The next level...

Quote from funky:

lol, what a joke, i had no idea the journey ahead of me....it would take me on about a 6 month journey of finding myself. finally, after about 12 months and ton of trading days, i have realized the power of my math and logic background, not to mention my programming skills.
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You're quick! I think it took me almost 3 years befoe I had the first truly profitable EOD system. Probably 2 before my intraday methodology worked on more than small portfolio of stocks. Well done!
 
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

I think this is so important. I'm not a systems trader, but I did a lot of backtesting several years ago, and it was very valuable for me. It's at least as important knowing what doesn't work as what does. Suffice to say that most of what passes for trading methodology will not test profitably over time. That is not to say that a gifted discretionary trader can't make money trading a poor approach, for example intraday breakouts. He may have the skills or instincts to know when to use that approach, and it can be next to impossible to program that intuitive or cognitive filter.
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Im curious why you say intraday breakout trading a poor aproach? This type of market condition is perfect for trading intraday breakouts!!
 
Quote from c_verm:

Im curious why you say intraday breakout trading a poor aproach? This type of market condition is perfect for trading intraday breakouts!!
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I wondered if someone would jump on that. B/o systems have poor win/loss ratios and depend on big winners to make money, but if you are trading intraday only you are usually exiting too early to let the trade play out. Also, you are vulnerable to stop running, which is a common occurrence in futures. A b/o strategy gives you a very poor entry in most cases. Instead of buying a pullback, for example, you are buying the extreme.

Certainly there are markets where this strategy will work, but it requires big stops and the discipline to hold winners.
 
bundle...thx, i don't know how to 'stimulate' your creativity. as you probably have found out by now, the best way is to just learn as you go. once you learn how to program in a couple languages, the rest are easy once you understand syntax.

good luck with your endeavors....

Quote from bundlemaker:

Funky,

I have begun to come to this same conclusion. Kudoos on figuring this out much faster than myself. For a long time, I resisted the notion of anything resembling an automated strategy. Just wouldn't believe that sort of thing would work. I believe otherwise now.

I do have a major problem, and I'd sincerely appreciate your input. I'm no programmer. Every time I start trying to learn more, I go into brain lock. I like math and statistics. But the programming part is such a hurdle. I've played with Tradestation Easy Language and can do some simple stuff. Beyond that, I don't really know where to start with searching for a useful pattern or how to implement.

My question to you boils down to this I think: do you have any suggestions on how to stimulate creativity in this area, and do you think a non-programmer can just slog his way through, learning as he goes.

thanks,
bundle
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yeah, i can't believe (well mabye i can) how many people on this board complain about having trouble trading; not knowing why they are losing?!??! there are very easy ways to determine expectancy, and things don't change THAT quickly. my advice to most persons on this board: get a backtesting tool AND USE IT.

i think many people are actually afraid to backtest. why? because they fear that their 'plan' is a failure. they would rather accept fate, then to find out if they are on the right track or not. you might laugh at this, but i believe in this 100%. why else would you have all these people trying to figure out why they aren't profitable? to me, that's the easiest part about trading.

you might be right for a 'gifted' discretionary trader, but not for the other 99% of profitable traders. if you are a wannabe trader, then you must deal in odds. for high odds of making it in this business, develop a system. you aren't gonna make money by 'feeling' the market.

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

I think this is so important. I'm not a systems trader, but I did a lot of backtesting several years ago, and it was very valuable for me. It's at least as important knowing what doesn't work as what does. Suffice to say that most of what passes for trading methodology will not test profitably over time. That is not to say that a gifted discretionary trader can't make money trading a poor approach, for example intraday breakouts. He may have the skills or instincts to know when to use that approach, and it can be next to impossible to program that intuitive or cognitive filter.
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i'm not sure i DID survive pittsburgh ;) yeah, what a fucking black hole that city is. if new jersey is the armpit of america, pittsburgh is the butthole of america.

anywhoo, i completely agree with you. for me, and i think for most people, developing a system and seeing how it works and changes over time and markets, really gives you a great take on other people (traders).

right now i'm trying to understand why different variants of my system work on certain markets. very perplexing, but i'm starting to see things that i would have never thought of before.

systems give us a compass. like you say, a person with a compass who doesn't know how to use it is worth no more than a person without a compass. but having that compass is surely a better idea for most new traders. with that compass, they can begin to ask the right questions.

Quote from Soesman:

Carnegie-Mellon, wow Funky, I am impressed! How did you survive Pittsburg!

I have been a trader for the past 10 years, managing many larger firms along the way and testing many methods and even more execution systems, from Black Boxes, grey Boxes, darts etc., and to tell ya the truth, the best method I have found is understanding people. its people we trade against. The money you want to make in the market is right now in someone elses pocket and he has no intention of giving it up easily. Trading methods all have their merits, but understanding people is very much a key part of the game.
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Quote from Runningbear:

Which backtesting platform are you using?
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I recently saw a demo of this system development tool and was impressed:
http://www.tradeoptimizer.com/

I don't use canned development and testing tools, because I have a programming background and prefer to roll my own.

[Richard]
 
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