The Nut Trade in Forex (comparable to the Nut hand in poker)

M

marketdecoder

Hi guys and gals,
While working on fine tuning the x2 model, I will begin to inform those trades that i considered to be the Nut Trade for medium term (swinging about 2h-1 day). It is comparable to the Nut hand that you would see in poker that i am sure many of you are familiar with. In poker, you have the Nut, you win. Next week i will call the first one on Selling USDJPY around sunday evening when market begin (if it hasn't run early yet when market open) . Here are the protocols, I will provide the entry points divided into the Base Bonus entry system that i 've been implementing in my trading, and the target that it must touch. The nut factor is the directional correctness and the target that it MUST touch. Again, to establish credential and make it interesting, I will allocate 500 USD for each the Nut call i make, and give out to the first 5 user that call my bluff thinking that i don't have the nut hand , just like in poker, except that you only need to call 1 usd for 100 Usd pot, payment via paypal. So instead of ridiculing or negative comments when i am wrong, it will be replaced with the pot reward, and we 'll move on to the next trade in peace. I will attempt to do 10 the nut trades in Forex on this thread. I just drop one in Stock forum on selling facebook stock, though not explaining thoroughly the protocols yet, but will be later as stock is not my specialty just yet, but will be down the road.

A bit on Base, Bonus entry system. It is just like any regular job, you make a base salary and a bonus at end of year or month. The volume is preset to allocate on Base and Bonus level, where the Bonus volume will be 2-5 times the Base. THe base entry are extensively entered to absorb the initial risk and early entry. In case market run early, we still cash in on the base volume frequently. If the price continue to pass the base and into the better price that i am waiting, then i will begin enter Bonus volume that is 2-5 times the volume on the Base. The entry system is designed so that the Base is to absorb intial risk and capture the early run frequently while being able to capture the safer better price at bigger volume on Bonus .
When taking profit with this system, you can go ahead and take profit on bonus any time you see fit as the volume is signficant bigger than base, and reenter later many times as the risk area is already been absorbed by base, and let the base go til break even or win a little. In term of my call on the nut, it must touch the target to be precise on my part, where you could already make good profit with market not having to touch my target.

This entry system only work if my analysis is on the money on the correctness of directional pull and Pull back target price or at least back to the Base entry, and that is my specialty. It work extremely well with Pullback type of analysis. Simply put, "what go up, must go down", "what go down, must go up" factor is one of my main focus during decoding, and base bonus entry is to materializing this pullback potential. After thorough experiencing on my part up to now, my confidence on this pullback target is high enough to begin making the call on the Nut Trade.

For those who make the call on my bluff publicly on this thread, just say "call", and afterward please pm me your paypal email after any the nut trade proved to be wrong. Wrong = touch reasonable stop price indicated when making call. Correct = touch target within timeframe given. If i decide to end the trade a bit early close to target but not touching it, and we are winning, i 'll payout 1/2 the pot as indicate as i am not absolute precise yet. In the end, winning in the nut fashion is what important.
 
One more note on the protocol, in case market run early to must-touch target without touch neither base nor bonus, it's a draw, but will give credential to the directional and must touch target on analysis.

Just a very respectful and friendly reminder to those traders who had yet to gain the natural patient waiting for the opportunity after spotting it. Just look at real life big house, beautiful mansion that you love to own. In it, there are a lot of void space in living room, bedroom, bathroom, that give it the big grande impression on the outside or while you are in it. Think of your patience is that big void space, and your mentality to trade is the big house. The bigger the void that make up your waiting patiently, the grande your house gonna be and being able to accommodate many many good trades (comparable to your big house that can accommodate many of your family members, friends). I hope that my analogy will let you see a part of the big picture in surviving in this silently cut throat trading biz.
Back to the USDJPY, My initial target in short term was at 103.85 when i was mentioning on Saturday, but the pace of the slow moving due to holiday when market open today doesn't create that active Nut feeling for me yet, but to give you a head up on a more medium term, I am looking at pressuring from 104.6-104.8 as the main entry for Base bonus (and it will get lower when i officially give out the Nut trade when market move a bit faster again) with initial target to 103.6 this week , and as of a longer term picture dealt with on monthly chart, it must touch the least at 103 and further below sometimes later next month, so i will continue to focus on the shorting side on the Nut trade. Below will be a sample of nut trade
--------------
SELL
base: 104.6
bonus: 104.8-105.2
(bonus = 2-5 times base)
must touch: 103.6

note: may run early if being pressure from 104.2 and can not pass 104.2, long term must touch 103 at least by next month.

