, the pullback has become my primary focus. the good news is there are trended pull force in addition to the against-trend pull force which i differentiate each of them clearly.
As for the sp500 index, it is against trend pullforce, and the pressure appear from the area that indicated on the sell.

Two characteristics about this pull force analysis is:
1. the consistency on directional move that it will go down/up depend which way the pullback, meaning it will go down/up later once the signal is in place to begin the pullback.
2. once on track for pullback, it will pullback to certain target that i indicate on the must touch price. Due to the unique logical setup that i had, i can pin point this rather precise, and according to my experience, it is enough for me to say "must touch" (on stock, index i have to compensate a bit due to its cut off time, not 24 hours like forex)

the standard that i set for the consistency is quite high, i am like the people with OCD who are very picky and obsessed with cleanliness, where i have OCD with detail and precision of the analysis, and always ask why , how? until i no longer ask about that detail. If you see those mad scientist spent all the time in the lab with some projects in their head, constantly thinking, well that 's me and the lab is the market chart (composed of 32 small charts panel that you can find from realtick software that i paid probably total of more than 100K in fee alone since then at about 500/month). You can say that i have no life, but i had my share of life enough not to feel pity about it. But my goal has always been about the absolute sureness that i symbolically call the nut. And this is the first time recently that i truly feel that way, and this is the time that i feel excited. Finally i am experiencing the kind of stable earning that a salaried person would, but alot more in my ambition. And if you would please allow me , i would present the nut trade 10 times on each instrument type that i will analyze when opportunity present itself, it would give me an true reflection on where i am in accuracy and consistency externally. It is almost like i take all that time to get to my ph.d, and you guy are the one gonna give me the diploma, not any university. I realized that my barging in has caused negative reaction, especially i might have sound arrogant, boastful when speaking right onto the nut part, and it is my fault, and i will make it fun via the calling the bluff part soon enough.
 
I also did a re-evaluation on the timing of making the nut call on this thread, and decided that it would best be done after perfecting and successful hit target on the x2 model that i am working on in forex as it would create a solid foundation to push further on the nut calling. I think i am a little ahead of myself on trying to do both at the same time. So i will resume this thread upon better timing of completing the x2 model. Thank you for your attention thus far, and i'll be back.
 
i would say that it doesn't hurt to be respectful and polite on my part, apologize if i haven't shown such manner. As a nobody as i am at this point and probably will remained as such in your opinion, i am not expecting anything nor deserving it, just neutrally speak what i 've been working on. WHat i do appreciate though, is having a place to speak to that elitetrader forum provided, and any constructive attention from those who haven't spoken out with negative attitude though they could have felt like you did . I can assure you that my mind has a way of filter out unconstructive material, as i train it to be resilient and forward thinking, in which i truly realized it is the only way to see through the market, living through bad trades before without much of any negative reaction that result in roller coaster effect in psychology to minimize misery that many trader would face in their uncertainty of market movement.
 
Hi swan,
" Threats are never appreciated! ", i misread it to be "Threads are never appreciated!", thus the follow up on appreciation discussion, which i stand by that neutral attitude. Threats would never by my style, nor i am in any position to do so. But i apologize for the misreading.

