the Nut trade in Gold (comparable to the Nut hand in poker)

M

marketdecoder

Hi fellow traders in Metal Forum,
Please allow me to introduce myself with regards to trading in GOLD market. I've spent a great deal of time (more than a decade to be exact) on decoding the Forex market to see the true signal that would result in highest consistency level that i would coin the term The Nut trade that symbolically resemble to the Nut hand in poker (for those who are familiar with poker).
During the process of trial and errors, i identify the Push and Pullback force in the market, and decided to focus on the Pullback force as primary trading area as it allow me to see the existence of the pullback force ahead of time with high precision in landing area of the Pullback force, compared to Pushing force that highly sensitive to the exact timing,that if you are late in the trend, you will be stuck at the mercy of the market.
I will attempt to make about 10 call on the pullback force on Gold upcoming, that i would label the Nut. This thread will serve as my public journal to the consistency of my assessment of the Nut trade that will allow me to reflect on my improvement down the road after spending a great deal of time and resource researching the forex market since 2002, in addition to my current finding to see if the knowledge can be applied across all instrument such as Stock, index, forex, gold. I will mainly send analysis on weekend, but since i am also trading Gold on daily basis, i may be able to deliver in more real time basis. With all due respect, I will begin posting upon spotting such opportunity.

P.S: there are 2 type of pullback force that i will identify upon posting, against trend, and trended.
 
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GOLD , currently at 1241
SHORT TERM / TRENDED
SELL
Base: 1245
Bonus: 1253-1258
STOP 1265
MUST TOUCH: 1235
Timeframe: next 1-2 days

Note: GOLD is in process of going up long term, but as for short term it will temporarily peaked out at 1260 this week that give us an opportunity to sell short this week. This selling in short term will be a 2 round process. First one is expected tomorrow, and upon touching target, it is expected to continue to bounce upward, with another Sell sometimes later close to end of this week.
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P.S Base is early entry , Bonus is bigger entry that would be 2-5 times Base volume.
 
Quote from marketdecoder:

----


GOLD , currently at 1241
SHORT TERM / TRENDED
SELL
Base: 1245
Bonus: 1253-1258
STOP 1265
MUST TOUCH: 1235
Timeframe: next 1-2 days

Note: GOLD is in process of going up long term, but as for short term it will temporarily peaked out at 1260 this week that give us an opportunity to sell short this week. This selling in short term will be a 2 round process. First one is expected tomorrow, and upon touching target, it is expected to continue to bounce upward, with another Sell sometimes later close to end of this week.
-----------

P.S Base is early entry , Bonus is bigger entry that would be 2-5 times Base volume.
More...

I hate this trade. I trade gold and a few other markets full time and I wouldn't sell gold for any amount of money here.

You need to look deeper than just price to see this though. Sentiment is as silly to the downside as it was to the upside in 2011. In fact, many sentiment indicators are at there lowest levels in 13 years. We have the most shorts in 13 years. Etc. The dumb money is short and very short. Looks to me like people got really confident and got zapped for 40% and now with the metal still in an uptrend they all think it's a great time to get short. I think buying the precious metals around here could be a fantastic buying opp.

I started getting long the other day via the miners. I guess we will find out soon enough which way this thing is going.
 
Hi Actionzip54,
Congratulate on your being able to BUY for long term recently. I myself and a buddy were waiting for a lower price range before entering a trade of sizable volume of GOLD in spot trading, it jumped a bit earlier than i expected, but accordingly with direction of BUY long term. This trade here is just short term sell for daytrading, the Continuation of BUY long term will be in place, but have to wait for the first pullback that i am expecting upcoming as it peaked short term at 1260.
As for the BUY long term, i am expecting it to make its move 2nd round after pulling back first( the first round is what we are seeing since after new year), and i will assess the target upon this BUY long term is being called. Basically at this point, i am making one move at a time on both sell short term and buy long term.
 
Also, there is no "nut hand" in trading because we will never have a hand that we "know" is the best possible hand and can not lose. Besides, most of your money in poker is made from non nut hands.
 
Hi actionzip54,
I had this same discussion regarding the Nut term in stock forum when i give out the Nut sell call on Facebook , as one user had the same reflection as yours when he said there is no preemptive Nut, so i won't go into much details here. I used it more in term of symbolic for the assessment of certainty, but technically it could be as i said if you find my argument to be valid from the stock forum.
 
