the Nut trade in Gold (comparable to the Nut hand in poker)

Quote from actionzip54:

I hate this trade. I trade gold and a few other markets full time and I wouldn't sell gold for any amount of money here.

You need to look deeper than just price to see this though. Sentiment is as silly to the downside as it was to the upside in 2011. In fact, many sentiment indicators are at there lowest levels in 13 years. We have the most shorts in 13 years. Etc. The dumb money is short and very short. Looks to me like people got really confident and got zapped for 40% and now with the metal still in an uptrend they all think it's a great time to get short. I think buying the precious metals around here could be a fantastic buying opp.

I started getting long the other day via the miners. I guess we will find out soon enough which way this thing is going.
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AZ54;
Good points, especially gold cash markets/trends

Yes i know many turtles study 54/+, 60 day trends, front month[FEB month gold];
54 minute, 58+/ minute trends for entry.


Some mature turtles study all the data, + 58oo years of gold, silver prices/+;
10 year candle charts?? Sure.

PS They play poker with paper cards, paper money; metal markets, mines may be diffrent.Sure i know we watched quarters[silver .25....], in pool hall gambling, as teens.But again that was a metal market,LOL.

So sure the shorts made a few days of short profits; fine .
Most gold, GLD ,SLV, silver ,gold front month trends are up.Dave Ramsey says most big banks are scum[scum horrible customer service]

That does not predict gold is going up; thats why i study long term trends/probabilities , 2.

:cool:

PS Wisdom is profitable to direct. None of this is a prediction,Huskeez.:cool:
 
Quote from rtiger29:

Actionzip, why dont you back off a little bit. This thread is starting to go way off topic. I mean, he is brave enough to make trade calls way in advance. Why dont you do the same Actionzip, instead of throwing stones. And then we can see how good of a trader you are. Thats the problem around here, people love to throw stones. But i bet the same people throwing the stones would never put themselves out there and make trade calls in advance. That shows big balls. And hes been right with his calls too, so give the man some credit.
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I have made calls. I actually started a journal thread, which I'm thinking about rekindling, that was going to be solely based on my precious metals trading but the opportunities weren't there just yet as I was too early.

I'm long the miners gdx/ gdxj right now but very small. I got long on monday and added a little to them today. My stop is under the range low of the last few months. I'm not looking for a short term move out of them. I'd say we have a pretty strong chance of a rally out of where we are at now. NFP will really give me a feel for where we are going. Any trading done the last few days in gold was just trading off of noise.

I usually don't make predictions because I feel like they skew my analysis and my objectivity. With that said if you want to know what I think about the miners and gold is that they will be much higher in the next 5 years. I would give gdx a chance that it could trade 200. Gold I would guess anywhere between the 5k to 10k range.

BTW it's not hard to make a market call. All you have to do is type it up or drool the words out of your mouth. What's hard is making money in the markets and that has nothing to do with "market calls". I never understood this sites obsession with that. The better traders I see that make calls do it as a way of "giving back" to other traders, not because they need some ego stroke or to show off their trading prowess.
 
Quote from actionzip54:

I have made calls. I actually started a journal thread, which I'm thinking about rekindling, that was going to be solely based on my precious metals trading but the opportunities weren't there just yet as I was too early.

I'm long the miners gdx/ gdxj right now but very small. I got long on monday and added a little to them today. My stop is under the range low of the last few months. I'm not looking for a short term move out of them. I'd say we have a pretty strong chance of a rally out of where we are at now. NFP will really give me a feel for where we are going. Any trading done the last few days in gold was just trading off of noise.

I usually don't make predictions because I feel like they skew my analysis and my objectivity. With that said if you want to know what I think about the miners and gold is that they will be much higher in the next 5 years. I would give gdx a chance that it could trade 200. Gold I would guess anywhere between the 5k to 10k range.