call: 1 usd - 100 USD ( it can go as high as 1 usd - 200 USD ) depend on how solid i feel on the nut ( think of it as straight flush nut vs. full house nut vs. circumstantial nut depend on what the card currently look like on the table), max 5 call.
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I will give out something similar to what you see on the sample nut trade on USDJPY as market go up a little bit, so i can feel the potential dropping before giving out officially.
 
Hi everyone from each from that i posted,
I am sorry that i was barging in and get off to the wrong foot. Please allow me to redo it.

I have been decoding forex market since 2002 (2000-2001 i do stock and e-mini sp500), you can say that i have my share of misery and heat taking since then. Until recently that i have found a very high degree of consistency that i seek through trial and error and extra feeling to the same signal set up the past 12 years. WHat make it unique is the logical relation between them that i am not to disclose yet. I 've been decoding both the push and pull force in the market, and find the pullforce to be more consistent and precise at the target that i can pinpoint for expected pullback. Though it is perceived to be safer to trade with push as it mostly trended, but for me personally, the pullback has become my primary focus. the good news is there are trended pull force in addition to the against-trend pull force which i differentiate each of them clearly.

Two characteristics about this pull force analysis is:
1. the consistency on directional move that it will go down/up depend which way the pullback, meaning it will go down/up later once the signal is in place to begin the pullback.
2. once on track for pullback, it will pullback to certain target that i indicate on the must touch price. Due to the unique logical setup that i had, i can pin point this rather precise, and according to my experience, it is enough for me to say "must touch" (on stock, index i have to compensate a bit due to its cut off time, not 24 hours like forex)

the standard that i set for the consistency is quite high, i am like the people with OCD who are very picky and obsessed with cleanliness, where i have OCD with detail and precision of the analysis, and always ask why , how? until i no longer ask about that detail. If you see those mad scientist spent all the time in the lab with some projects in their head, constantly thinking, well that 's me and the lab is the market chart (composed of 32 small charts panel that you can find from realtick software that i paid probably total of more than 100K in fee alone since then at about 500/month). You can say that i have no life, but i had my share of life enough not to feel pity about it. But my goal has always been about the absolute sureness that i symbolically call the nut. And this is the first time recently that i truly feel that way, and this is the time that i feel excited. Finally i am experiencing the kind of stable earning that a salaried person would, but alot more in my ambition. And if you would please allow me , i would present the nut trade 10 times on each instrument type that i will analyze when opportunity present itself, it would give me an true reflection on where i am in accuracy and consistency externally. It is almost like i take all that time to get to my ph.d, and you guy are the one gonna give me the diploma, not any university. I realized that my barging in has caused negative reaction, especially i might have sound arrogant, boastful when speaking right onto the nut part, and it is my fault, and i will make it fun via the calling the bluff part soon enough after christmas.
 
Quote from marketdecoder:

It is comparable to the Nut hand that you would see in poker that i am sure many of you are familiar with.
More...

In poker, you have the "nut hand" when there is an absolute certainty that your hand is the best, even if you don't know what the other players hold. There is no such certainty in the financial markets.
 
Amen.

Quote from nonlinear5:

In poker, you have the "nut hand" when there is an absolute certainty that your hand is the best, even if you don't know what the other players hold. There is no such certainty in the financial markets.
More...
 
I also did a re-evaluation on the timing of making the nut call on this thread, and decided that it would best be done after perfecting and successful hit target on the x2 model that i am working on in forex as it would create a solid foundation to push further on the nut calling. I think i am a little ahead of myself on trying to do both at the same time. So i will resume this thread upon better timing of completing the x2 model. Thank you for your attention thus far, and i'll be back.
 
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