I have some respect for Sweet Bobby's point of view , he's not criticizing buy and hold or being long in a bull mkt , but letting winners run , what if your winners were short sells , you'd probably go bust in a bull mkt , letting winners run, probably is mildly positve in terms of probability , but it's hard to see it being much more than 50%( certainly not reaching 60%)( "profit factor" for pedantic twats) without some sort of rule or filter.
The NO. 1 Secret Of Success In Trading
- Thread starter MarketAddict
- Start date
I believe in the concept of evolution. Survival of the fittest. Natural Selection. Mass Extinction. So how does evolution fit in modern humans?
I think ideas, personal beliefs, personality traits, psychology, etc are what defines modern humans. And there are a bunch of these ideas for Modern Human to choose from. Obviously traders have differing and opposing belief system. Sure they can be profitable for a period of time. But the true test is Time and if they can Survive. Market conditions will change and they will need to adapt or die. In acadamia it's called "publish or perish"
And what is evolution on grand scale? Periods of growth (species reproduce and multiply) follow by periods of destruction (mass extinction). The complete quote is
"Survival of the Fittest.
It is not the strongest species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change.
It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, but rather, that which is most adaptable to change."
P.S. if you didn't get the analogy. In finance period of growth (bull markets) is follow by period of destruction (bear markets)
I never claimed to have found the holy grail. I’m honored that you think I’ve found it. Thanks for the compliment.
Thank you. Just made $100 so far today at the opening bell.
My mentor doesn’t believe risk/reward ratio. He like to buy at resistance line. He doesn’t believe in average winner vs loser. He doesn’t use indicators. So I had to cut him short.
First I’ll say, there is not only one (or even a couple) methods that “work” in the market. There are many ways to skin a cat, the trick is finding a method you believe in and works for your set of beliefs. That being said, the method also needs to have an edge. But all this talk of “I let my profits run” vs “I give my losers a bit more time” or “Technical analyst guys do X which is wrong” vs “I only look at charts which is the right way” is all misguided in my opinion. Everybody evolution will be different, just b/c people do different things (even if they are the complete opposite) doesn’t mean one is wrong and one is right. There are "right" things for certain personality types and different "right" ways for others.
I will say though, you can tell the level people are at many times by how they speak. I look at longer term statistics in my trading (rolling sharpe, rolling MAR, rolling sorentino, etc). I know focusing on those, and controlling risk, will work wonders over time, assuming my methodology has an edge (which i satisfied myself that is does through long term backtesting). People that talk about how they made $100 bucks in 10 minutes shows they haven’t leveled up yet IMO.
I will say though, you can tell the level people are at many times by how they speak. I look at longer term statistics in my trading (rolling sharpe, rolling MAR, rolling sorentino, etc). I know focusing on those, and controlling risk, will work wonders over time, assuming my methodology has an edge (which i satisfied myself that is does through long term backtesting). People that talk about how they made $100 bucks in 10 minutes shows they haven’t leveled up yet IMO.
I also made $500 in 5 minutes last Friday. How u like them apples?
Start a journal and post a few of those trades. Sounds like you're on a roll.
Controlling risk will not work wonders over time , over time probability ( profit factor for pedantic twats ) is everything. With good probability tightly controlling risk will waste opportunity , without probability tightly controlling risk will waste your time . I know that George Soros and Warren Buffet have taken big risks at times, if you last in this game you'll make thousands of trades ,you'll look back and realise the bottom line is all about probability and is generally hurt with tight money management , but never hurt by higher probability trades. Most on here talk a lot about money management and most arn't profitable.
I did started my journal from the first day I started 6 months ago. Best book I ever read about trading I must admit. I learn a lot from it. And no it is private. U ain’t getting my secrets. Maybe one day I’ll publish it.