Recently i write this to a fellow trader contacting me expressing his interest in what i am doing, " As hard as it is to gain high degree of sureness and consistency in market, it is even harder to control your mental state,",
As much as we all want to stay constructive, positive, and not spiraling down into the abyss of the miserable feeling after sizable losing trade, it is a fact of life for any trader to be miserable on weekly/monthly basis. I experienced many many of this before, and this is the biggest thing i identify myself with to any trader in this forum. As intelligent, dynamic human that we are, our brain is flawed in term of layered execution and balance and check and especially the overriding factor of the emotional brain to our logic. My quest is both decoding the market, and decoding the inner working of the brain, identify its flaw and fix it. I do not want to go through that long term in my trading career. However, there is direct correlation between the clarity of seeing through market and the Heat , stress level endured. The more you see, the less heat you feel, the smoother the trade, speaking from my personal experience and progression.
The fixes i made, in which I am not talking about the superficial positive saying or encouragement from others or yourself that only last a minute, hours, days, then you fall back into the same thing. This lack energy needed because we all have been using the wrong brain to do it. How wrong, just consider it as pressing on the gas , when your shift is in neutral, trying to go forward. And then we you can go forward, your hand brake is on. That is how wrong it is, after i come to realize the inner working of our brain. If you have heard of the crocodile brain, dog brain (which i prefer call octopus brain), and our intelligent brain inside us before, then in due time, i will share more about it and its fixed. I feel very obligated to share because i want traders to once for all have a normal life, as we are underratedly perceived from others as not having much schooling, skill needed, though some may make more than them, underratedly acknowledged of the stress we endure. Yet we act as an important participant that provide the liquidity that keep financial market aflow ( so that others job can be created) .
in the end, decoding the market for best clarity, and decoding the inner work of our brain for best efficiency, execution, and remain a stable normalcy have been what i have been doing, and elitetrader forum is a good start to begin my sharing further after i am done with the x2 model, that is the head up for now.






Quote from Swan Noir:

Threats are never appreciated!

:D
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Hi fellow traders,

I just want to briefly drop in and talk real time about the Base and Bonus entry system combined with the Nut analysis as Sp500 is moving accordingly after touching initial Bonus entry at 1846 with accumulation through 1852, as it touch 1848 multiple times on Tuesday and drop to 1841, and again today to 1835 at base entry. As for the protocol, Bonus is 2-5 times volume of Base, Bonus is to be taken profit multiple times as it is in safe zone after initial risk is absorbed by Base. In the example of Sp500, according to the protocol, as bonus already accumulate at larger volume at 1846-1852, whatever you already entered , you can begin take profit as it drop to Base price or a bit before Base, or a bit pass Base as long as you are happy with profit with Bigger volume on Bonus, and re-enter again if market rebound (still in safe zone of selling) and take profit again. This is what it meant by taking profit multiple time on Bonus as it is in bonus range.
The Base function is mainly to capture market frequently if it run early, absorb initial risk , and in case market touch bonus price, base is then mainly for break even/win little to target since we already make the bulk of profit on the Bonus.

For those who don't like to manage in such layered manner, then you can just let it ride all to final target at Must touch. However always take profit partially and gradually as it rides to target.
It is best that i explain these detail in real time now as market moving along accordingly at 1835, so later anybody who find the base bonus to fit your trading style can adapt it well soon enough.

I designed this system to execute with the Nut analysis on pullback as its advantage is on the correctness of pullback direction and must touch target, where entry must be managed in such manner of base bonus entry to consistently take advantage of the analysis. But for the sake of true accuracy of the Nut, it must go according to what i say to be qualified as the Nut, but if you go 1/2 way , you already have decent profit with base bonus system.

If you plan to trade with this system for years to come, then you must stick with it like "live by the rule, die by the rule" to be consistent throughout. You will find that Base will relieve much of your frustration due to missing action as market run early, though profit would not be much volume, but at least you got something so that you will be less likely to get frustrated and chase market.

Just a head up, upon me engaging deeper into Index analysis and with you guy partially or fully embracing it, i will be able to call the Nut trade on weekly basis as i look into SP500, NASDAQ, DOW indices. i will do so on weekend as I am quite focused on my main trading in Forex/Gold market on weekday, especially the X2 model at the moment. As plan, i will do 9 more the Nut analysis after this one finish its run and completion of the x2 model.

P.S one important thing i am also monitoring now is the compensation level in term of points on the landing price of the pull back on must touch price in comparison with the smoother 24-hour running of Forex market. I will re-summarize the crucial component of the Nut Trade upon finishing of this one before engaging in the next 9 call.
 
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