BTW it's not hard to make a market call. All you have to do is type it up or drool the words out of your mouth. What's hard is making money in the markets and that has nothing to do with "market calls". I never understood this sites obsession with that. The better traders I see that make calls do it as a way of "giving back" to other traders, not because they need some ego stroke or to show off their trading prowess.
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By way of intro here, biggest money I ever made was buying gold in the 300s in 2000 and 2001 and selling it in the 900s when it got there (don't remember the year). Paid for my son's college education in large part.
Haven't even looked at it in years, but just before opening this thread and reading it I'd dusted off my old models and worked up something on HUI. Turns out that if next week it closes in a range between 201 and 215 (above 215 would be too much too fast) it'll give a buy. Interesting.
After reading all this and seeing that on the HUI, worked up something on GLD. Also a buy, but it's been saying that for this whole big leg down so that signal's obviously wrong.
History-wise, the run-up to 850 in 1981 was a two-stage affair, with the first taking place right after gold's price was freed, and the second in the couple of years before blowing off at 850. I don't know if the next up move is the second stage in this one, but I think at this point it pays to position for it just in case. That GLD model may turn out to be right in a few years, just a little "early"... :p
 
I am expecting a short term pull back tomorrow, so i will call another Nut Sell on GOLD as followed
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GOLD 1252
SELL SHORT TERM
BASE 1257
BONUS 1263-1273 - peak out at 1277 for the week.
MUST TOUCH 1247
STOP 1282

NOTE: initial very short term is pulled back down to around 1250, that would create momentum for further drop by beginning of day tomorrow. Any further movement upward above 1250 would be good sell accumulation for the expected pullback by tomorrow/latest wednesday to 1250 - then 1247. It is strongly advised to follow the safe efficient execution of base bonus (take profit when you can at reasonable profit for both base and bonus, without having to reach must touch target, and use it as early exit reference point)
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GOLD went as high as 1255 yesterday, that i did get to accumulate a decent amount myself, before dropping to 1250 and now at 1248 area, which in my opinion would be great place to take place to take profit for any accumulated sell above 1250 as Noted. I would not pursue any further and focus on the next call.

P.S. Any trader who can get your hand on spot gold trading with margin requirement of about 2,000 USD per lot of 100 oz. would be very ideal to trade short term with 5-10 points with 1 points = 100 USD.
 
Quote from marketdecoder:

GOLD went as high as 1255 yesterday, that i did get to accumulate a decent amount myself, before dropping to 1250 and now at 1248 area, which in my opinion would be great place to take place to take profit for any accumulated sell above 1250 as Noted. I would not pursue any further and focus on the next call.

P.S. Any trader who can get your hand on spot gold trading with margin requirement of about 2,000 USD per lot of 100 oz. would be very ideal to trade short term with 5-10 points with 1 points = 100 USD.
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Good points Mr market;
not that i consider spot price + futures price the same markets:D Of course one could make a good case for being same market;
i am just sayinng i would not= to each his own:D

Thats strange but true, Mr W Buffet dosent seem to understand gold trends but a big buyer of silver, some times...............................................................................................:cool:
 
Quote from marketdecoder:

Any trader who can get your hand on spot gold trading with margin requirement of about 2,000 USD per lot of 100 oz. would be very ideal to trade short term with 5-10 points with 1 points = 100 USD.
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Here are IB's margin reqs for 100 oz futures:
NYMEX GC Gold GC 6343.75, 5075, 9062.50, 7250 USD
First 2 are intraday; last 2 are overnight

Surprisingly, the overnites are higher than those required by the exchange which is 7975, 7250.
 
marketdecoder,

It is getting really, really getting scary in this gold short you recommended. The high leverage is giving me insomnia. The trade is very much against me, but I just know it will come back in my favor.

But I have faith in you. The nuts cannot lose, right? When should I add to my position and take on full exposure with maximum leverage? I am ready to push the button when you say.

Sincerely yours, and ever grateful for your fantastic nut calls, Bry
 
HI bry,
I 've been very hard at work building a platform that based on my Nuts analysis and Base Bonus entry system with the real simulation of poker game for stock, index, gold, forex. you can see the clip here at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eQArLaL0Qg&sns=em , and tomorrow i will post the link for everybody to come in and follow real time of my call in addition to official post here at elitetrader. I am very excited about this platform as it depicts exactly what i have in mind to effectively communicate with audience in real time and it does have a chatroom for additional discussion without burdening the thread with off-topic comments.
As for GOLD, it showed to have additional pressure from 1263 areas and pushed pretty strong downward the past 2 days, Bry, i don't know what your entry on selling GOLD, but it should be good to exit at this point as it drop good from those 1250-60s area. The thing about me is I learned not to chase market and right now it is in the middle, but is building downward momentum to potentially go down further, and there is a Buy call on the horizon, that i will post upon right timing, and you will be able to see it real time via the platform link that i will post tomorrow.
 
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