Sure
The no BS, obfuscation-free price action thread
- Thread starter 1a2b3cppp
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Sure
Thank you for your efforts! But...
this reminds me of the many examples you find in all the trading books. They show on a chart how the method works perfectly. Well, perfectly in a specific part of the chart. But what about the areas on the left that led to that example? What about the areas on the right which are also not annotated? What's wrong with those areas?
You always have to remind yourself that when you do it in realtime that you have one bar after another coming in. You don't see any bars in the future but at each bar you have to decide if this is the beginning of the example that is shown or the end or neither nor. When and how would you know this in realtime?
So at the end it is as good as this:
Quote from frenchfry:
Thank you for your efforts! But...
this reminds me of the many examples you find in all the trading books. They show on a chart how the method works perfectly. Well, perfectly in a specific part of the chart. But what about the areas on the left that led to that example? What about the areas on the right which are also not annotated? What's wrong with those areas?
You always have to remind yourself that when you do it in realtime that you have one bar after another coming in. You don't see any bars in the future but at each bar you have to decide if this is the beginning of the example that is shown or the end or neither nor. When and how would you know this in realtime?
So at the end it is as good as this:
If PA analysis stopped at HH HL LH LL examination, I would agree, but it only begins there. I also see nothing wrong with the multi channel/projection annotation that you did.
In the end, you are only trying to follow price by using a game of probability not particularly trying to be Nostradamus.
Again, only the beginning.
You would still need bar/candle analysis.
Momentum analysis.
Volume analysis.
Multi timeframe analysis.
Pattern development.
Time analysis.
And last but certainly not least, discipline, position, money and risk management.
And as you can see that goes beyond the scope of this thread, even this board.
If we take this as curriculum, would you recommend to first study HH, HL, LH and LL?
Then the first thing to learn would be to distinguish between a "significant" new LH, HH, etc.?
For example: We have a new LH. At which point and how would we make a decision that this is an important change in direction and that we should go short now? Maybe recognizing the new LH is not enough? We maybe need something else to confirm? To confirm a) that we have a new LH and b) that the price direction changed.
Or maybe we should start somewhere else?
You said it, "recognizing the new LH is not enough", this LH in the case of a change of a trend will only serve you as means of stop placement, as you would need the LL to recognize the LH as LH.
This makes sense. I have a little background in martial arts. When you learn martial arts, you learn basic methods of dealing with different attacks. You then have to actually practice them against a resisting opponent (a lot of schools don't do this part and therefore don't produce students who can actually defend themselves, but that's another topic). Each student hopefully learns how to make the basics work for him. If the same person throws the same punch at us, we may both apply the same technique in a similar but different way. What works for you may not work for me and vice versa.
I think this is analogous to trading. We both may see the same price action but respond differently. But in the end we both want to be long when price is going up.
Trading forums are a lot like martial arts forums. There are a lot of people talking about how they would defeat UFC champions by using some secret technique but none of these people have even fought in a low level tournament. Some of them have never even trained against a resisting opponent. Some of them may open up schools and charge ridiculous prices and give their students the mistaken idea that they are learning how to fight when the teacher has no experience and is just making it up (this was common in the "ninja boom" of the 80s when suddenly everyone was a ninja who was taught by some secret master whose name they were sworn to never reveal. In actuality there were one or two ninjutsu schools who had verifiable lineages that could be traced back to Japan and verified by the Japanese as being authentic. The rest were a bunch of wannabe posers trying to cash in on the ninja craze). Remind you of any trading "gurus"? Huge claims, no proof, no profitable students, speaking in riddles?
But I digress. Bruce Lee said absorb what is useful, disregard the rest. I think that's what traders need to do, too.
Cannot dumb it down to an indicator, you must manually do the wave analysis, and I said earlier, this is only the beginning.
Yes, otherwise I would not be giving trading advice like so many do.