Quote from marketdecoder:

----


GOLD , currently at 1241
SHORT TERM / TRENDED
SELL
Base: 1245
Bonus: 1253-1258
STOP 1265
MUST TOUCH: 1235
Timeframe: next 1-2 days

Note: GOLD is in process of going up long term, but as for short term it will temporarily peaked out at 1260 this week that give us an opportunity to sell short this week. This selling in short term will be a 2 round process. First one is expected tomorrow, and upon touching target, it is expected to continue to bounce upward, with another Sell sometimes later close to end of this week.
-----------

P.S Base is early entry , Bonus is bigger entry that would be 2-5 times Base volume.
More...


marketdecoder,
spot gold hit just above 1245 an hour ago, I AM MASSIVELY SHORT NOW, thanks for the great tip!
bry
 
I actually I made an error in my previous post. The nut hand isn't always the best hand out especially in a game like PLO where a player can be getting his money in bad with the nuts because of redraws.

This makes your example even sillier.
 
hi actionzip54,
I think it gonna be sillier if we get more technical into the symbolic naming. If i say you are einstein smart, then it is symbolically saying you are smart type that people would recognize, even technically you are not same age as him, not same race, same height, etc... i can name a few more among millions that we human tend to do the symbolic refering such as: elephant foot, laser sharp focus , etc.
However, as long as the symbolic naming is relevant and has it merits then it would be more/less justified. You can call these trade silly trade for all that matter, but it s better that it is relevant. My calling it the Nut trade must have its merits of being precise and highest certainty of winning as for directional and must touch target during that period of time by market moving in such manner after my call. In this case, For initial move, it may considered to have merits and be relevant to the name the Nut that market dropped accordingly approaching very close to must touch target around 1236, though must touch target is stated 1235 at before the upward reaction again. I did summarize the crucial component of the Nut trade on Stock forum, and i will do with this forum at a later time. Your insight is constructive and i am all ear, but for now i will pause conversing any other off topic and focus back to what i am here to do with this thread.
 
On the 2nd move, it touched The Base entry 1245 and begin dropping again accordingly to 1237 close to must touch area of 1235, but as Bry pointed out, it didn't touch any entry on the first move, which is totally normal in the market where it jump before our expected price of entry, what important at this point is
1. the directional correctness within given timeframe
2. approaching of the Must touch target.
The entry part can be improvised down the road after these 2 main crucial component are well established.
At this point, i would find it appropriate to talk about the Base Bonus entry system, and i will do a copy and paste from Index forum when i give the Nut sell on SP500.

"As for the protocol, Bonus is 2-5 times volume of Base, Bonus is to be taken profit multiple times as it is in safe zone after initial risk is absorbed by Base. In the example of Sp500, according to the protocol, as bonus already accumulate at larger volume at 1846-1852, whatever you already entered , you can begin take profit as it drop to Base price or a bit before Base, or a bit pass Base as long as you are happy with profit with Bigger volume on Bonus, and re-enter again if market rebound (still in safe zone of selling) and take profit again. This is what it meant by taking profit multiple time on Bonus as it is in bonus range.
The Base function is mainly to capture market frequently if it run early from the Base, absorb initial risk , and in case market touch bonus price, base is then mainly for break even/win little to target since we already make the bulk of profit on the Bonus.

For those who don't like to manage in such layered manner, then you can just let it ride all to final target at Must touch. However always take profit partially and gradually as it rides to target.
It is best that i explain these detail in real time now as market moving along accordingly at 1835, so later anybody who find the base bonus to fit your trading style can adapt it well soon enough."

One last thing, and for the record, this is what i write to a fellow trader via pm on dec 26 2013, " Ego, self importance, self center are one of the heaviest load in any human, it is like racing in NASCAR with a big fat passenger . I dropped this big fat guy for a quite awhile ago, and if he somehow hitchhiked behind my back and got in, i'll kick him off again on any given day. As i know i want to be light focused while speeding in the market. ".

I had proved that by not making fun of my fellow trader nor jabbing back at them (as it is justified and rightfully for me to do so when facebook and sp500 dropped accordingly) nor celebratedly boastful upon being correct, as to me at this point, it is not exotic nor special to be able to call the Nut on daily basis after all the mental training i endured and the thorough systematic decoding process that i went through in the past decade. It is an established fact for me that the emotional mind serve to limit my potential and corrupt my logic, provoking negatively that result in blind judgement, war of words that would in return cause distraction, gaps and hesitation in execution.
 
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