Nice thread. Not sure I can offer much, but I would share my view on a couple of your premises with which I do not totally agree and how it has helped me with PA.
You believe: "Price action is random"
and you also ask: "One of my questions was why does price sometimes bounce off of certain S/R levels but other times go right through it."
My view, which, once accepted, has relieved me from the chore of seeking the "holy grail" on how to identify which s/r will hold or not, is accepting that there are many things that drive price movement.
In simplest terms, lets just say that news items, government actions, military actions, etc. move the markets. These big movers trigger trades of massive size and it is pretty much a tidal wave until one side is depleted. During these events TA and PA are pretty much useless and people who do not recognize the environment and still try to apply them conclude that the market is "random".
When the influence of those tsunami type events fades, then the structure resulting from the placement of stops, targets, etc. become more prevalent, and s/r levels are honored more often as they only represent where entry/exits/stops occur. Basic human fear/greed instincts are constant.
On the other extreme. When there is total lack of direction TA and PA also do not work, because you see only the small plalyers jumping onto setups which receive no support due to some pending uncertainity in the market keeping the larger players out. Just the novice traders and guys running stops playing then. Usually setting up a range. Again, an environment to avoid.
I hope this did not violate any of your posting conditions, but the concept has helped me.
You believe: "Price action is random"
and you also ask: "One of my questions was why does price sometimes bounce off of certain S/R levels but other times go right through it."
My view, which, once accepted, has relieved me from the chore of seeking the "holy grail" on how to identify which s/r will hold or not, is accepting that there are many things that drive price movement.
In simplest terms, lets just say that news items, government actions, military actions, etc. move the markets. These big movers trigger trades of massive size and it is pretty much a tidal wave until one side is depleted. During these events TA and PA are pretty much useless and people who do not recognize the environment and still try to apply them conclude that the market is "random".
When the influence of those tsunami type events fades, then the structure resulting from the placement of stops, targets, etc. become more prevalent, and s/r levels are honored more often as they only represent where entry/exits/stops occur. Basic human fear/greed instincts are constant.
On the other extreme. When there is total lack of direction TA and PA also do not work, because you see only the small plalyers jumping onto setups which receive no support due to some pending uncertainity in the market keeping the larger players out. Just the novice traders and guys running stops playing then. Usually setting up a range. Again, an environment to avoid.
I hope this did not violate any of your posting conditions, but the concept has helped me.
